Polish Politics and Elections

[Lord Halifax]

Very high probability of the margin being so close that the Supreme Court gets involved and we get some Bush v. Gore-tier clusterf---.

Okay, is the Supreme Court PiS friendly?

Since you think it's going to be a toss-up: Do you disagree with Kataak's description of Duda's turnout advantage?

[Oryxslayer]

I have been quietly following this contest, and yeah it's a tossup, tilting Duda if you put a gun to my head. However, there is an argument that the polls will be off by enough in one way or another to push the contest away from 50/50. This argument comes down the polls marginally missing the turnout, be this by coronavirus, and the number of absentions since round 1 being higher/lower than expected.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Very high probability of the margin being so close that the Supreme Court gets involved and we get some Bush v. Gore-tier clusterf---.

Okay, is the Supreme Court PiS friendly?

The judges of the particular chamber of the Supreme Court which is responsible for election matters were selected by the PiS-controlled National Council of the Judiciary. They didn't act in an overtly partisan manner when PiS demanded recounts in several Senate seats after the parliamentary election, but those protests were rather desperate and less was at stake.

Since you think it's going to be a toss-up: Do you disagree with Kataak's description of Duda's turnout advantage?

No, I think Duda is favoured for the reasons Kataak listed. The areas that favour Trzaskowski should generally be closer to 'maxing out' than those that favour Duda (although we haven't had turnout this high since 1995, so god knows where the ceiling is). However, I think it's unlikely that the winner will get more than 52% of the vote, and they may get much less than that - for example, Marcin Palade (very right-wing pollster/psephologist whose interest in psephology usually trumps his partisan commitments)'s polling average is currently showing Duda could win with 50.1% of the vote. Duda will probably win a scrappy, messy victory, and Trzaskowski can only win an even scrappier, messier one.

[rob in cal]

Prediction time.  I think Trzaskowski by a whisker.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

51.4% DUDA (incumbent)
48.6% Transkinkcswsky (or whatever his name is)

[Walmart_shopper]

Rafał 50.7
Duda 49.3

Turnout: an incredible 70%, high in the PiS heartlands in the southeast and in key liberal vote hives like Warsaw, Gdansk, etc.. Rural voters in the west break towards Rafał for the win.

[Tender Branson]

Rafał 50.7
Duda 49.3

Turnout: an incredible 70%, high in the PiS heartlands in the southeast and in key liberal vote hives like Warsaw, Gdansk, etc.. Rural voters in the west break towards Rafał for the win.

Turnout should indeed be good because of the close race.

70% is not unrealistic ...

I still expect Duda to win, because he seems to have a broader base and rural voters probably back him because of the PiS cash infusions they got over the past years and want the other guy to remain Warsaw mayor.

On the other hand, I know not much about Polish politics.

[Walmart_shopper]

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

[Tender Branson]

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Where did you read that ?

There are no official numbers until 12:00 (noon).

[President Johnson]

My prediction:

51.4% DUDA (incumbent)
48.6% Transkinkcswsky (or whatever his name is)

This would be my prediction as well. I don't think Duda will ultimately get defeated.

[Walmart_shopper]

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Anecdotal reports have turnout down, but early taste tests show that the pastries are extra full of jam. So we'll see how this goes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Purely anecdotal turnout reports are genuinely amongst the most useless and unreliable things going.

But yes, I too think that Duda will sneak it.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Rule of thumb, people: anything 'leaked' before 4/5pm in Poland is either nonsense or just not useful.

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Bear in mind that an unusually high number of people seem to have voted in the morning last time. The 'typical' pattern is that morning turnout is tilted towards conservatives and is balanced out by an evening rush of liberals. We don't know if that pattern has genuinely changed or if people were just afraid of long queues that ultimately didn't materialise.

It would be very unusual for turnout to fall in the second round, the only time that happened was in 1990 under extremely particular circumstances.

[Walmart_shopper]

Rule of thumb, people: anything 'leaked' before 4/5pm in Poland is either nonsense or just not useful.

We will get official turnout reports throughout the day, but it sounds like turnout is down quite a bit from round one. I would assume that, if it holds, it would be at least marginally good news for Duda. Although I'm not sure even that much is clear.

Bear in mind that an unusually high number of people seem to have voted in the morning last time. The 'typical' pattern is that morning turnout is tilted towards conservatives and is balanced out by an evening rush of liberals. We don't know if that pattern has genuinely changed or if people were just afraid of long queues that ultimately didn't materialise.

It would be very unusual for turnout to fall in the second round, the only time that happened was in 1990 under extremely particular circumstances.

Yes, of course. But what would an election Sunday be without a little bazarek?

In any case, actual, official turnout reports are now leaking out and they are almost all unmistakably good for Rafał. Turnout in the eastern part of the country is down from Round 1, while turnout in key liberal areas seems to be up. No official report on overall turnout for another 30 minutes or so but it seems that overall turnout will actually he up from Round 1 at 1300.

[Walmart_shopper]

Szczecin and Gdansk are only about .5% or less off from their Round 1 numbers at this time. So certainly not overwhelming but not at all the kind of significant turnout drop that liberals were talking about earlier this morning (in those cities at least).

[Walmart_shopper]

Białystok (my old home, by the way), is down about .2% from Round 1. The city is marginally a PO city, but nothing like Lodz or Warsaw. So I am not sure what to make of that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

late-minute prediction:
50.3% Rafal
49.7% Duda

[Walmart_shopper]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1282281710303027201

So that is probably somewhat good news for Rafał. But it isn't clear which demographics exactly are turning out, so who knows.

[Lord Halifax]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1282281710303027201

So that is probably somewhat good news for Rafał. But it isn't clear which demographics exactly are turning out, so who knows.

If Conservatives usually vote early and Liberals late increased early turnout should be good for Duda.

[Walmart_shopper]

Based on the distribution of the vote so far it does seem as though rural voters are likely fueling the turnout bump. But a lot of city people are in boutique resort towns on holiday and younger urban voters may indeed show up late as they usually do.

[Tender Branson]

I’m updating my prediction to a 52.9% Duda win.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice map as far as turnout is concerned, though making predictions off of turnout is a fools game.


Anyway, I'm just going to make the hellish prediction, someone has to do it after all:

50.1 Duda
49.9 Trzaskowski

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Based on the distribution of the vote so far it does seem as though rural voters are likely fueling the turnout bump. But a lot of city people are in boutique resort towns on holiday and younger urban voters may indeed show up late as they usually do.

Correct - rural turnout is still below the national average but less so than it was at this time in the first round, while urban turnout is the inverse.

https://twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1282297030229008385?s=19

[jaichind]

I think Duda mostly wins around the same margin as 2015, perhaps a bit less.  Something like 51-49

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Based on the distribution of the vote so far it does seem as though rural voters are likely fueling the turnout bump. But a lot of city people are in boutique resort towns on holiday and younger urban voters may indeed show up late as they usually do.

Reports were of long lines of tourists voting in the resort towns on the coast.

Originally the election was supposed to take place in May, but we all know the virus made it impossible. Before 2010 presidential elections were always held in the autumn, but the Smoleńsk crash changed the calendar.