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Author Topic: Polish Politics and Elections  (Read 104473 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #325 on: October 14, 2019, 08:46:07 AM »

PiS projected to lose majority in the Senate.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #326 on: October 14, 2019, 08:49:52 AM »


Not really projected, it is pretty sure.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #327 on: October 14, 2019, 08:50:06 AM »

I saw that university students dosproportionately voted for the left and, alas, the far right. Does anyone have data on how all young people and not just university students voted?

All exit poll datas:
https://www.tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2019/sondaz,475

You have to scroll down to "DEMOGRAFIA" click on "ZMIEN" and "WIEK
18 - 29 lat"

Thanks. It would appear that the narrative of younger Poles lurching right is really overdone (as such narratives usually are). The only thing that stands out is that PiS loses a lot of support to the far right in that demographic. But given the number of economically (and maybe emotionally) depressed young dudes with shaved heads taking part in white nationalist marches, this is perhaps to be expected. We know young Poles are much less religious. It seems they are even a little more liberal, too.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #328 on: October 14, 2019, 09:47:24 AM »

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #329 on: October 14, 2019, 10:27:53 AM »

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.


For who? Where?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #330 on: October 14, 2019, 10:39:25 AM »


I think I read somewhere that this was the case for the Confederacy. Wrong ?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #331 on: October 14, 2019, 10:44:07 AM »


I think I read somewhere that this was the case for the Confederacy. Wrong ?


They are nuts but not neo-nazi.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #332 on: October 14, 2019, 10:48:10 AM »

So much for the very smart people in this thread telling us not to believe the fake news exit polls!
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #333 on: October 14, 2019, 10:53:01 AM »

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #334 on: October 14, 2019, 10:53:38 AM »

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

Pretty shocking that 20-30% of young Austrians are voting for the Neo-Nazis
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #335 on: October 14, 2019, 10:56:59 AM »

So much for the very smart people in this thread telling us not to believe the fake news exit polls!
There were reasons to warn people not to get too excited considering the pollster's recent track record, but I guess thanks for the unsolicited insult, random American?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #336 on: October 14, 2019, 10:58:02 AM »

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

Pretty shocking that 20-30% of young Austrians are voting for the Neo-Nazis

12% of young women and 23% of young men voted FPÖ two weeks ago.

In Vorarlberg yesterday, it was 8% of young women voting FPÖ and 27% of young men.

I would say that's a difference compared to Poland, considering we have taken in 150.000 asylum seekers the last few years ... and Poland almost none.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #337 on: October 14, 2019, 11:04:45 AM »

Oh, it seems German Minority (MN) will retain its one MP.

For those unfamiliar, national minority committees are exempted from a 5% nationwide threshold, and only need to exceed 5% in their districts. The MN is running in Opole only.

Pretty comfortably in the end, with the same percentage as last time.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #338 on: October 14, 2019, 11:12:29 AM »

I have some work to do first, but I'll make some provisional constituency maps this evening.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #339 on: October 14, 2019, 11:40:07 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2019, 12:17:14 PM by Mangez des pommes ! »

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

Do you have a full breakdown of seats somewhere?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #340 on: October 14, 2019, 11:44:59 AM »

As far as the legislative process is concerned, the Senate is usually pretty inconsequential. It can propose amendments, which Sejm is free to ignore and send its version to the President for a signature or veto. Individual Senators can't propose bills, but "the Senate as a whole" can. Since 1993 until now government always enjoyed a considerable majority in the "upper" house (for example, in 2001 SLD/UP won 75 out of 100 seats), making it a rubber stamp body, which was being especially evident during the 2015-2019 term.

But now opposition-controlled Senate may actually do its intended duty as a scrutinizing chamber. Such an arrangement could make it much more difficult for PiS to simply steamroll legislations in the middle of the night (oh yes, they love nightime sessions).
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #341 on: October 14, 2019, 11:51:05 AM »

Oh, it seems German Minority (MN) will retain its one MP.

For those unfamiliar, national minority committees are exempted from a 5% nationwide threshold, and only need to exceed 5% in their districts. The MN is running in Opole only.

Pretty comfortably in the end, with the same percentage as last time.
It's also the first time their vote didn't decrease in numerical terms from the last election.

