2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Birmingham, Alabama mayor nonpartisan primary
https://www.alreporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/CS-Woodfin-Report.pdf

Chism Strategies/Randall Woodfin internal
April 1-5
662 likely voters
MoE: 3.93%

If the election for Mayor were held today, would you likely vote to re-elect Randall Woodfin or would you prefer some other candidate?: Woodfin +51

Woodfin (inc.) 67
Some other candidate 16
Not sure 17

If the candidates for Mayor of Birmingham were William Bell, LaShaunda Scales, Randall Woodfin and Chris Woods who would you likely favor if the election were held today?: Woodfin +36

Woodfin (inc.) 49
Bell 14
Scales 12
Woods 4
Unsure 21

Cincinnati, Ohio nonpartisan primary (occurred in May)
https://eu.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2021/04/17/cincinnati-corruption-how-voters-view-texting-pay-to-play-turmoil-city-hall/7220946002/

Strategic Insights Research
April 9-12
237 likely voters
MoE: 5.34%

Mayoral election: Pureval + 9
Aftab Pureval 24
Herman Najoli 15
David Mann 10
Cecil Thomas 9
Gavi Begtrup 7
Raffel Prophett 3
Undecided 32

Pureval and Mann ultimately advanced with 39% and 29% of the vote respectively.

Seattle, Washington mayoral nonpartisan primary polls

https://publicola.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Gonzalez-Polling-Memo.pdf

GQR Research/Lorena González internal: Harrell +1
March 23-28
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Bruce Harrell 20
Lorena González 19
Colleen Echohawk 9
Someone else 8
Jessyn Farrell 6
Undecided 38

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l4Yac_P7Ne6mJCiwjxQsVnFa_5dk5NHe/view

ALG Research/Jessyn Farrell internal: Harrell +12
May 10-16
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Bruce Harrell 23
Lorena González 11
Colleen Echohawk 7
Jessyn Farrell 7
Casey Sixkiller 5 (awesome name)
Andrew Grant Houston 3
Someone else 3
Undecided 41

[Alben Barkley]

Detroit election results:

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/primary-day-in-michigan-live-results-trickle-in

Duggan re-elected overwhelmingly. And a proposal that Rashida Tlaib strongly supported and called the "people's proposal," which among other things called for reparations, was rejected by nearly 40 points.

In Detroit.

It's almost as if the Squad's brand of "progressivism" is really, really, really unpopular. Even among the people they claim to represent.

[Virginiá]

Ben Kieckhefer (R) resigning from Nevada State Senate. County Commission will pick an R replacement for this vacancy

https://twitter.com/Ben_Kieckhefer/status/1446466446603669511

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/cameron_easley/status/1461351596634173442

[ElectionsGuy]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

[ElectionsGuy]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

[ElectionsGuy]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

Those are probably more accurate because lots of Democrats approve of them. The ones who are more polarizing (like Murphy, Whitmer, DeSantis, Abbott, etc.) are the ones where too many Dems and Dem-leaning independents are more likely to skew one way and lead to an inaccurate poll.

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

Those are probably more accurate because lots of Democrats approve of them. The ones who are more polarizing (like Murphy, Whitmer, DeSantis, Abbott, etc.) are the ones where too many Dems and Dem-leaning independents are more likely to skew one way and lead to an inaccurate poll.

That seems to be plausible. And what do you think the impact of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills are going to be on next year's midterms? My belief is that they will have little to no impact whatsoever, and won't be of benefit to the Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

Those are probably more accurate because lots of Democrats approve of them. The ones who are more polarizing (like Murphy, Whitmer, DeSantis, Abbott, etc.) are the ones where too many Dems and Dem-leaning independents are more likely to skew one way and lead to an inaccurate poll.

That seems to be plausible. And what do you think the impact of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills are going to be on next year's midterms? My belief is that they will have little to no impact whatsoever, and won't be of benefit to the Democrats.

My initial thinking was the actual infrastructure bill might help Biden a bit, but so far there's no evidence that's true. The BBB bill on the other hand (if it even passes) I think will only motivate Republicans more and end up hurting Dems. Much like how Dems hammered healthcare in '18 in opposition to repeal (which was unsuccessful anyway) I expect Reps to hammer inflation and opposition to this bill as the key themes.

Some people seem to think that this bill is way more popular than 'Obamacare' so therefore Dems will not have the same kind of "shellacking" and backlash they had in 2010. The thing is I would argue both that polling/media is more screwed up now than it was back then and Republicans still haven't gone hard against it yet with their propaganda.

If you poll this bill and frame it the same way the DNC wants you to frame it, you'll come back with about 60% of the country wanting it. There's no doubt many individual provisions are popular, and most people would love the provisions in theory, but the question which pollsters don't ask is is it worth taxes being raised, the debt/deficit being increased, and possible inflation increases? The thing with the left and why their policy framings seem so popular is because they're good at offering attractive things that people want but that comes with many different consequences that people also have to think about. So most polling on this legislation is not going to be a reliable way of getting to people's real views. It's just too complicated.

What's shocking and quite frankly frightening from a Democratic perspective is on the question of whether it'd help them personally or help the economy, most people think it would not change the status quo or hurt them/the economy. So that would indicate most people are not sold on the effectiveness of it, even if they like it in theory. Most Americans also don't know what's in the bill because it keeps changing. So until it would actually become law, don't expect coherent and strong opinions on it based on a generalized poll question.

