2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[Canis]

No clue if the jungle primaries thing is gonna pass in FL half the polls have it failing by 20 points and the other half have it passing by 20 points

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

No clue if the jungle primaries thing is gonna pass in FL half the polls have it failing by 20 points and the other half have it passing by 20 points

It needs to clear a 60% threshold to pass. I suspect it'll just miss that.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Roanoke College poll of VA's redistricting amendment:

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20Oct31.2020%20Political%20topline.pdf

Oct 23-29, 802 LV, MoE: 3.5%

Support 48%
Oppose 26%
Refused 3%
Unsure 24%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout poll of the election reform amendment (further tighten lobbying rules in exchange for reversing the anti-gerrymandering part of the 2018 amendment:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5f9d55cbe9a0e4631ae6f106/1604146650952/MOSCOUT+Statewide+General+Election+103020.pptx

Oct 28-29
1010 likely voters
MoE: 3%
Changes with Oct 14-15

No 56% (+6)
Yes 29% (+1)
Not sure 15% (-7)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

St. Pete Polls survey of Florida amendments: https://www.scribd.com/document/482346466/StPetePolls-2020-State-President-October30-F6JZP

Oct 29-30, 2758 LV, MoE: 1.9%

Amendment 2 - minimum wage, Changes with Sep 21-22
Yes 58% (-7)
No 35% (+12)
Undecided/won't say 8% (-5)

Amendment 3 - California-style primaries, Changes with Oct 21-22
No 48% (+4)
Yes 40% (+2)
Undecided/won't say 12% (-7)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Colorado Poll:

https://coloradosun.com/2020/11/01/new-poll-colorado-biden-trump-hickenlooper-gardner/

Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun
Oct 29 - Nov 1
Of 502 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Oct 8-13

Ban abortion except in case of danger to the mother's life after 22 weeks referendum:

Against 56%
For 38%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Nielson Brothers polling of SD:

https://www.southdacola.com/blog/2020/11/survey-nielson-brothers-polling-nbp-statewide-survey-october-24-28-2020/

Oct 24-28, 447 likely voters, MoE: 4.63%

Constitutional Amendment B authorizes the Legislature to allow sports wagering in Deadwood. How do you plan to vote?

For 43%
Against 38%
Unsure 19%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A poll of (FL) St. Petersburg's nonpartisan mayoral election this August from InsiderAdvantage for Fox 13:

https://www.fox13news.com/news/fox-13-poll-shows-ken-welch-is-tenuous-frontrunner-in-st-pete-mayoral-race

January 31
400 registered voters
MoE: 4.2%

Ken Welch (D): 12%
Wengay Newton (D): 8%
Darden Rice (D): 7%
Robert Blackmon (R): 6%
Deveron Gibbons (R): 0%
Undecided: 67%

Blackmon and Gibbons are hypothetical candidates.

[VAR]

St. Petersburg, FL Mayor

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2021_StPetersburg_March2_J4FX9.pdf

March 2
581 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Darden Rice 15%
Wengay Newton 14%
Ken Welch 14%
Paul Congemi 5%
Michael Ingram 3%
Michael Levinson 3%
Vincent Nowicki 2%
Marcile Powers 1%
Unsure 43%

Rice vs Welch matchup

Ken Welch 31%
Darden Rice 24%
Unsure 45%

[VAR]

Anchorage, AK Mayor

https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/election/poll-dunbar-bronson-well-ahead-of-the-pack-in-anchorage-mayoral-race/article_51140a88-8059-11eb-9994-23b5b976ad69.html

Forrest Dunbar 22%
Dave Brinson 20%
Bill Falsey 8%
Mike Robbins 8%
Bill Evans 5%
George Martinez 2%
Other 2%
Not sure 33%

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1392599240397008900?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/429534-darden-rice-ken-welch-neck-and-neck-in-new-poll-but-st-pete-mayoral-race-still-wide-open/

St Petersburg, FL. mayor
St. Pete Polls
May 13
527 likely voters
MoE: 4.3
Changes with March 2

Unsure 40% (-2)
Darden Rice 16% (+1)
Ken Welch 16% (+1)
Wengay Newton 12% (-2)
Levinson 5% (+2)
Paul Congemi 4% (-1)
Michael Ingram 3% (n/c)
Vincent Nowicki 3% (+1)
Marcile Powers 2% (n/c)

Rice vs Welch
Unsure 45% (-1)
Welch 31% (n/c)
Rice 24% (+1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL medicaid expansion polls:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article248966779.html

The Tyson Group/Florida Voices for Health (in favour of expansion)

Statewide, 600 registered voters
MoE: 4%
76% for
13% against

Miami-Dade county, 100 Republican primary voters
MoE: 9%
69% for
25% against

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/421919-poll-shows-strong-support-among-floridians-for-medicaid-expansion/

PPP/Protect Our Care Florida (for the expansion)

Regarding the referendum:
April 5-6
634 voters
MoE: 3.9%

Favour: 54%
"Firm opposition": 29%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cleveland mayor poll

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/Cleveland%20resident%20survey%20report_final.pdf

Baldwin Wallace Unviersity
March 15-April 22
421 adults
MoE: 5%

Unsure 48%
Dennis Kucinich 18%
Basheer Jones 13%
Zach Reed 9%
Sandra Williams 7%
Kevin Kelley 6%
Blaine Griffin 5%
Justin Bibb 5%
Dick Knoth 2%
Ross DiBello 1%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cleveland mayor poll

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/Cleveland%20resident%20survey%20report_final.pdf

Baldwin Wallace Unviersity
March 15-April 22
421 adults
MoE: 5%

Unsure 48%
Dennis Kucinich 18%
Basheer Jones 13%
Zach Reed 9%
Sandra Williams 7%
Kevin Kelley 6%
Blaine Griffin 5%
Justin Bibb 5%
Dick Knoth 2%
Ross DiBello 1%

Yikes! 

