2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Civiqs/DailyKos:
October 11-14

CO
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_CO_banner_book_2020_10_mk0d15.pdf

1013 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%

Join National Popular Vote compact amendment
Yes 47%
No 45%
Unsure 8%

Ban abortions after 22 weeks except in cases of threat to mother's life amendment
No 51%
Yes 42%
Unsure 7%

Decrease state income tax rate from 4.63% to 4.55%
Yes 51%
No 35%
Unsure 14%

VA
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_VA_banner_book_2020_10_48z9k2.pdf

1231 likely voters
MoE: 3.1%

Anti-gerrymandering initiative
Yes 48%
No 30%
Undecided 22%

[VAR]

Honolulu, HI mayoral poll
Mason-Dixon
Oct 12-14, 625 RV, MoE: 4%

Blangiardi 49%
Amemiya 36%
Undecided 15%

Mayor Caldwell COVID approval: 38/49 (-11)

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-poll-shows-commanding-lead-for-blangiardi-in-mayors-race/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Honolulu, HI mayoral poll
Mason-Dixon
Oct 12-14, 625 RV, MoE: 4%

Blangiardi 49%
Amemiya 36%
Undecided 15%

Mayor Caldwell COVID approval: 38/49 (-11)

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/10/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-poll-shows-commanding-lead-for-blangiardi-in-mayors-race/

This article also referenced a Solutions Pacific internal for Amemiya:

September 28-October 9
1212 registered voters who said they would vote

Blangiardi 37%
Amemiya 36%

[VAR]

AR (Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College)
Oct 11-13, 647 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Issue 1: “...the ballot proposal that makes permanent a current half-cent sales tax for roads and highways.“

For 59%
Against 31%
Don’t know 10%

Issue 2: “...would alter Arkansas’ term limits law by eliminating the lifetime ban after 16 years. It would allow state lawmakers to serve 12 years, wait four years, and then have the ability to serve another 12 years.“

For 48%
Against 28%
Don’t know 24%

Issue 3: “...reforms a number of processes in the ballot initiative process.“

Against 35%
For 20%
Don’t know 45%

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/10/poll-highway-funding-proposal-issue-1-poised-to-pass/

[Roll Roons]

Cook has ratings for Secretary of State Races: https://cookpolitical.com/october-update-handicapping-2020-secretary-state-elections

Safe D: VT (Condos)
Likely D: NC (Marshall), OR (Open - R held)
Lean R: WA (Wyman), MT (Open - R held)
Likely R: WV (Warner)
Safe R: MO (Ashcroft)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

YouGov/American Politics Research Lab at the University of Colorado poll:

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2020_colorado_political_climate_report_election_topline_10-19-20_.pdf

October 5-9
800 likely voters
MoE: 4.64% for likely voters

Prop 113- Join NPV Compact
Yes 49%
No 34%
Not sure 17%

Pro 115 - Abortion Restriction
No 45%
Yes 41%
Not sure 14%

Prop 118 - paid family/medical leave (only for specific persons)
Yes 65%
No 22%
Not sure 13%

Amendment B - repeal Gallagher amendment/property tax reform
Sub-groups with different ballot language:

Group A - simple description
Yes 24%
No 23%
Not sure 53%

Group B - official ballot measure wording
Yes 44%
No 20%
Not sure 36%

[VAR]

CA (Probolsky Research)

Proposition 18: “The Constitutional Amendment to lower the voting age in California to 17 for Primary and Special Elections, if the teenagers will turn 18 by the next General Election“

No 52%
Yes 45%
Undecided/no answer 3%

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2020/10/16/california-voters-rejecting-proposition-18-which-would-lower-voting-age/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CA (Probolsky Research)

Proposition 18: Lowers the voting age in CA to 17.

