Polish Politics and Elections

[Bidenworth2020]

So would I be correct to say that turnout reports look pretty good for Duda as of now?

[Walmart_shopper]

So would I be correct to say that turnout reports look pretty good for Duda as of now?

Not really. He probably has a marginal edge just looking at the 1200 official numbers, but certain key PiS strongholds are down, anecdotally the cities woke up at about noon and are looking better now, and a lot of the rural turnout spike may come from urban voters on holiday in lake resorts. In other words, the turnout reports from 1200 are probably more likely to favor Duda than not, but even the picture from those reports is murky and the 1700 reports should clarify things some more.

[Lord Halifax]

Betfair now has Duda at 1.1 and Rafal Trzaskowski at 3.0, so if you believe Trzaskowski will win there is some easy money to be made.

[Mike88]

I believe it will be very close, but my hunch is that Duda will pull out a squeaker. In the first round, both Duda and Trzaskowski overperformed the average polls by more than 2%. But Duda outperformed by more 0.2% than Trzaskowski.

The average of polls in the second round gives Duda 50.3% and Trzaskowski 49.7%, so I would say Duda wins by a 50.5% to 49.5% margin.

We'll see but I would like Trzaskowski to win.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gdansk 5pm turnout up more than 3% from Round 1

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Exit poll will show nothing. We will probably have to wait for all votes, even those from diaspora.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 5pm was 58%, up almost 4% from Round 1. The cities have really started to turn out. It is going to be close.

Where are you getting the numbers from ?

PKW has no 5pm results yet.

And final 5pm numbers from round 1 were at 47.89% ...

I deleted it because it was a local turnout number and not a national one. National figures should be out any second.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Walmart shopper, make sure you're not getting your info from the Kondominium Twitter account. That guy is infamous for s--tting up Polish Twitter with misinformation.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Generally guys do not trust any "SEMI-OFFICIAL" information about turnout or results, they are most often bullsh**t.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Generally guys do not trust any "SEMI-OFFICIAL" information about turnout or results, they are most often bullsh**t.

The pro-PO anons seem to be converging on DUDA IS ON 50.4 GO VOTE NOW. Maybe Schetyna's Israeli PR guys taught them about gevalt?

[Walmart_shopper]

Walmart shopper, make sure you're not getting your info from the Kondominium Twitter account. That guy is infamous for s--tting up Polish Twitter with misinformation.

Haha okay. Yeah, he seems much more optimistic right now (he is anti-Duda) than others on Twitter. I take his word for it that trendlines are good for Rafał but the PiS people seem fairly confident, too. In any case it is clear that the cities picked up a lot after noon. A key PO bastion, Szczecin, is also up over 3% officially from Round 1.

I just think it will he very tight and anyone who feels confident one way or another is probably just wishcasting.

[Walmart_shopper]

Generally guys do not trust any "SEMI-OFFICIAL" information about turnout or results, they are most often bullsh**t.

I am just getting them from news accounts.

[Tender Branson]

Walmart shopper, make sure you're not getting your info from the Kondominium Twitter account. That guy is infamous for s--tting up Polish Twitter with misinformation.

Haha okay. Yeah, he seems much more optimistic right now (he is anti-Duda) than others on Twitter. I take his word for it that trendlines are good for Rafał but the PiS people seem fairly confident, too. In any case it is clear that the cities picked up a lot after noon. A key PO bastion, Szczecin, is also up over 3% officially from Round 1.

I just think it will he very tight and anyone who feels confident one way or another is probably just wishcasting.

I do not want Duda to win re-election, I just think he will.

And probably not by a small margin.

He has a good base from round 1 and the 4th placed guy is a right-winger too and combined, these 2 already got 50%+ in round 1 ...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Exit poll will show nothing. We will probably have to wait for all votes, even those from diaspora.

I remember the 1995 election. I knew nothing, except I really liked Wałęsa, mostly because of his mustache. I don't think I even remembered Kwaśniewski's name, he was just the other guy without cool staches. It only became certain the next morning Kwaśniewski won and I was pretty upset.

During all presidential elections since (when I learned there's more to candidates than having or not having a mustache) it was always more or less clear who won on the election night. Even the last time, with the real results being pretty close, the exit polls showed Duda with the margin that we knew were highly improbable for Komorowski (a case study on how to f**k up an election everybody used to think you had in a bad) to overcome.

If I had to make a call at gunpoint now, I'd join all others in this thread leaning toward a narrow Duda's victory, but I'm more and more convinced we won't have a clear projection tonight.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout picked up a lot in PO-leaning Białstok, where turnout is just under 3% higher than round 1 as of 5pm. It will obviously be critical to see whether the rural areas are still seeing a turnout bump or whether this is the typical pattern of urban voters getting out of bed a lot later than rural voters (who are more likely to be going to Mass in the morning).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Walmart shopper, make sure you're not getting your info from the Kondominium Twitter account. That guy is infamous for s--tting up Polish Twitter with misinformation.

Haha okay. Yeah, he seems much more optimistic right now (he is anti-Duda) than others on Twitter. I take his word for it that trendlines are good for Rafał but the PiS people seem fairly confident, too. In any case it is clear that the cities picked up a lot after noon. A key PO bastion, Szczecin, is also up over 3% officially from Round 1.

I just think it will he very tight and anyone who feels confident one way or another is probably just wishcasting.

I do not want Duda to win re-election, I just think he will.

And probably not by a small margin.

He has a good base from round 1 and the 4th placed guy is a right-winger too and combined, these 2 already got 50%+ in round 1 ...

This is a valid point, although it's not so safe to assume Bosak's voters will go over to Duda as whole, simply because he's more right-wing than Trzaskowski. Konfederacja is not friendly with PiS, because they're the competition on the right side. Some Bosak voters may buy into "but PiS is so socialist" narrative for morons, some may be thinking in terms of longtime strategy of weakening PiS, leading to absentions or more votes for Trzaskowski than anticipated.  

I mean, Duda will get bigger share of Bosak's voters, but we really won't have a full picture for some time.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I very, very strongly believe in the hellworld outcome of one of them winning by 50.1/49.9.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, which time you guys voted? I voted around 1 PM.

[Gass3268]

What time to polls close?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What time to polls close?

9 PM. A little less than three hours from now.

[Gass3268]

What time to polls close?

9 PM. A little less than three hours from now.

Thanks!

[Walmart_shopper]

Local 5pm reports are available, so I have no clue why the national number is still not out. In any case Warsaw turnout is up 3% from round 1 and Poznan is up 2%. One of the questions going into today was whether Rafał could push turnout even higher among his urban liberal base than round 1. The answer seems to be a pretty clear yes. But without seeing a full spectrum of turnout numbers from 5pm it is hard to say whether Duda is in serious trouble or not.

[Tender Branson]

Higher than normal turnout almost definitely benefits PiS and not PO.

Turnout increased by more than 10% in the parliamentary elections in 2019 and PiS gained 7%.

[Walmart_shopper]

The aforementioned Marcin Palade seems to think that Duda is leading early exits by a more comfortable margin. It wouldn't surprise me if it ends up this way, but it's hard to deny that turnout patterns and trends have been more and more encouraging to Rafał as the day has gone on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282345374720688130

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, which time you guys voted? I voted around 1 PM.

12, after church. I had to walk really quickly to outmanoeuvre hordes of elderly ladies, to be able to vote before them. But there were no queues, fortunately.