2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[Ebsy]

https://themissouritimes.com/52223/new-polling-projects-hawley-with-slight-edge-over-mccaskill-right-to-work-failing-in-august/

Also in the Remington poll of Missouri included survey language asking how Missourians plan to vote on Prop A when it is on the ballot in the August primary. A No vote on Prop A will keep Missouri a closed union shop state, while a Yes vote would uphold the RTW law passed by the legislature last year:

Yes: 38
No: 56
Undecided: 6

Thank you union thugs!

[Ebsy]

In Missouri, in addition to voting on Right to Work on Tuesday, there will be a number of important ballot initiatives in November. There is CLEAN Missouri, an ethics/campaign finance/redistricting reform initiative, a minimum wage increase to 12 dollars an hour by 2023, and not one, not two, but three different medical marijuana petitions with various tax schemes for various programs. There is also the possibility of voting on the gas tax, though that is being challenged in court since it was amended on to a bill for license plates for veterans. The conservative effort to get Right to Work on the ballot again, this time as a constitutional amendment, failed to collect enough signatures.

[Ebsy]

I guess I will be posting Missouri Proposition A (Right to Work) analysis in this thread. I think almost everyone expects it to go down in defeat, the question is really by how much. Turnout is projected to be fairly high (30%) for an August primary election in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County.

[Ebsy]

I guess I will be posting Missouri Proposition A (Right to Work) analysis in this thread. I think almost everyone expects it to go down in defeat, the question is really by how much. Turnout is projected to be fairly high (30%) for an August primary election in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County.

Geographically how do you see the vote going?

My best guess is that No will win in the big cities (Jackson and Clay Counties for KC and St. Louis City and County for STL) as well as areas with a lot of union strength: the lead belt, the Bootheel, Jefferson County (south of St. Louis), St. Joseph, Jefferson City and Columbia, maybe even super Republican places like Cape Girardeau and Springfield. There are a lot of rural/small city counties where industry is important and most of the factories are unionized: St. Francois County, Ste. Genevieve, Warren and Lincoln Counties, the Lead Belt and the Bootheel, Marshall and Sedalia, Hannibal, Macon and Moberly, etc. Not sure if No will win, but it will run far ahead of a Democrat in those places. The big question is St. Charles County, which while extremely Republican has historically been a bastion of pro labor Republicans, and has a heavy middle class union presence, especially in West Alton, St. Charles and St. Peters.

A surprising number of Republican primary candidates are campaigning against Prop A, trying to distinguish themselves from the poisoned GOP brand in Jefferson City.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/StLouisCoVotes/status/1026904563134214147

Looks like confirmation of high turnout in St. Louis County. There's been heavy rain off and on all morning and into the afterrnoon. There will be a big surge in voters starting 5, so turnout at 15% now is a rather good indication.

Edit: Also illustrative:

https://twitter.com/mattdsain/status/1026904380740698117

This precinct is in HD 14, which covers part of the Northland, the largely middle class, unionized part of the KC suburbs extending into Clay County. The incumbent, Republican Kevin Corlew, is a pro labor Republican who was recently beaten like a dog by Lauren Arthur in the SD 17 special election to replace Ryan Silvey, another pro labor Republican. High turnout here can only be good for defeating Prop A.

[Ebsy]

I've seen reports of high turnout in North City and South City since the rain let off, already surpassing 2014 turnout. There is an expected surge coming at 5:00, when all the union job sites let their workers off to head to the polls.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

It's beautiful.

St. Genevieve county voting 85-15 against and Iron 78-22 against!

The Farmington/St. Francois County result is equally as eye popping.

[Ebsy]

Prop A is losing in St. Charles with 68% voting no.

Jefferson County: 79% no.

[Ebsy]

Glorious!

[Ebsy]

It's typical for the incumbent party's committee to raise massive amounts of money, and is especially true in this case due to Trump's fundraising efforts for the RNC. For the DNC, it's not like any of the Democratic candidates are raising money for it at this stage. It seems like the DNC has more cash on hand than debt so it is not exactly drowning in debt at this point, but it certainly is having money problems. Whether this matters or not, who can really say?