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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  2020 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 30792 times)
ERM64man
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« Reply #25 on: June 25, 2018, 07:55:15 pm »

Who wins California's Assembly 15 runoff, Buffy Wicks or Jovanka Beckles?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #26 on: July 11, 2018, 12:03:18 pm »
« Edited: July 11, 2018, 12:17:34 pm by Ebsy »

https://themissouritimes.com/52223/new-polling-projects-hawley-with-slight-edge-over-mccaskill-right-to-work-failing-in-august/

Also in the Remington poll of Missouri included survey language asking how Missourians plan to vote on Prop A when it is on the ballot in the August primary. A No vote on Prop A will keep Missouri a closed union shop state, while a Yes vote would uphold the RTW law passed by the legislature last year:

Yes: 38
No: 56
Undecided: 6

Thank you union thugs!
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2018, 12:19:19 pm »

The NC Democratic Party raised $2.3 million in Q2 and now has $5.8 million total.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article214718950.html
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American2020
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« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2018, 05:55:39 am »

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/three-republican-governors-face-increasingly-tough-election-contests/

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Gass3268
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« Reply #29 on: July 19, 2018, 07:11:54 am »

What makes Wisconsin different from Iowa? Is it purely waiting to see if Evers wins the primary?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: July 19, 2018, 09:06:02 am »

What makes Wisconsin different from Iowa? Is it purely waiting to see if Evers wins the primary?

Looks like Evers would make this a Toss-Up:

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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: July 19, 2018, 09:06:48 am »

Also,  Fred Hubbell has a ton of money for his race in Iowa:

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Mondale
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« Reply #32 on: July 19, 2018, 09:14:51 am »

What makes Wisconsin different from Iowa? Is it purely waiting to see if Evers wins the primary?

Looks like Evers would make this a Toss-Up:



Evers will crush Walker. Tis the end of the road for Koch wonder boy
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #33 on: July 19, 2018, 09:19:17 am »

Why do they still rate MN as a tossup? Pawlenty will get annihilated as long as Murphy isn't the nominee, and he still likely loses against her.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: July 19, 2018, 10:19:44 am »

Why do they still rate MN as a tossup? Pawlenty will get annihilated as long as Murphy isn't the nominee, and he still likely loses against her.

Again, probably waiting for the primary.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2018, 01:51:16 am »

That's a lot of unnecessary caution for a lot of places that are heavily Democratic favored, primaries be damned. Shifting Iowa to tossup is the one place where they're actually ahead of the Atlas conventional wisdom.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2018, 10:00:59 am »

That's a lot of unnecessary caution for a lot of places that are heavily Democratic favored, primaries be damned. Shifting Iowa to tossup is the one place where they're actually ahead of the Atlas conventional wisdom.

IA is already a tossup ...

Hubbell is a good candidate and IA-Dems had a surge of 4% during June in party registration.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #37 on: July 25, 2018, 03:42:38 pm »

Get hype!

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Zaybay
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« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2018, 03:51:12 pm »

Get hype!


10 minutes left!

Hoping for an Evers tie or lead, Walz in MN, and Abdul or Whitmer in the lead.
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #39 on: July 26, 2018, 01:15:45 am »

Get hype!


10 minutes left!

Hoping for an Evers tie or lead, Walz in MN, and Abdul or Whitmer in the lead.
Just a quick note for those wondering, the horserace numbers are going to be released today (Thursday)
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #40 on: July 26, 2018, 04:04:54 pm »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1022588117381992448

MN:  D+11
MI:  D+9
WI:  D+13
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Ebsy
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« Reply #41 on: August 02, 2018, 12:26:55 pm »

In Missouri, in addition to voting on Right to Work on Tuesday, there will be a number of important ballot initiatives in November. There is CLEAN Missouri, an ethics/campaign finance/redistricting reform initiative, a minimum wage increase to 12 dollars an hour by 2023, and not one, not two, but three different medical marijuana petitions with various tax schemes for various programs. There is also the possibility of voting on the gas tax, though that is being challenged in court since it was amended on to a bill for license plates for veterans. The conservative effort to get Right to Work on the ballot again, this time as a constitutional amendment, failed to collect enough signatures.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #42 on: August 02, 2018, 01:51:50 pm »

In Missouri, in addition to voting on Right to Work on Tuesday, there will be a number of important ballot initiatives in November. There is CLEAN Missouri, an ethics/campaign finance/redistricting reform initiative, a minimum wage increase to 12 dollars an hour by 2023, and not one, not two, but three different medical marijuana petitions with various tax schemes for various programs. There is also the possibility of voting on the gas tax, though that is being challenged in court since it was amended on to a bill for license plates for veterans. The conservative effort to get Right to Work on the ballot again, this time as a constitutional amendment, failed to collect enough signatures.

