2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread (user search)
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  2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 57289 times)
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« on: January 30, 2018, 04:35:31 PM »

Per Politico, sounds like Tancredo is OUT in Colorado

For a guy who split the right-wing vote in 2010 (which didn’t really matter in the end), he sure shows awareness about him losing.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2018, 11:22:51 AM »

Map of polls:


I only averaged polls (and rounded accordingly) that were taken STARTING ON OR AFTER May 1 (for example, a poll started on April 30th was not used). I looked at Wikipedia and used all non-internal polls within the time period, with the only other exception being the exclusion of a poll from Saint Leo University in Florida due to its horrible track record and extremely high percentage of undecideds. The matchups used are between the current major-party nominees in every state or, in states where some primaries have not happened yet, the leading candidates in primary polling (those elections are starred).

Seats that switch parties if the current polling holds:

Democratic Gains (Republican Losses)

-Arizona (Joe Garcia def. Doug Ducey)
-Florida (Gwen Graham def. Ron DeSantis)
-Illinois (J.B. Pritzker def. Bruce Rauner)
-New Mexico (Michelle Lujan Graham def. Steve Pearce)
-Ohio (Richard Cordray def. Mike DeWine)
-Oklahoma (Drew Edmonson def. Kevin Stitt)
-Wisconsin (Tony Evers def. Scott Walker)

Republican Gains (Independent Losses)

-Alaska (Mike Dunleavy def. Mark Begich and Bill Walker)


Seats that are at risk of switching parties if the current polling holds:

Republican-Held

-Georgia (Brian Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams)
-Maine (Shawn Moody vs. Janet Mills vs. Terry Hayes)

Democratic-Held

-Oregon (Kate Brown vs. Knute Buehler)


Side note: The New York matchup is just between Cuomo and Molinaro, but if you add in every other candidate, Cuomo's lead falls to a 19% margin.
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