Polish Politics and Elections

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Here's a little thing that's been bothering me. Let's say the election is postponed without Duda's term being extended (which, I think, would require a constitutional act of some sort). I assume his terms ends in August and we'll have Sejm Marshal acting as President until the election is held on a later date?

I doubt a presidential term can be extended by a simple legislation, but I may be wrong.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Here's a little thing that's been bothering me. Let's say the election is postponed without Duda's term being extended (which, I think, would require a constitutional act of some sort). I assume his terms ends in August and we'll have Sejm Marshal acting as President until the election is held on a later date?

I doubt a presidential term can be extended by a simple legislation, but I may be wrong.

At this point I doubt that anyone knows anything anymore.

[CumbrianLefty]

Dare one hope that perhaps Poland is going to escape the worst of Orbanisation after all?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Dare one hope that perhaps Poland is going to escape the worst of Orbanisation after all?

Some people obviously have some hopes regarding events from few past days.

I will just recap there:

- PiS decided that they will not postpone the election even though the epidemics will not disappear until May

- as for now PiS want to push through bill introducing fully mail vote in the May presidential election.

- the bill is currently in the Senate where opposition is freezing the any legislation proceeding as much as they can (30 days)

- even bill is still in the Senate, govt already ordered printing of the "voting packages" with ballots. One of the coronavirus crisis relief acts included weirdly placed paragraphs about taking responsibility of organising elections from Electoral Commission to the govt so now one minister is organising everything, on weak legal basis (earlier he said that he ordered printing because "the act will be passed either way")

- after Gowin leaving the cabinet and worsening of the relations between him and Kaczyński there are gossips (confirmed by serious sources) that Gowin made deal with opposition that they will oust current Marshal of the Sejm, Elżbieta Witek (PiS) and Gowin will become new Marshal. The deal also include, what is more important, rejecting the bill about "mail elections" in May. As for now what is publicly confirmed by opposition is that they talked with Gowin and they agreed that "the elections can't be organised in May and they must be organised by Electoral Comission"

- if this is true this will require more than just Gowin - some of his party members would be required to vote against too. And not all of them are keen on leaving PiS umbrella. Kaczyński is also trying to weaken Gowin camp as much as possible, there are gossips about PiS creating special lists of people from Porozumienie (Gowin party) who will be immediately kicked out from state-owned companies or some offices/departments/posts etc.

- I can't imagine continuation of this government without majority (and finding one will be hard) in the parliament, and surely after such betrayal PiS will raze Gowin to the ground ruthlessly

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Senate voted against mail vote only elections. Sejm probably will do the same.

Elżbieta Witek currently is waiting for answer from Constitutional Tribunal if they can move elections to the end of May (legally TK have to spend at least 15 days on it). Earlier she asked Electoral Commission if this is possible to organise elections on 10th May and they said " no" (more or less).

First Porozumienie MP, Włodzimierz Tomaszewski (former vice-president of Łódź) swore fealty to the Kaczyński. But generally there is solid team of 8-10 MPs loyal to Gowin and still unknown number of local politicians.

This is going to be beautiful catastrophe and it will be televised.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

Well, this just happened.

[xelas81]

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

Well, this just happened.

Didn't the election still got delayed?
So Gowin got his wish: delayed election (and possibly more leverage within the government)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

Well, this just happened.

Didn't the election still got delayed?
So Gowin got his wish: delayed election (and possibly more leverage within the government)

Elections are technically are still going to be legally scheduled but they will not take place just for the Supreme Court to rule that there was no valid elecions (as Supreme Court generally rule validity of the elections) and schedule new elections (July/August probably) but probably with the same candidates, due to planned changes in electoral law. Everything  from legal point of view very farfetched. Elections will be organised by Electoral Commission. And relations between Gowin and Kaczyński are probably still awful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Still, that this has happened is nonetheless mildly encouraging.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PO are reportedly considering withdrawing Kidawa-Blonska as their candidate for President and replacing her with Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski. Incredible stuff.

_{now replace Biedron too}

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Officially called for 28 June.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

I honestly wonder whether to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (Biedroń being a huge dud) to give him stronger position. There's just no one in the Polish political scene I held in bigger contempt than The Pen (Duda's been called that because he's signing everything his party tells him to sign).

Back in 2015 I casted a spoiled ballot in the first round (actually wrote in Grodzka on the paper, but we don't allow write-ins to be counted), since there was no candidate I could even remotely identify with. With hindsight I would've voted Komorowski at the start.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

I honestly wonder whether to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (Biedroń being a huge dud) to give him stronger position. There's just no one in the Polish political scene I held in bigger contempt than The Pen (Duda's been called that because he's signing everything his party tells him to sign).

Back in 2015 I casted a spoiled ballot in the first round (actually wrote in Grodzka on the paper, but we don't allow write-ins to be counted), since there was no candidate I could even remotely identify with. With hindsight I would've voted Komorowski at the start.

Running Biedroń was a huge mistake. I'm just hoping his poor result doesn't drag the rest of the Left down Ogórek/Krzaklewski style. I know Zandberg and ADB didn't want to run, but either of them would have done much better. Hell, Cimoszewicz or Belka would have done much better if they'd dredged them up. There's a strong chance I'll vote for Trzaskowski or WKK, or maybe write 'The Ghost of Karol Modzelewski' on the ballot paper.

[Estrella]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

I honestly wonder whether to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (Biedroń being a huge dud) to give him stronger position. There's just no one in the Polish political scene I held in bigger contempt than The Pen (Duda's been called that because he's signing everything his party tells him to sign).