For those unaware, Kucinich got his start running as a very Trumpy, George Wallace-style race-baiter only to undergo several rebranding throughout his political career.  Ultimately, he was such a disaster as Mayor that Cleveland has never truly recovered, he almost got recalled, and finally managed to lose the GE by double-digits to a Republican (one George Voinovich) when he ran for re-election. 

He only had his comeback in the House b/c he beat a scandal-tarnished incumbent.  In the House, he was an attention-seeking, do-nothing embarrassment who increasingly underperformed as his career went on.  After losing his primary, he promptly became a #FoxNewsDemocrat.  IIRC, there was some questionable stuff with who was bankrolling his gubernatorial campaign, but I could easily be misremembering.

This man would be a terrible choice for Mayor and I worry there aren’t enough folks left who remember what a dumpster fire he was as Mayor to keep him from winning just on name recognition in a badly divided field.  Plus, a lot of younger activists probably only know about him from his quixotic anti-Iraq War 2004 Presidential campaign where he arguably came off as a harmless goofball (he’d have probably been a meme candidate if it had happened today). 

Kucinich is a dangerously incompetent man with no genuine ideological convictions and one whose extreme narcissism led him to prioritize sycophancy over ability when making hiring decisions as Mayor (very much the type to fire public servants for doing “too good a job” due to jealousy that anyone was getting more publicity than he was).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For the election just gone:

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1382452912685682689

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Detroit City Council primary (for both of the two seats up for election this year), August 3

https://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/27403/coleman_a_young_ii_leads_in_poll_for_detroit_city_council_at-large_seat

Target Insyght/Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus
Released February 22
400 "active" Detroit voters
MoE: 4%

Undecided 26%
Coleman A. Young II 25%
Andre Spivey 18%
Janee Ayers 13%
Art Blackwell 8%
LaTanya Garrett 7%
Nicole Small 4%

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Two important ballot initiatives here in Pennsylvania, which limit the Governor's power to declare an emergency and gives the legislature the power to overturn the Governor's declaration of an emergency, seem to have passed:

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

Both questions currently sit at roughly 53% yes.

Good news for people who thought there should be no mitigation efforts to stop the spread of COVID.

[Flyersfan232]

Two important ballot initiatives here in Pennsylvania, which limit the Governor's power to declare an emergency and gives the legislature the power to overturn the Governor's declaration of an emergency, seem to have passed:

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

Both questions currently sit at roughly 53% yes.

Good news for people who thought there should be no mitigation efforts to stop the spread of COVID.

mails ins cant over turn it?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Two important ballot initiatives here in Pennsylvania, which limit the Governor's power to declare an emergency and gives the legislature the power to overturn the Governor's declaration of an emergency, seem to have passed:

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

Both questions currently sit at roughly 53% yes.

Good news for people who thought there should be no mitigation efforts to stop the spread of COVID.

mails ins cant over turn it?

Pretty sure mail ballots were counted first, but that might've been just Pittsburgh. WGAL is showing 73% reporting with no call, so I suppose it's possible: https://www.wgal.com/article/pennsylvania-primary-results-may-18-2021-ballot-questions/36474609?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

But I'm not sure where the outstanding votes are.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jacksonville, FL 2023 mayoral election (primary) poll:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/

University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab
May 11-16
1263 registered voters

Donna Deegan (D) 19%
Matt Carlucci (R) 18%
Alvin Brown (D) 14%
Daniel Davis (R) 6%
Joyce Morgan (D) 5%
Al Ferraro (R) 3%
LeAnna Cumber (R) 3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/rochester-mayor-race-spouse-arrest-may-help-incumbent-mayor

Mayor of Rochester, NY - Democratic primary
Emerson/WROC-TV
May 21-22
649 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%

Malik Evans 49%
Lovely Warren 39% (inc.)
Undecided 12

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Poll of Maine's 2021 CMP corridor referendum

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5190e622-34a4-49c2-8e3c-b8145a7c644d

Our Power Maine is a group running a consumer-owned electric utility. They seem to oppose the corridor and support the referendum against it.

May 13-19
514 registered voters
MoE: 5.3%

The CMP hydropower corridor has attracted a mixed opposition from environmentalists concerned about local wildlife (and the fact that it's 'just' a corridor) to old-fashioned NIMBYs and pro-fossil fuel types.

Support ballot measure banning construction of the corridor:

Support +15
Support 48%
Oppose 33%
Not sure 19%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mayor of Rochester, NY - Democratic primary: Evans +13

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ad76d93b-d55f-4d8e-a5fb-7c9b041f95ec

SurveyUSA/WHEC-TV Rochester
June 1-8
412 likely voters
MoE: 7.6%

Malik Evans 48%
Lovely Warren 35% (inc.)
Undecided 17%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mirsnews.com/pdfs/poll_cross_tabs/1622121610.pdf

Detroit 2021 nonpartisan primary
Target Insyght/MIRS News
400 voters
MoE: 5%

Mayor
Mike Duggan (inc.) 64
Anthony Adams 15
Tom Barrow 2
Jasahn Larsosa 2
Other 2
Myya Jones 1
Undecided 15

City Clerk
Janice Winfrey (inc.) 46
Michael Ri'chard 12
Beverly Kindle-Walker 10
Denzel McCampbell 1
Undecided or Unsure 31

Council Member at-Large (two seats)
Coleman Young 36
Janee' Ayers 21 (inc.)
Mary Waters 12
Nicole Small 4
Undecided or Unsure 27