2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

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Honolulu, HI mayoral poll
Mason-Dixon
Oct 12-14, 625 RV, MoE: 4%

Blangiardi 49%
Amemiya 36%
Undecided 15%

Mayor Caldwell COVID approval: 38/49 (-11)

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-poll-shows-commanding-lead-for-blangiardi-in-mayors-race/

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AR (Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College)
Oct 11-13, 647 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Issue 1: “...the ballot proposal that makes permanent a current half-cent sales tax for roads and highways.“

For 59%
Against 31%
Don’t know 10%

Issue 2: “...would alter Arkansas’ term limits law by eliminating the lifetime ban after 16 years. It would allow state lawmakers to serve 12 years, wait four years, and then have the ability to serve another 12 years.“

For 48%
Against 28%
Don’t know 24%

Issue 3: “...reforms a number of processes in the ballot initiative process.“

Against 35%
For 20%
Don’t know 45%

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/10/poll-highway-funding-proposal-issue-1-poised-to-pass/

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CA (Probolsky Research)

Proposition 18: “The Constitutional Amendment to lower the voting age in California to 17 for Primary and Special Elections, if the teenagers will turn 18 by the next General Election“

No 52%
Yes 45%
Undecided/no answer 3%

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2020/10/16/california-voters-rejecting-proposition-18-which-would-lower-voting-age/

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CA (David Binder Research)
Oct 17-19, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Proposition 16: “the ballot measure to restore affirmative action in California“

Yes 45%
No 45%
Undecided 10%

https://sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article246582798.html

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CA (PPIC)
Oct 9-18, 1185 LV, MoE: 4.3%

Proposition 15: “It taxes commercial and industrial property based on current market value, instead of purchase price. The fiscal impact is increased property taxes on commercial properties worth more than $3 million providing $6.5 billion to $11.5 billion in new funding to local governments and schools.“

Yes 49%
No 45%
Don’t know 6%

Proposition 16: Restore affirmative action.

No 50%
Yes 37%
Don’t know 13%

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2020.pdf

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Leon County, FL - Institute of Nonprofit Innovation and Excellence/Sachs Media Group
Oct 4-6, 850 voters, MoE: 3.4%

Children’s Services Council ballot question

Yes 70%
No 22%
Undecided 8%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/376004-poll-finds-leon-county-voters-support-childrens-services-council

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FL - St. Pete’s Polls
Oct 21-22, 2527 LV, MoE: 2%

This model ended up favoring Republicans by about 1% more than our statewide polls for the last several months.

Amendment 3: California-style primaries
Yes 37%
No 44%
Undecided/won’t say 19%

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October21_U5GHV.pdf

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CA - David Binder Research
Oct 17-19, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Proposition 16: Restore affirmative action in California.
Yes 45%
No 45%
Undecided 10%

https://voteyesonprop16.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/53/DBR-Prop-16-Memo-v4.pdf

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CA - Spectrum News/Ipsos
Oct 7-15, 1400 adults, MoE: 3%

Prop 15: Property tax measure
Support 55%
Oppose 29%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California
Support 38%
Oppose 28%
Don’t know 34%

Prop 20: Expanding the list of violent crimes for which early release from prison is not an option
Support 59%
Oppose 25%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Support 43%
Oppose 36%
Don’t know 21%

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 62%
Oppose 23%
Don’t know 15%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_california_topline_102120_0.pdf

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CA - UC Berkeley
Oct 16-21, 5352 LV

Prop 15: Property tax measure
Support 49%
Oppose 42%
Undecided 9%

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California
Oppose 49%
Support 38%
Undecided 13%

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Oppose 48%
Support 37%
Undecided 15%

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 46%
Oppose 42%
Undecided 12%

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-26/berkeley-poll-california-prop-22-15-races-tighten-november-2020-election

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https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1320697839463219201?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

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Miami-Dade Mayor - SEA Research (Daniella Levine Cava internal)
Oct 20-22, 402 LV, MoE: 5.3%

Levine Cava 45%
Bovo 30%
Undecided 25%

Levine Cava fav: +16
Bovo fav: “even”

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/377192-survey-levine-cava-comfortable-lead

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https://twitter.com/13DanKennedy/status/1321390642799529984

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Maricopa County, AZ - Justice Collaborative Institute
Oct. 22-25, ? LV, MoE: 3.9%

County Attorney:
Gunnigle (D) 38%
Adel (R-inc) 32%
Undecided 30%

Sheriff:
Penzone (D-inc) 47%
Sheridan (R) 33%
Undecided 20%

https://tjcinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/From-President-and-Senate-to-County-Attorney-and-Sheriff-Democrats-Lead-Up-and-Down-the-Ballot-in-Arizona-1.pdf

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Manatee County, FL Commission District 1 - St. Pete Polls
Oct. 26, 344 LV, MoE: 5.3%

Satcher (R) 58%
Brown (D) 35%
Undecided 8%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/378172-poll-shows-james-satcher-coasting-into-manatee-commission-seat

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St. Petersburg, FL Mayor

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2021_StPetersburg_March2_J4FX9.pdf

March 2
581 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Darden Rice 15%
Wengay Newton 14%
Ken Welch 14%
Paul Congemi 5%
Michael Ingram 3%
Michael Levinson 3%
Vincent Nowicki 2%
Marcile Powers 1%
Unsure 43%

Rice vs Welch matchup

Ken Welch 31%
Darden Rice 24%
Unsure 45%

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Anchorage, AK Mayor

https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/election/poll-dunbar-bronson-well-ahead-of-the-pack-in-anchorage-mayoral-race/article_51140a88-8059-11eb-9994-23b5b976ad69.html

Forrest Dunbar 22%
Dave Brinson 20%
Bill Falsey 8%
Mike Robbins 8%
Bill Evans 5%
George Martinez 2%
Other 2%
Not sure 33%