2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread
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Author Topic: 2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 57316 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #200 on: October 26, 2020, 06:07:06 AM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 06:13:37 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Changes with September 9-15

CA - UC Berkeley
Oct 16-21, 5352 LV

Prop 15: Property tax measure

Support 49% (n/c)
Oppose 42% (+8)
Undecided 9% (-8)

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California

Oppose 49% (+8)
Support 38% (+5)
Undecided 13% (-13)

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Oppose 48% (+11)
Support 37% (+n/c)
Undecided 15% (-11)

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 46% (+7)
Oppose 42% (+6)
Undecided 12% (-13)

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-26/berkeley-poll-california-prop-22-15-races-tighten-november-2020-election


Prop. 21 is the rent control measure, not the zoning laws one.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #201 on: October 26, 2020, 07:26:58 AM »

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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #202 on: October 26, 2020, 08:17:31 AM »

San Juan Mayor poll:

https://www.puertorico-herald.org/issues2/2020/vol18n06/Mid%20Oct%202020%20Tracking%20%20-%20Final%20Topline.pdf

October 13-15
258 registered voters

Romero (PNP) 37%
Lopez Leon (PPD) 26%
Natal (MVC) 10%
Gonzalez Costa (PIP) 2%
Someone else 2%
Rosario (PD) 1%
Not sure/refused 23%
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #203 on: October 26, 2020, 08:27:58 AM »

Miami-Dade Mayor - SEA Research (Daniella Levine Cava internal)
Oct 20-22, 402 LV, MoE: 5.3%

Levine Cava 45%
Bovo 30%
Undecided 25%

Levine Cava fav: +16
Bovo fav: “even”

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/377192-survey-levine-cava-comfortable-lead
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #204 on: October 26, 2020, 09:26:52 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 09:45:31 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

One of Washington's ballot measures:

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2020/10/voters-likely-to-sustain-states-new-sex-ed-law-by-approving-referendum-90-npi-poll-finds.html

October 14-15
610 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Requiring public schools to teach sex ed. including affirmative consent:

Support 67%
Oppose 22%
Not sure 11%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #205 on: October 26, 2020, 02:21:52 PM »

UMass Amherst polls of the ballot measures:

https://polsci.umass.edu/sites/default/files/GeneralElectionToplines.pdf

October 14-21
713 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for 725 registered voters

"Require that motor vehicle owners and independent repair facilities be provided with expanded access to mechanical data related to vehicle maintenance and repair."

Yes 75%
No 15%
Not sure 11%

RCV

Yes 48%
No 43%
Not sure 9%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #206 on: October 26, 2020, 02:23:05 PM »

Ipsos/Spectrum news poll of the RCV measure in MA:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_massachusetts_topline_102120_0.pdf

October 7-15
1001 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Support 45%
Oppose 34%
Don't know 21%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #207 on: October 26, 2020, 02:30:24 PM »

Ipsos/Spectrum News poll of Florida:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_florida_topline_102120_1.pdf

October 7-15
1800 adults
MoE: 2.6%

$15 Minimum wage
Agree 70%
Disagree 21%
Don't know 9%


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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #208 on: October 26, 2020, 05:46:26 PM »

Since there was a lot of talk about Texas today, George P. Bush is apparently considering a primary challenger Ken Paxton in 2022:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/26/george-p-bush-texas-attorney-general/?utm_campaign=trib-social-buttons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

He'd be a far stronger candidate and would be in a better position to run for Governor.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #209 on: October 27, 2020, 09:00:09 AM »

Florida Atlantic University poll of initiatives:

https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2020/biden-holds-florida-edge.php

October 24-25
937 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%
Margins calculated pre-rounding

Minimum wage: Support +32%
Support 62%
Oppose 30%
Unsure 8%

California-style primaries: Support +30%
Support 58%
No 29%
Unsure 13%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #210 on: October 27, 2020, 09:16:29 AM »

Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of Mississippi:

October 23-26
507 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Replace the requirement that a candidate for governor or state office receive the highest number of votes in a majority of the state's 122 House districts with a runoff system (if no candidate gets 50% of the vote statewide, the election goes to a runoff)
Yes 54%
No 25%
Unsure 21%

New state flag adoption referendum
Yes 61%
No 31%
Unsure 8%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #211 on: October 27, 2020, 05:55:55 PM »

Patinkin Research Strategies polled Arizona's Prop. 208 to provide more education funding with a tax on the highest earners:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1g6Ib0jZws3rW63PNt0BBr7bOkK9brpZQ/view

October 1-3
604 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%

Yes 55%
No 37%
Undecided 9%

October 21-24
729 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Yes 55% (n/c)
No 40% (+3)
Undecided 5% (-4)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #212 on: October 27, 2020, 09:09:20 PM »

San Diego Democrat v.s. Democrat mayoral poll from FM3 Research for the Voice of San Diego:

https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/politics/voice-poll-reveals-tight-mayoral-race-messy-post-gop-future-for-dems/

October 8-22
580 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Gloria 36%
Bry 32%
Don't know/no answer 32%