Just wondering, I noticed the ethics initiative that included redistricting reform was only for legislative districts. How come they didn't also include Congressional districts? Do they plan to do that in the future?
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #43 on: August 02, 2018, 06:07:34 pm »


I think Alaska is well placed as a toss-up, but there's a lot to hate here. Minnesota and Colorado is toss-ups as you noted is just silly. New Mexico is only lean D seems odd, but I have to say that having Iowa as a toss-up at this point seems bearish on Republican chances.
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ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn
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« Reply #44 on: August 02, 2018, 10:47:09 pm »

I think Alaska is well placed as a toss-up, but there's a lot to hate here. Minnesota and Colorado is toss-ups as you noted is just silly. New Mexico is only lean D seems odd, but I have to say that having Iowa as a toss-up at this point seems bearish on Republican chances.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2018, 11:04:27 am »

Which of these ballot initiative topics are you most interested in?

Drug legalization/possession:
MI: IISS - Marijuana legalization for recreational use
OH: Issue 1 - Makes drug possession and use offenses misdemeanors and allocates savings to programs

Medicaid:
ID: Prop 2 - Expands Medicaid under the ACA
NE:          Medicaid Expansion Initiative (may appear on ballot)
UT: Prop 3 - Expands Medicaid under the ACA

Minimum Wage:
MI:          Minimum Wage Increase Initiative (may appear on ballot)
MO: Prop B - Increases the minimum wage to $12

Time Change:
CA: Prop 7 - Authorizes legislature to provide for permanent daylight saving time if the federal government allows

Voting Access:
FL: Amndmnt 4 - Restores the right to vote for most people with prior felony convictions upon completion of their sentences

Or something else altogether?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #46 on: August 07, 2018, 01:09:24 pm »

I guess I will be posting Missouri Proposition A (Right to Work) analysis in this thread. I think almost everyone expects it to go down in defeat, the question is really by how much. Turnout is projected to be fairly high (30%) for an August primary election in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #47 on: August 07, 2018, 01:14:48 pm »

Which of these ballot initiative topics are you most interested in?

[...]

Or something else altogether?

FL amendment 4 and Michigan redistricting / voting rights reform amendments. I don't think the MI initiative expanding voter access has been put officially on the ballot yet, though.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2018, 01:14:59 pm »

I guess I will be posting Missouri Proposition A (Right to Work) analysis in this thread. I think almost everyone expects it to go down in defeat, the question is really by how much. Turnout is projected to be fairly high (30%) for an August primary election in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County.

Geographically how do you see the vote going?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #49 on: August 07, 2018, 01:44:03 pm »

I guess I will be posting Missouri Proposition A (Right to Work) analysis in this thread. I think almost everyone expects it to go down in defeat, the question is really by how much. Turnout is projected to be fairly high (30%) for an August primary election in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County.

Geographically how do you see the vote going?

My best guess is that No will win in the big cities (Jackson and Clay Counties for KC and St. Louis City and County for STL) as well as areas with a lot of union strength: the lead belt, the Bootheel, Jefferson County (south of St. Louis), St. Joseph, Jefferson City and Columbia, maybe even super Republican places like Cape Girardeau and Springfield. There are a lot of rural/small city counties where industry is important and most of the factories are unionized: St. Francois County, Ste. Genevieve, Warren and Lincoln Counties, the Lead Belt and the Bootheel, Marshall and Sedalia, Hannibal, Macon and Moberly, etc. Not sure if No will win, but it will run far ahead of a Democrat in those places. The big question is St. Charles County, which while extremely Republican has historically been a bastion of pro labor Republicans, and has a heavy middle class union presence, especially in West Alton, St. Charles and St. Peters.

A surprising number of Republican primary candidates are campaigning against Prop A, trying to distinguish themselves from the poisoned GOP brand in Jefferson City.
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