Back in 2015 I casted a spoiled ballot in the first round (actually wrote in Grodzka on the paper, but we don't allow write-ins to be counted), since there was no candidate I could even remotely identify with. With hindsight I would've voted Komorowski at the start.

Running Biedroń was a huge mistake. I'm just hoping his poor result doesn't drag the rest of the Left down Ogórek/Krzaklewski style. I know Zandberg and ADB didn't want to run, but either of them would have done much better. Hell, Cimoszewicz or Belka would have done much better if they'd dredged them up. There's a strong chance I'll vote for Trzaskowski or WKK, or maybe write 'The Ghost of Karol Modzelewski' on the ballot paper.

What happened to Biedroń? I thought that he was quite popular.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

I honestly wonder whether to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (Biedroń being a huge dud) to give him stronger position. There's just no one in the Polish political scene I held in bigger contempt than The Pen (Duda's been called that because he's signing everything his party tells him to sign).

Back in 2015 I casted a spoiled ballot in the first round (actually wrote in Grodzka on the paper, but we don't allow write-ins to be counted), since there was no candidate I could even remotely identify with. With hindsight I would've voted Komorowski at the start.

Running Biedroń was a huge mistake. I'm just hoping his poor result doesn't drag the rest of the Left down Ogórek/Krzaklewski style. I know Zandberg and ADB didn't want to run, but either of them would have done much better. Hell, Cimoszewicz or Belka would have done much better if they'd dredged them up. There's a strong chance I'll vote for Trzaskowski or WKK, or maybe write 'The Ghost of Karol Modzelewski' on the ballot paper.

What happened to Biedroń? I thought that he was quite popular.

Oh, where do I begin?

1) Upon launching Wiosna he instantly dropped the saccharine charm that people liked about him and instead started coming off as a defensive prick in his public appearances
2) He claimed to be building a grassroots movement, which, yes, was always going to be bullsh!t, but he then proceeded to create a party which it was literally not possible to join
3) Their campaign in the Euro elections leaned heavily on stupid gimmicks (SINGLE EUROPEAN PASSPORT! lmao who cares) in lieu of actual policies and talking about real issues
4) He spent a lot of time hyping up how he was recruiting star candidates only to come up with lists that included none of them, but did include his and his chief of staff's partners in top positions, grim ex-SLD apparatchik Gawkowski, shady businesspeople, and at least one actual criminal
5) He was extremely cagey about his party's funding
6) He and his inner circle blatantly tried to hush up a bullying scandal within the party
7) He leaned way too heavily on the dregs of Ruch Palikota
8 ) Finally, he broke his pledge to not take his seat in the European Parliament upon finding out his partner wasn't going to make it in and someone he didn't like had gotten the second-most votes after him

I'm sure I've missed something, but basically, that campaign bore no relation whatsoever to the way he'd been pitching himself. Even all that wouldn't have been fatal but for the fact that he clearly didn't want to run, only did because absolutely no one else wanted to, and now, in so far as he is visible at all, is delivering lines obviously written by someone else with minimal conviction.

He's also been cursed with some of the worst campaign chairs the Left could have come up with - first Hanna Gill-Piatek, queen of the Lodz hipsters and early 2010s blogosphere beef aficionado, under whose enlightened leadership the campaign scheduled rallies for noon on a Wednesday, and then that lazy prick Tomasz Trela - but that's not really his fault.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

I honestly wonder whether to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (Biedroń being a huge dud) to give him stronger position. There's just no one in the Polish political scene I held in bigger contempt than The Pen (Duda's been called that because he's signing everything his party tells him to sign).

Back in 2015 I casted a spoiled ballot in the first round (actually wrote in Grodzka on the paper, but we don't allow write-ins to be counted), since there was no candidate I could even remotely identify with. With hindsight I would've voted Komorowski at the start.

Running Biedroń was a huge mistake. I'm just hoping his poor result doesn't drag the rest of the Left down Ogórek/Krzaklewski style. I know Zandberg and ADB didn't want to run, but either of them would have done much better. Hell, Cimoszewicz or Belka would have done much better if they'd dredged them up. There's a strong chance I'll vote for Trzaskowski or WKK, or maybe write 'The Ghost of Karol Modzelewski' on the ballot paper.

What happened to Biedroń? I thought that he was quite popular.

He in terms of electorate shares huge part of it with Trzaskowski. Certain appeal, aesthetics, values etc. close to the "big city liberals" are represented by both of those candidates, but obviously Trzaskowski is stronger so most of the Biedroń electorate will flock to Trzaskowski.
Not to mention bland electoral campaign, visible lack of interest from Biedroń side.
Even people from the conscious, self-described left are not really willing to vote on him. In my political bubble a lot of people are really not convinced to vote on Biedroń.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I can't help but to be reminded of Biedroń being interviewed on the EP election night, acting like an overexcited 11-year old after coming third in a spelling bee. That was the moment I thought to myself "he's not going to make it." And by "make it" I didn't mean actually winning the election, since I've been always certain a left's candidate can't win this election, but making a respectable performance.

[Estrella]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1268084311259000832

Found this interesting poll. Probably nothing unexpected, but I still think it's weird that Trzaskowski is doing so well.

[bigic]

Turnout at noon relatively high
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1277204436897628160

[rob in cal]

Any ideas of what % Duda's camp is hoping to get to put them in a good position for the runoff?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is on track for 61-63%, which would be similar to the parliamentary election last year.

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Duda           41.8
Trzaskowski  30.4
 

Mostly match pre-election polls

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]