Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, Holownia has announced that he's starting a 'movement' (lol) called 'Poland 2050'.

[Astatine]

Anyway, Holownia has announced that he's starting a 'movement' (lol) called 'Poland 2050'.

Why do failed Polish presidential candidates with decent performances tend to found their own parties?
Do you think Poland 2050 will make it into Parliament (it's still 3 years until the next election)? Kukiz'15 performed very well in polls, but the presidential election was in the same year and the 8 % performance was at least not overwhelming considering most polls in advance and support for Kukiz plummeted in the end. Additionally, Kukiz performed well better than Holownia in the pres. election.

[jaichind]

https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-prezydenckie-najnowszy-sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu-andrzej-duda-wygrywa/ch34q01

IBRiS poll has Duda ahead 49.0 to 46.4

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, Holownia has announced that he's starting a 'movement' (lol) called 'Poland 2050'.

Why do failed Polish presidential candidates with decent performances tend to found their own parties?
Do you think Poland 2050 will make it into Parliament (it's still 3 years until the next election)? Kukiz'15 performed very well in polls, but the presidential election was in the same year and the 8 % performance was at least not overwhelming considering most polls in advance and support for Kukiz plummeted in the end. Additionally, Kukiz performed well better than Holownia in the pres. election.

- If you run for President, you probably have some sort of political ambition. Losing but putting in a respectable performance gives you political capital and temporarily locks in some degree of personal support. It's very straightforward.
- God knows, I don't want to think about it. If Trzaskowski wins, it is of course not impossible that the cohabitation breaks down and leads to a snap election. That is presumably part of his calculus.

Speaking of Holownia, he gave an interview yesterday complaining that in the process of running for president, he used up all his savings and burned all his bridges in his professional life and now has no idea what to do with himself, and I feel like I'm going insane. Are we really expected to believe that we came very close to sending to the second round someone with no political experience and no idea what he would do with his life after he lost or left office, who, if he won, would have been totally beholden to the extremely establishment advisors (former Tusk-era ministers, retired generals, well-known academics, etc.) he kept pulling out of his hat during the campaign... and this would have been better than electing a regular politician?

[Walmart_shopper]

Polls released after the first round result are evenly split. About half show Duda winning narrowly and have show Trzcsfdsvwhatever winning narrowly. I actually think Duda may lose.

[CumbrianLefty]

Polls released after the first round result are evenly split. About half show Duda winning narrowly and have show Trzcsfdsvwhatever winning narrowly. I actually think Duda may lose.

Which side's voters are rated more likely to turn out?

[PSOL]

Well Duda is trying to rally his base

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well Duda is trying to rally his base

Well, yes. This election is going to come down to whether the Korwinistas hate muh socialism or muh LGBT more.

What is more interesting is that this is still less radical than his first-round rhetoric - they've partially retreated to the least controversial anti-LGBT proposition.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

As a side note, I wonder if those Korwinista votes are even still there to be won by Trzaskowski. The 2019 Konfederacja vote was quite evenly spread throughout the country, which is, broadly speaking, he standard vote distribution for one of Korwin's parties. The exit poll (which I'm not sure I trust) claimed Bosak only got 64% of those voters and his vote, despite being almost identical in percentage terms (6.8 to 6.78), was much more concentrated along the Eastern border, which would indicate he brought some of the LPR genepool vote back.

[Walmart_shopper]

The polls today look good for Trzaskowski, but his lead is still only about 2%, so it goes without saying that the race is basically on the edge right now. Nevertheless even a very subtle shift like this away from Duda can point towards something more meaningful going on in the electorate. We'll see what polling shows over the next couple of days.

[parochial boy]

Apologies if this has been asked and answered already, but is there any reason why USA Poles seem to be so much more fash than the rest of the diaspora? I can imagine reasons, but wouldn't want to make assumptions

[CumbrianLefty]

I was expecting Duda to win this almost routinely after the first round, so that is maybe interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

Apologies if this has been asked and answered already, but is there any reason why USA Poles seem to be so much more fash than the rest of the diaspora? I can imagine reasons, but wouldn't want to make assumptions

You see something similar in a lot of South American mail votes - no idea if it holds true here.

The people who end up in the US but retain citizenship are often high skill, high paid residents of the upper-crust who get in via their ability to compliment the US economy. A few other countries are like this, but its usually the US. Neighboring countries (especially in the EU) naturally have an easier time trading workers back and forth similar to osmosis This produces a different sort of resident, often one more working or lower class who got pulled in by opportunity or job listing. Depending on the situation, these types of workers may not even be permanent, they may be saving up money and sending remissions back home for when they can return. Then there is a third category - the distant outpost. The number of voters there will be minuscule, but they will be mainly comprised of embassies, attaches, and college students

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Apologies if this has been asked and answered already, but is there any reason why USA Poles seem to be so much more fash than the rest of the diaspora? I can imagine reasons, but wouldn't want to make assumptions

Well, in terms of institutions, organisations, media etc. Polish diaspora in the USA is rather conservative, especially when we take into consideration those who are determined enough to vote and are engaged in cultural life of the diaspora. Generally a lot of Poles in the USA who are eligible to vote were mainly people who emigrated from Poland before 1989 - they often do not live there and they create their views on Poland from media outlets, chruch, etc. This is obviously changing and holds only when we are talking about Chicago diaspora, the biggest one. But for example Poles in Cali and DC voted mainly for Trzaskowski.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

As a side note, I wonder if those Korwinista votes are even still there to be won by Trzaskowski. The 2019 Konfederacja vote was quite evenly spread throughout the country, which is, broadly speaking, he standard vote distribution for one of Korwin's parties. The exit poll (which I'm not sure I trust) claimed Bosak only got 64% of those voters and his vote, despite being almost identical in percentage terms (6.8 to 6.78), was much more concentrated along the Eastern border, which would indicate he brought some of the LPR genepool vote back.

