2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[Virginiá]

I'm going to give this a try and see if it goes anywhere. This will be a thread for all things related to:

• Random news pertaining to gubernatorial/executive/legislative candidates
• Scandals
• Fundraising
• Ballot initiative news
• Whatever else you think is noteworthy but maybe doesn't need its own thread

My thought on this was not actually to cut down on threads on this board, but rather to try and encourage people to post things that they otherwise wouldn't have made a thread for.

[Virginiá]

Democratic group will spend $5 million to elect secretaries of state, the latest front in ‘voting wars’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/01/25/democratic-group-will-spend-5-million-to-elect-secretaries-of-state-the-latest-front-in-voting-wars/

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[Virginiá]

Federal District Court Issues Preliminary Injunction Barring NC Legislature’s Elimination of Partisan Primaries for Electing State Appeals and State Supreme Court Judges

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10tu98Ev5YuncO5CsoiHGehGCL4o3eJnQ/view

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For those no privy to what North Carolina GA Republicans did - they passed a bill eliminating judicial primaries, so that all candidates would just run on the same ballot. They said this was to give them time to redraw the judicial districts, and while this was partly true, obviously it means they wanted time to gerrymander the districts. Further, by eliminating the primaries, this would mean backed up lines at polling places and with such a long list of candidates, the incumbent and more well-known judges would gain an advantage. This means Republicans gain an advantage.

There are 2 state Supreme Court seats up this year, and one is a Republican. Knowing NC, even a wave environment doesn't guarantee anything, but Democrats should have a decent shot at it.

https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_Supreme_Court_elections,_2018

[Virginiá]

Will Missouri GOPers Be First To Pounce On Trump’s Census Citizenship Gambit?

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/missouri-citizen-redistricting-ballot-iniative

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Exactly like I was saying in ths Ross/citizenship census question thread - that Republicans are not being honest about why they are adding the question, and that it's primary purpose is to give Republicans a way to draw maps that favor their party even more:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291954.msg6203971#msg6203971

Meanwhile, their supporters love it mostly because it's a middle finger to undocumented immigrants / pro-immigration advocates, while establishment/partisan hacks love it because they want to game the system however they can because all that matters anymore to them is winning elections and holding power, no matter what it takes.

[Virginiá]

In Missouri, in addition to voting on Right to Work on Tuesday, there will be a number of important ballot initiatives in November. There is CLEAN Missouri, an ethics/campaign finance/redistricting reform initiative, a minimum wage increase to 12 dollars an hour by 2023, and not one, not two, but three different medical marijuana petitions with various tax schemes for various programs. There is also the possibility of voting on the gas tax, though that is being challenged in court since it was amended on to a bill for license plates for veterans. The conservative effort to get Right to Work on the ballot again, this time as a constitutional amendment, failed to collect enough signatures.

Just wondering, I noticed the ethics initiative that included redistricting reform was only for legislative districts. How come they didn't also include Congressional districts? Do they plan to do that in the future?

[Virginiá]

Which of these ballot initiative topics are you most interested in?

[...]

Or something else altogether?

FL amendment 4 and Michigan redistricting / voting rights reform amendments. I don't think the MI initiative expanding voter access has been put officially on the ballot yet, though.

[Virginiá]

‘Hitler was right’: KC area winner of Missouri House primary leaves trail of bigotry

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article216387050.html

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[Virginiá]

By overturning ballot initiatives, more lawmakers are rejecting the will of their voters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/08/14/daily-202-by-overturning-ballot-initiatives-more-lawmakers-are-rejecting-the-will-of-their-voters/5b724ae01b326b4f9e90a6f2/

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Really it's a bit unnerving when this start to becomes a trend, with lawmakers starting to think that the voters really don't matter and their opinions are irrelevant, so just toss aside initiatives they approve sometimes by overwhelming majorities. I'm beginning to think America needs a wave of initiative tampering laws, which essentially prevent lawmakers from making changes to initiated statutes unless they get the changes approved by voters. It would be a shame if they were so power hungry that they forced the people to tie their hands, because there are times when initiatives need some tinkering after the fact and it's much easier for lawmakers to do.

[Virginiá]

Didn't seem worthy of a new thread, but:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-hacking-exclusive/exclusive-fbi-probing-cyber-attack-on-congressional-campaign-in-california-sources-idUSKBN1L22BZ

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[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/10/they-have-taken-away-our-vote-michigan-approves-minimum-wage-hike-paid-sick-leave-setting-up-clash/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2fc91016731b

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So thanks to this loophole all work getting these progressive measures on the ballot turned to nothing. Now these organizers have to try again in 2020 to start for nothing.

