Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I voted by mail on Thursday, because Scotland

[Epaminondas]

Higher than normal turnout almost definitely benefits PiS and not PO.

Why is this?
Are Polish youth reliable voters, and the elderly fickle?

[Lord Halifax]

Higher than normal turnout almost definitely benefits PiS and not PO.

Why is this?
Are Polish youth reliable voters, and the elderly fickle?

PiS have more low educated and poor voters, PO is the urban middle class party.

[H. Ross Peron]

What will be the biggest city that PiS will win in a roughly 50-50 result?

[Oryxslayer]

More turnout maps.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What will be the biggest city that PiS will win in a roughly 50-50 result?

Probably Rzeszów, maybe Lublin.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What will be the biggest city that PiS will win in a roughly 50-50 result?

Probably Rzeszów, maybe Lublin.

Actually Radom is also a strong possibility, I always forget it's bigger than Rzeszów.

[Bidenworth2020]

More turnout maps.

Who is this map good for?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Kaczyński's been trolled while voting:





The shirt says "conquer the evil with laughter".

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

More turnout maps.

Who is this map good for?

TBH good and bad for both candidates. Although weak increases in Lower Silesia and Greater Poland are not really good for Trzaskowski.

[Hope For A New Era]

When can we expect full results?

[Keep Calm and ...]

Change in turnout seems to be very high in rural areas

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282364824446525440

<5000 inhabitants
...
>500.000

[Oryxslayer]

More turnout maps.

Who is this map good for?

TBH good and bad for both candidates. Although weak increases in Lower Silesia and Greater Poland are not really good for Trzaskowski.

It also bears stating that in some areas, even strongholds, the Voivodeship is too large of a geography to infer anything from. Rural Mazovia is going to vote very differently than Warsaw, her environs, or Plock. Only fools attempt to predict results by turnout, no matter what contest, no matter who comprises the electorate.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

More turnout maps.

Who is this map good for?

TBH good and bad for both candidates. Although weak increases in Lower Silesia and Greater Poland are not really good for Trzaskowski.

It also bears stating that in some areas, even strongholds, the Voivodeship is too large of a geography to infer anything from. Rural Mazovia is going to vote very differently than Warsaw, her environs, or Plock.

I just found a county map of the increases.

https://twitter.com/pdjezierski/status/1282365603823714306?s=19

Biggest increases seem to be in places where people usually go on vacation.

[Tender Branson]

Question:

If tourists vote elsewhere (coast, woods where they go hiking), is their vote counted where they vote ? Or where they usually live ?

In Austria, if people vote in precincts other than their own, the vote counts in the town they are living ... (that is only the case for our parliamentary elections though, to determine the number of seats in each electoral district - not in presidential elections, where there are no seats to be determined by district).

Tourists voting elsewhere also complicate comparisons of turnout between the regions and between each round of voting ...

[Walmart_shopper]

Change in turnout seems to be very high in rural areas

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282364824446525440

<5000 inhabitants
...
>500.000

The dark red in the northeast is Poland's lake country, with various boutique villages in which people have cabins, homes, boats, etc. The southern red splotch is a giant national park. You are seeing the biggest increases among all of these tiny summer resort towns.

In any case, a 3% increase in a big city is vastly better than a 10% increase in a podunk lake town if you are trying to rack up votes.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Question:

If tourists vote elsewhere (coast, woods where they go hiking), is their vote counted where they vote ? Or where they usually live ?

I'm quite sure their vote is counted where they vote.

In case of Poles voting abroad, votes are being counted in Warsaw, both in presidential and parliamentary elections.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Change in turnout seems to be very high in rural areas

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282364824446525440

<5000 inhabitants
...
>500.000

The dark red in the northeast is Poland's lake country, with various boutique villages in which people have cabins, homes, boats, etc. The southern red splotch is a giant national park. You are seeing the biggest increases among all of these tiny summer resort towns.

In any case, a 3% increase in a big city is vastly better than a 10% increase in a podunk lake town if you are trying to rack up votes.

Yes, it's not just coastal towns/villages people on holiday are voting.

If the election was being held in the autumn, you'd be seeing a lower turnout for that reason.

[Walmart_shopper]

Duda is done. I am just going to call it even at the risk of (again) getting egg all over my face.

[Double Carpet]

I really can't see Duda losing, sorry.

Trzaskowski at 2-1 on Betfair if you think otherwise.

[Mike88]

Turnout projected at 68.9%

[Storr]

Turnout projected at 68.9%

If only US elections could have turnout that high....*sigh*

[jaichind]

Exit poll has Duda ahead 50.4-49.6

[Mike88]

Exit poll has Duda ahead 50.4-49.6

Not bad by prediction then. Still, it's very, very close.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The margin of error is 1%, btw. Ipsos are saying it's too close to call.