Some absolutely fascinating patterns on display here wrt SLD and PSL in particular - PSL look set to win seats in Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, Gdynia, Opole and both Western Pomerania constituencies where they're traditionally irrelevant, while SLD now perform better in cities than in some more provincial areas where they usually did much better.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #342 on: October 14, 2019, 12:24:57 PM »

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

Do you have a full breakdown of seats somewhere?

Hell, I could calculate it myself pretty easily if the results page had the number of seats apportioned to each constituency, but it doesn't seem to have even that. There's gotta be a place to find it though?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #343 on: October 14, 2019, 12:30:54 PM »

Who got in besides Nowacka and Dariusz the pool attendant?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #344 on: October 14, 2019, 12:36:27 PM »

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

Pretty shocking that 20-30% of young Austrians are voting for the Neo-Nazis

12% of young women and 23% of young men voted FPÖ two weeks ago.

In Vorarlberg yesterday, it was 8% of young women voting FPÖ and 27% of young men.

I would say that's a difference compared to Poland, considering we have taken in 150.000 asylum seekers the last few years ... and Poland almost none.

The PiS is not a secular white nationalist party oriented around immigration policy. It is a social-minded Catholic revanchist party that has only begun recently to grow xenophobic and authoritarian. Konfedracja is closer to FPO than PiS amd they got 19 percent among young voters.

But the truth is both countries have a problem with right wing extremism. The difference is that Austrian youth are secular, multicultural, progressive, and economically prosperous. The Polish youth who are like that are in Berlin, Vienna, London, Dublin, Stockholm, etc. So the Polish youth in Poland are split between religiously devout Catholics, typical European leftists, and a huge group of often the stereotypical "economically distressed" sort who never managed to leave the country and want to blame Jews and mythical Islamic hoards for that sad fact. It is that last group who you see supporting neo nazis and parading in nationalist marches.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #345 on: October 14, 2019, 12:41:50 PM »

Pretty shocking that 30-40% of young people are voting for the Neo-Nazis.

Pretty shocking that 20-30% of young Austrians are voting for the Neo-Nazis

12% of young women and 23% of young men voted FPÖ two weeks ago.

In Vorarlberg yesterday, it was 8% of young women voting FPÖ and 27% of young men.

I would say that's a difference compared to Poland, considering we have taken in 150.000 asylum seekers the last few years ... and Poland almost none.

The PiS is not a secular white nationalist party oriented around immigration policy. It is a social-minded Catholic revanchist party that has only begun recently to grow xenophobic and authoritarian. Konfedracja is closer to FPO than PiS amd they got 19 percent among young voters.

But the truth is both countries have a problem with right wing extremism. The difference is that Austrian youth are secular, multicultural, progressive, and economically prosperous. The Polish youth who are like that are in Berlin, Vienna, London, Dublin, Stockholm, etc. So the Polish youth in Poland are split between religiously devout Catholics, typical European leftists, and a huge group of often the stereotypical "economically distressed" sort who never managed to leave the country and want to blame Jews and mythical Islamic hoards for that sad fact. It is that last group who you see supporting neo nazis and parading in nationalist marches.

To further this point, a vote abroad map:



The type of voter who would move to an urban city for work (and contribute to the global trend of left growing in cities, right in rurals) is taking advantage of Schengen.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #346 on: October 14, 2019, 12:48:34 PM »

Eh, Konfedracja polled well (as did SLD) in quite a few of the polling stations here, so be careful not to push the obvious narratives too far. Of course those polling stations have very low turnout relative to the size of the Polish population here.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #347 on: October 14, 2019, 12:57:29 PM »

Of all the countries that would vote SLD i feel like Colombia is a odd place. Granted for these international map things outside of the large countries its often embassy staff/NGOs.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #348 on: October 14, 2019, 01:03:54 PM »

In fact, my Experience of Poles in Germany is that quite a lot are very right-wing. These are probably however of the Kind that do not vote in Polish elections.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #349 on: October 14, 2019, 01:18:01 PM »


Piekarska and Napieralski who joined them.


As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

Do you have a full breakdown of seats somewhere?

Not yet.
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