Ballot initiative tampering is part of the GOP's troubling anti-democracy streak over the past ~4 years. In South Dakota, they passed an "emergency bill" with a 3/4th vote to get rid of the ethics commission that votes recently approved in what was a brazen FU to the voters of SD. Voters then moved to get it on the ballot again for 2018, and Republicans moved to heavily restrict ballot initiatives, including subject limitations and a ban on outside funding.

Michigan Republicans have also long used cheap tricks to completely overturn the will of the voters. They passed that emergency manager bill that led to Flint's poisoning and it was overturned by voters in a veto referendum, then they passed it again with a money allocation tied to it and voters were prohibited from overturning it due to a ban on veto referendums for budgets. Republicans used this trick on numerous other initiatives. They also shortened the time window to try and short circuit a marijuana legalization initiative as well.

Arizona also came awfully close to South Dakota-style restrictions in 2016.

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My opinion is that much like Republicans calling for states rights but refusing to allow cities/towns to govern themselves, Republicans do not wish to share any power with anyone else, particularly when it goes against their agenda. And they have no qualms about repealing initiatives voters approve by overwhelming majorities. Sort of like how a parent might dictate to their child what they can and cannot do. This is made worse by gerrymandering and voter suppression, which emboldens them to do this with little care for repercussions, as they have largely walled themselves off from accountability.

Not to say this is limited to Republicans either. Democrats have had their fair share of initiative tampering, but most of the recent, more serious examples are from Republicans.

[Virginiá]

Not sure on the exact margins, but the new LA Times polls of competitive CA House districts showed the gas tax repeal initiative failing pretty badly:

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It's hard to see how that passes if it's only getting 1/3rd of the vote in Walters' district. It was supposed to be cat nip for Orange County voters. I suppose it doesn't help that the No camp is outspending Yes 18 to 1.

[Virginiá]

Conservative group spending $1.2M to defeat Proposal 2 redistricting commission

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/23/devos-proposal-2-redistricting-opposition/1743725002/

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If they really wanted to tank this, they probably should have been more aggressive in fundraising and outreach sooner. But VNP might want to start raising more money of their own to at least partially counteract funding on the conservative side. The only way I could see it failing given the last couple polls is if conservatives raised an insane amount of money and were allowed to advertise unchallenged, as redistricting is a relatively opaque subject that people can be manipulated on.

I'm a bit skeptical it will fail in an election that is largely going to be super favorable to Michigan Democrats though.

[Virginiá]

Redistricting initiative support surges in Michigan (now 59-29). Others are comfortably ahead.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/poll-michigan-ballot-proposals/1764291002/

Also lol @ this pollster's last name: Bernie Porn

[Virginiá]

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.

[Virginiá]

I can't help but feel like Michigan Republicans are going to resist the voting rights expansion passed by voters. Whitmer's vetoes could prevent them from being sneaky, but if they pass implementing legislation before she takes office, they will have more discretion.

For example, perhaps Republicans only allow same-day registration at govt offices and not at polling places during election day (the amendment implies at polling places too but Republicans can ignore that and hope the state supreme court bails them out)? There is a big difference. Or what about no-excuse absentee voting? Does this mean MI gets actual in-person early voting or are they going to stick to mail? Because, again, there is a huge difference in the actual effect on the convenience of voting for people. How will election audits be done?

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but one thing I've learned is to never, ever trust Republicans to implement ballot initiatives fairly. Michigan Republicans are already proving why that is with the min. wage and paid sick leave initiatives they short-circuited. And we all know the emergency manager veto referendum they invalidated with cheap tricks.

[Virginiá]

Should have waited until 2020 to get this one on the ballot tbh:

https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1067423905349099520

[Virginiá]

Not sure where else to put this, but:

https://twitter.com/BMcM2018/status/1072532980835463175

[Virginiá]

The idea behind fair maps isn't so much the expectation that Democrats would hold the legislature every cycle, but that they'd at least win majorities from time to time, especially when they get D+5 - D+8 in the legislative popular vote, like Michigan Democrats have twice under this decade's maps. But, because the maps are what they are, that makes even landslide wins ineffective. If you're saying they wouldn't have in 2012, or had a reasonable shot even this cycle, that's bs.

Speaks a lot about the system when the legislative chamber that is supposed to be most receptive to changes in public mood is this ineffective at responding to it.

[Virginiá]

Ben Kieckhefer (R) resigning from Nevada State Senate. County Commission will pick an R replacement for this vacancy

https://twitter.com/Ben_Kieckhefer/status/1446466446603669511

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/_lucillesherman/status/1643313744720658433

[Virginiá]

Democrats might have a shot at expanding their state supreme court majority from 4 - 3 to 5 - 2 this cycle:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1768751537025683458

Democrats could use that boost now since they are defending a seat every election cycle until 2032.