The geographical dynamic seems to be that nationalist Confederates do better in Podkarpackie (and to a lesser extent the rest of the East) while libertarian Confederates do better in small to mid sized cities.

Its worth noting that Bosak consistently underpolled Confederate parliamentary support for one reason or another but reduced some of the gap by running a solid campaign. At the beginning he was polling around 3% while KON was polling between 4% to 8%, then by the end he got up to 6.8% when KON's poll numbers increased to between 7% and 11%. There were probably a sizable number of 2018 supporters who didn't show up or voted for Żółtek.

[swl]

I can't imagine the mess if the result is so close that it's decided by votes from abroad & correspondence votes...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There's been some interesting stuff going on with the paper ballots missing the official red seal.

[adma]

Apologies if this has been asked and answered already, but is there any reason why USA Poles seem to be so much more fash than the rest of the diaspora? I can imagine reasons, but wouldn't want to make assumptions

Well, in terms of institutions, organisations, media etc. Polish diaspora in the USA is rather conservative, especially when we take into consideration those who are determined enough to vote and are engaged in cultural life of the diaspora. Generally a lot of Poles in the USA who are eligible to vote were mainly people who emigrated from Poland before 1989 - they often do not live there and they create their views on Poland from media outlets, chruch, etc. This is obviously changing and holds only when we are talking about Chicago diaspora, the biggest one. But for example Poles in Cali and DC voted mainly for Trzaskowski.

And I'm sure the nature of religious politics in the USA plays a part--a lot of them being hardcore Janpavelistas who aren't exactly on-side with Francis-era "liberalization".

It's sort of the inverse of how, in recent times, Trump and the GOP in general has been far more popular in Poland than elsewhere in Europe.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

As a side note, I wonder if those Korwinista votes are even still there to be won by Trzaskowski. The 2019 Konfederacja vote was quite evenly spread throughout the country, which is, broadly speaking, he standard vote distribution for one of Korwin's parties. The exit poll (which I'm not sure I trust) claimed Bosak only got 64% of those voters and his vote, despite being almost identical in percentage terms (6.8 to 6.78), was much more concentrated along the Eastern border, which would indicate he brought some of the LPR genepool vote back.

The geographical dynamic seems to be that nationalist Confederates do better in Podkarpackie (and to a lesser extent the rest of the East) while libertarian Confederates do better in small to mid sized cities.

Its worth noting that Bosak consistently underpolled Confederate parliamentary support for one reason or another but reduced some of the gap by running a solid campaign. At the beginning he was polling around 3% while KON was polling between 4% to 8%, then by the end he got up to 6.8% when KON's poll numbers increased to between 7% and 11%. There were probably a sizable number of 2018 supporters who didn't show up or voted for Żółtek.

Yes, that was very noticeable. Bosak is not a natural libertarian and the bizarre backroom games around his selection as the candidate probably put some off. Which raises one question - if they didn't turn up for Bosak, are they really going to come out to vote for a PO candidate?

[rob in cal]

  So whats the story of the Pis government's immigration policy? I read some Bosak supporters twitter where he claimed that immigration has increased massively under Pis, and found some article that mentioned lots of Ukrainians coming in as well as lots of South Asians. I would think having lots of non-Europeans immigrating to Poland, as in the case of the South Asians, if thats true, would certainly show that the Pis government isn't that strongly against non-European immigration to Poland.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Apparently Duda and Trzaskowski are deeply committed to this social distancing stuff,

Jk, They're each in their own Presidential "Debate" in two different TV channels. Because that the true spirit of debating, y'know

[Lord Halifax]

How likely is it that Trzaskowski can pull off a win?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How likely is it that Trzaskowski can pull off a win?

Somehow likely, but generally Duda have better position due to few issues:

1) More determined electorate, who is rather voting for Duda because he is Duda, he is representing certain platform and values which his voters support. Trzaskowski voters are mainly people who just do not like PiS more, supporters of various parties and political organisations from left to centre-right, or even right. They have weaker motivation to vote on Trzaskowski than Duda voters on Duda.

2) Even core PO voter base is less determined than PiS voters. PO electorate lives mainly in cities, they have various stuff to do without going out of home etc. Rural and elderly electorate of PiS which is serious part of it generally tend to move somewhere on Sundays (and I am not even talking about church, but for example family living in county nearby).

3) Any chances of Trzaskowski winning are based on young people and those who were not voting two weeks ago. So one group which is awful electorate (until this elections young people were very under-represented in whole group of people who voted) and second very unstable and unpredictable. 

4) Another group on which PO really want to get victory are people living abroad - due to some technical problems, coronavirus issues there might be some problems. And difference in the amount of votes between Duda and Trzaskowski probably will be not that big so every vote matters.

[Walmart_shopper]

How likely is it that Trzaskowski can pull off a win?

If polls are to be believed it is 50/50. Because Duda overperformed his polling in round one he may have a slight advantage, but in all honesty it is basically a coinflip.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Very high probability of the margin being so close that the Supreme Court gets involved and we get some Bush v. Gore-tier clusterf---.