No 52%
Yes 45%
Undecided/no answer 3%

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2020/10/16/california-voters-rejecting-proposition-18-which-would-lower-voting-age/

October 12-15
900 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cook County State's Attorney poll (R):

https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/2020/10/19/21523370/states-attorney-battle-foxx-republican-democrat-obrien-poll-trump-cook-county

Commissioned by the Cook County GOP
October 18
473 likely voters
MoE: 3.69%

Foxx +7% pre-rounding.

Foxx (D) 47%
O'Brien (R) 41%

Foxx won 72.06%-27.94% in 2016.

[Canis]

CA (Probolsky Research)

Proposition 18: Lowers the voting age in CA to 17.

No 52%
Yes 45%
Undecided/no answer 3%

https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2020/10/16/california-voters-rejecting-proposition-18-which-would-lower-voting-age/

That's not what prop 18 does lol it allows 17 year olds who will be 18 on the day of a general election to vote in the primary of that election

[VAR]

CA (David Binder Research)
Oct 17-19, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Proposition 16: “the ballot measure to restore affirmative action in California“

Yes 45%
No 45%
Undecided 10%

https://sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article246582798.html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Civiqs/Daily Kos:

October 17-20

FL
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_FL_banner_book_2020_10_6s25ck.pdf

863 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

Explicitly codify citizenship requirement for voting into state constitution amendment
Yes 53%
No 39%
Unsure 9%

$15 minimum wage initiative amendment
Yes 57%
No 38%
Unsure 4%

California-style primaries amendment
No 51%
Yes 36%
Unsure 13%

NV
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NV_banner_book_2020_10_r8597h.pdf

712 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Marriage amendment - amends state constitution to recognise gay marriage and also allows religious officials to refuse to solemnise a marriage
Yes 69%
No 26%
Unsure 5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oklahoma:

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f90b311788f4939f00759e5/news-9news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-inhofe-leads-broyles-by-20-points-in-us-senate-race

OK Sooner/News 9/News on 6
Oct 15-20, 5466 LV, MoE: 1.33%

State Question 805 - prevent using past non-violent felony convictions to "enhance" sentences for other non-violent felony convictions; retroactively modify sentences for individuals serving sentences enhanced in this way

Support +10% pre-rounding

Support 45%
Oppose  35%
Undecided 20%

State Question 814 - reappropriate most funds generated by tobacco settlements and currently directed to preventing smoking towards funding the state's Medicaid program (and consequently securing federal matching funds for the program)

Support +20% pre-rounding

Support 46%
Oppose 26%
Undecided 28%

[VAR]

CA (PPIC)
Oct 9-18, 1185 LV, MoE: 4.3%

Proposition 15: “It taxes commercial and industrial property based on current market value, instead of purchase price. The fiscal impact is increased property taxes on commercial properties worth more than $3 million providing $6.5 billion to $11.5 billion in new funding to local governments and schools.“

Yes 49%
No 45%
Don’t know 6%

Proposition 16: Restore affirmative action.

No 50%
Yes 37%
Don’t know 13%

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2020.pdf

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CA (PPIC)
Oct 9-18, 1185 LV, MoE: 4.3%

Proposition 15: “It taxes commercial and industrial property based on current market value, instead of purchase price. The fiscal impact is increased property taxes on commercial properties worth more than $3 million providing $6.5 billion to $11.5 billion in new funding to local governments and schools.“

Yes 49%
No 45%
Don’t know 6%

Proposition 16: Restore affirmative action.

No 50%
Yes 37%
Don’t know 13%

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2020.pdf

Changes with September 4-13

Prop 15
Yes 49% (-2)
No 45% (+5)
Don't know 6% (-3)

Prop 16
No 50% (+3)
Yes 37% (+6)
Don't know 13% (-9)

[VAR]

Leon County, FL - Institute of Nonprofit Innovation and Excellence/Sachs Media Group
Oct 4-6, 850 voters, MoE: 3.4%

Children’s Services Council ballot question

Yes 70%
No 22%
Undecided 8%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/376004-poll-finds-leon-county-voters-support-childrens-services-council

[VAR]

FL - St. Pete’s Polls
Oct 21-22, 2527 LV, MoE: 2%

This model ended up favoring Republicans by about 1% more than our statewide polls for the last several months.