[Calthrina950]

So Morning Consult shows Phil Murphy with a 57% approval rating, when he just got re-elected with only 51%.

Is there any reason I should trust that Gretchen Whitmer and Steve Sisolak are actually at 50%, among others?

Are you arguing that Morning Consult is overestimating the popularity of various Democratic governors? I am not saying that you are wrong about this.

Probably. Not for sure on every one, there's probably lots of variance there, but it's likely on average given that real election results are worth far more value than any polls. And Morning Consult has a record of not being great and overestimating Democrats.

What about Republicans then? Their ratings for Scott, Baker, Hogan, and Sununu seem to be very plausible.

Those are probably more accurate because lots of Democrats approve of them. The ones who are more polarizing (like Murphy, Whitmer, DeSantis, Abbott, etc.) are the ones where too many Dems and Dem-leaning independents are more likely to skew one way and lead to an inaccurate poll.

That seems to be plausible. And what do you think the impact of the reconciliation and infrastructure bills are going to be on next year's midterms? My belief is that they will have little to no impact whatsoever, and won't be of benefit to the Democrats.

My initial thinking was the actual infrastructure bill might help Biden a bit, but so far there's no evidence that's true. The BBB bill on the other hand (if it even passes) I think will only motivate Republicans more and end up hurting Dems. Much like how Dems hammered healthcare in '18 in opposition to repeal (which was unsuccessful anyway) I expect Reps to hammer inflation and opposition to this bill as the key themes.

Some people seem to think that this bill is way more popular than 'Obamacare' so therefore Dems will not have the same kind of "shellacking" and backlash they had in 2010. The thing is I would argue both that polling/media is more screwed up now than it was back then and Republicans still haven't gone hard against it yet with their propaganda.

If you poll this bill and frame it the same way the DNC wants you to frame it, you'll come back with about 60% of the country wanting it. There's no doubt many individual provisions are popular, and most people would love the provisions in theory, but the question which pollsters don't ask is is it worth taxes being raised, the debt/deficit being increased, and possible inflation increases? The thing with the left and why their policy framings seem so popular is because they're good at offering attractive things that people want but that comes with many different consequences that people also have to think about. So most polling on this legislation is not going to be a reliable way of getting to people's real views. It's just too complicated.

What's shocking and quite frankly frightening from a Democratic perspective is on the question of whether it'd help them personally or help the economy, most people think it would not change the status quo or hurt them/the economy. So that would indicate most people are not sold on the effectiveness of it, even if they like it in theory. Most Americans also don't know what's in the bill because it keeps changing. So until it would actually become law, don't expect coherent and strong opinions on it based on a generalized poll question.

I have a few more questions to ask. Your points about the infrastructure bill certainly seem to be playing themselves out. But what about the pandemic? How much longer do you envision us being trapped in this situation? Cases are rising again, restrictions remain in place, and we still don't have a sense of normalcy. Are voters going to punish the Administration for this? Or is the pandemic going to be submerged by other issues?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1466151955466801156

FWIW. Then again, these clowns never moved NJ out of Safe D.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1466151955466801156

FWIW. Then again, these clowns never moved NJ out of Safe D.

Crystal Ball didn't beat around the bush, at least (though I would just put it all the way at Safe D to start out)-

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1466198573163372552

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1466771362584879107

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1480574725763919875?t=sZeQ4r0Kd2g6Q2jYFe...

[xavier110]

https://mobile.twitter.com/samueljrob/status/1544484488247447553

Wow. This is a huge number, as they needed 400k. Abortion likely on the ballot in MI. Definitely going to be a high turnout midterm election in MI, likely to Whitmer’s benefit.

I signed a similar petition here in AZ. They were swarming with people. It got to a later start than the MI initiative, but they could eke out the needed signatures. They submit the petitions by the 7th.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/samueljrob/status/1544484488247447553

Wow. This is a huge number, as they needed 400k. Abortion likely on the ballot in MI. Definitely going to be a high turnout midterm election in MI, likely to Whitmer’s benefit.

I signed a similar petition here in AZ. They were swarming with people. It got to a later start than the MI initiative, but they could eke out the needed signatures. They submit the petitions by the 7th.

They didn’t, but you bet your ass it’ll be on the ballot in Arizona in 2024.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1565070605325504517

Bruh.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1565070605325504517

Bruh.

So is it republicans' position that voters are only allowed to vote on issues that republicans deem them worthy of voting on?

I don't remember there being a random board of bureaucrats split equally between democrats and republicans in Ohio in '04 that had the ability to block the voters from voting to ban gay marriage in the state. Funny how this ability to block a vote from ever happening like here in MI or the ability to completely f****** ignore the will of a voter referendum like with the voter disenfranchisement amendment in FL only ever benefits one political party and not the other.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1565070605325504517

Bruh.

The MI Supreme Court is Liberal Controlled. It should make it on the ballot just fine.

[Roll Roons]

Sabato moves MI and PA from Lean D to Likely D: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-28-2022/

[brucejoel99]

A great day for the Ashley Moody 2026 gubernatorial campaign:

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1595121317107597312

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/_lucillesherman/status/1643313744720658433

[xavier110]

Organized effort kicks off to get abortion on 2024 Arizona ballot

This could be what seals it for Biden and Gallego here.