San Diego County Supervisor District 3 election (same pollster):
https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/320-919-XTAB-SUP-3-San-Diego-Fall-2020-Issues-Survey-Updated.pdf

October 8-22
430 likely voters
MoE: 4.8%

Lawson-Remer (D) 42%
Gaspar (R-inc/) 31%
Don't know/no answer 27%
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #213 on: October 28, 2020, 04:58:51 AM »

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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #214 on: October 28, 2020, 04:59:41 AM »



Changes with September 9-21:

Yes 54% (+6)
No 24% (-4)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #215 on: October 28, 2020, 07:08:27 AM »



Changes with September 9-21:

Yes 54% (+6)
No 24% (-4)

Fuller release: https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2020-10-28.html

October 15-27
908 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%

Undecided 22% (-2) (they group in refused with this)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #216 on: October 28, 2020, 09:41:46 AM »

Ipsos/Spectrum news poll of the vehicle regulation measure in MA (I missed this one the first time around):

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_massachusetts_topline_102120_0.pdf

The initiative would require all cars manufactured in 2022 or after to have mechanical data transmitted directly to the manufacturer. This data would be available on a public platform to both owners and independent repair facilities.

October 7-15
1001 adults
MoE: 3.5%

Support 58%
Oppose 22%
Don't know 20%
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lfromnj
Atlas Politician
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« Reply #217 on: October 28, 2020, 10:13:31 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 10:20:15 AM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

Im stil wondering the relative county map, #Populist Purple heart counties like Dickenson might  actually be the most pro initative as the most D counties have the most organized resistance while most Republican voters are a bit skeptical of stuff like this .In utah Carbon county voted for the redistricting amendment.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #218 on: October 28, 2020, 11:18:02 AM »

University of Arkansas initiative polls:

https://news.uark.edu/articles/55124/arkansas-poll-finds-more-than-60-percent-support-for-trump-cotton

October 9-21
405 very likely voters
MoE: 4.8% for very likely voters
"Don't know"/"refused" respondents excluded.

Issue 1 - continue 0.5% sales tax spend on roads and highways set to expire in 2023
Favour 62%
Oppose 38%

Issue 2 - tighten term limits for state legislators
Favour 60%
Oppose 40%

Issue 3 - make it harder to pass ballot measures
Oppose 59%
Favour 41%
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #219 on: October 28, 2020, 02:31:44 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 02:38:01 PM by VARepublican »

Maricopa County, AZ - Justice Collaborative Institute
Oct. 22-25, ? LV, MoE: 3.9%

County Attorney:
Gunnigle (D) 38%
Adel (R-inc) 32%
Undecided 30%

Sheriff:
Penzone (D-inc) 47%
Sheridan (R) 33%
Undecided 20%

https://tjcinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/From-President-and-Senate-to-County-Attorney-and-Sheriff-Democrats-Lead-Up-and-Down-the-Ballot-in-Arizona-1.pdf
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #220 on: October 28, 2020, 02:40:41 PM »

Manatee County, FL Commission District 1 - St. Pete Polls
Oct. 26, 344 LV, MoE: 5.3%

Satcher (R) 58%
Brown (D) 35%
Undecided 8%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/378172-poll-shows-james-satcher-coasting-into-manatee-commission-seat
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #221 on: October 28, 2020, 03:22:30 PM »

City of San Diego, CA - FM3 Research/Voice of San Diego
Oct. 8-22, 580 LV, MoE: 4.1%

Mayor
Gloria 36%
Bry 32%
Don’t know 32%

County Supervisorial District 3
Lawson-Remer 43%
Gaspar 32%
Don’t know 26%

https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/320-919-WT-CITY-San-Diego-Fall-2020-Issues-Survey.pdf

That’s been posted upthread.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #222 on: October 28, 2020, 05:05:52 PM »

MSU Billings polled Montana ballot initiatives:

https://www.msubillings.edu/class/nams/polls/2020-mountain-states-poll-report.pdf
Oct. 19-24, 546 LV, MoE: 4.2

I-90 - legalise recreational marijuana
Yes 54%
No 38%
Undecided 7%

LR-130 - remove the authority of cities and counties to regulate firearms, including concealed carry laws

No 52%
Yes (to removing the authority) 36%
Undecided 12%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #223 on: October 29, 2020, 11:12:58 AM »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14k1Rtcxamdn-4xUFAPpIcTAzAaRHala0wAAlnEUJy5E/edit#gid=0

NJ Rutgers-Eagleton poll:

October 19-24
MoE: 4%

Making peacetime veterans able to receive a property tax deduction already available to wartime veterans

864 likely voters
For 78%
Against 16%
Don't know 6%

Delaying the state legislative redistricting process and use of new districts if census data is received after February

858 likely voters
For 46%
Against 32%
Don't know 22%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #224 on: October 29, 2020, 12:17:31 PM »

Monmouth poll of FL: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_102920.pdf/

October 24-28
509 registered voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 10-13

$15 minimum wage
For 63% (-4)
Against 32% (+6)
Will not vote on this 2% (+1)
Don't know 4% (-2)

California-style primaries
For 53% (-10)
Against 30% (+9)
Will not vote on this 2% (+1)
Don't know 15% (n/c)

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