Amendment 3: California-style primaries
Yes 37%
No 44%
Undecided/won’t say 19%

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October21_U5GHV.pdf

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL - St. Pete’s Polls
Oct 21-22, 2527 LV, MoE: 2%

This model ended up favoring Republicans by about 1% more than our statewide polls for the last several months.

Amendment 3: California-style primaries
Yes 37% (-9)
No 44% (+13)
Undecided/won’t say 19% (-6 from "Undecided")

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_October21_U5GHV.pdf

Changes with September 1-2 added above

[Roll Roons]

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings

Cook changed two governor's ratings, both in favor of the incumbents. NC went from Lean D to Likely, and NH from Likely R to Safe.

[VAR]

CA - David Binder Research
Oct 17-19, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

Proposition 16: Restore affirmative action in California.
Yes 45%
No 45%
Undecided 10%

https://voteyesonprop16.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/53/DBR-Prop-16-Memo-v4.pdf

[VAR]

CA - Spectrum News/Ipsos
Oct 7-15, 1400 adults, MoE: 3%

Prop 15: Property tax measure
Support 55%
Oppose 29%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California
Support 38%
Oppose 28%
Don’t know 34%

Prop 20: Expanding the list of violent crimes for which early release from prison is not an option
Support 59%
Oppose 25%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Support 43%
Oppose 36%
Don’t know 21%

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 62%
Oppose 23%
Don’t know 15%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_california_topline_102120_0.pdf

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout poll of amendment 3 (which strengthens campaign finance laws a bit but also indirectly reverses the anti-gerrymandering amendment passed in 2018):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201017_MO_Remington.pdf

October 14-15
MoE: 3%
1010 likely voters
Changes with September 20-21 poll

OPPOSE 50% (+20)
SUPPORT 28% (-16)
Undecided 22% (-4)

Edit: updated with a more recent previous poll

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

CA - Spectrum News/Ipsos
Oct 7-15, 1400 adults, MoE: 3%

Prop 15: Property tax measure
Support 55%
Oppose 29%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California
Support 38%
Oppose 28%
Don’t know 34%

Prop 20: Expanding the list of violent crimes for which early release from prison is not an option
Support 59%
Oppose 25%
Don’t know 16%

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Support 43%
Oppose 36%
Don’t know 21%

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 62%
Oppose 23%
Don’t know 15%

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/spectrum_multi-state_california_topline_102120_0.pdf

There's one more. The prop. 20 question was split into two parts, for which you've posted the first. The second is regarding charging repeat theft as a felony:

Support 61%
Oppose 24%
Don't know 15%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Missouri SD-01 poll (a bit old, but the last that seems to be available in this series at the moment):

https://moscout.com/daily-updates-1/2020/9/12/moscout-weekender-senate-1-poll-brown-winds-down-pelopidas-hallway-on-pq-wwtw-and-more

Remington Research Group/MOScout
September 9-10
648 likely voters
MoE: 3.8

Beck (D-inc.) 43%
Lenihan (R) 36%
Undecided 21%

Sifton (D) won 53.09%-46.91% in 2016.

[VAR]

CA - UC Berkeley
Oct 16-21, 5352 LV

Prop 15: Property tax measure
Support 49%
Oppose 42%
Undecided 9%

Prop 16: Restore affirmative action in California
Oppose 49%
Support 38%
Undecided 13%

Prop 21: Changing zoning laws to allow for duplexes and triplexes to be built in neighborhoods previously zoned for single-family homes
Oppose 48%
Support 37%
Undecided 15%

Prop 22: Exempt gig companies like Uber from AB 5
Support 46%
Oppose 42%
Undecided 12%

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-10-26/berkeley-poll-california-prop-22-15-races-tighten-november-2020-election