2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

San Diego polls!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=39181317-5e1c-436b-906f-1784b0f80807

SurveyUSA for KING TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune
August 28-31
517 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

MAYORAL RUNOFF
Bry 37%
Gloria 34%
Undecided 29%

CITY ATTORNEY RUNOFF
Elliott (inc.) 30%
Briggs 20%
Undecided 50%

Ballot measure questions ask if voters are certain to vote one way.

MEASURE A
General Obligation Bonds for Affordable Housing - would increase taxes on city property owners in order to issue $900 million in bonds for housing low income persons and families

Yes 36%
No 32%
Not certain 32%

MEASURE B
Charter Amendments Establishing Commission on Police Practices, which would create a new citizen board with broad powers to review actions by San Diego Police officers

Yes 55%
No 19%
Not certain 26%

MEASURE C
District-Only Elections For School Board Members, which would change San Diego Unified School District elections from being at-large to being district-by-district

Yes 39%
No 12%
Not certain 49%

MEASURE E (D passed in the primary)
Removing 30-Foot Height Limit in Midway-Pacific Highway Community Plan Area, which would remove the city's coastal 30-foot height limit for the land surrounding the sports arena

Yes 31%
No 29%
Not certain 39%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cunning use of negative partisanship by jungle primary advocates: https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1303009077199597575

[Oryxslayer]

Cunning use of negative partisanship by jungle primary advocates: https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1303009077199597575

Interestingly though both the DPLF and the FLGOP have endorsed a No vote on Amendment 3.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

TN SD-20 poll:
https://twitter.com/TheTNHoller/status/1304533234672336896
Change Research/Heidi Campbell internal (D)
August 31-September 1
531 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%

Campbell (D) 49%
Dickerson (R-inc.) 47%
Undecided 4%

Dickerson won his seat (as an incumbent) 56%-44% in 2016.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL ballot initiatives in the Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_091520.pdf/

September 10-13, 2020
428 registered voters
MoE: 4.7%

$15 Minimum Wage Amendment
"There will be a measure on the ballot that would raise the state minimum wage to $10.00 per hour next year, and increase it by $1.00 each year until it reaches $15.00 per hour. Will you vote for or against this measure?"

FOR 67%
AGAINST 26%
Will not vote on this 1%
Don't know 6%

CA primary system amendment
"Another measure on the ballot would change Florida’s primary election system for state offices such as governor and legislature. All candidates will appear on the same primary ballot and all voters will be eligible to vote regardless of party registration. The top two vote getters in the primary advance to the general election. Will you vote for or against this measure?"

FOR 63%
AGAINST 21%
Will not vote on this 1%
Don't know 15%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The August NJ DKC analytics poll had numbers released for support of legalised marijuana but published support for legalisation in the form set out by the ballot amendment elsewhere. Here it is:

https://www.bracheichler.com/insights/brach-eichler-poll-shows-new-jersey-voters-favor-a-higher-sales-tax-on-legal-marijuana/

DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler*
August 5-13
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.383%

Strongly/somewhat support 66%
Strongly/somewhat oppose 27%
Unsure 7%

*Brach Eichler is a firm specialising in cannabis law and their website suggests they support the amendment, so consider this an internal poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September22_U5GDL.pdf

St. Pete Polls
September 21-22
2906 likely voters
MoE: 1.8%
Swings calculated pre-rounding

Amendments in Florida need 60% to pass.
Minimum wage amendment
Changes with May 26-27, 2020 poll

Yes 65% (+1)
No 23% (-2)
Unsure 13% (+1)

Would you support a state Constitutional Amendment that would require that new state constitutional amendments be approved by voters in two separate elections before going into effect?
Changes with October 7-10, 2019 poll

Yes 44% (-5)
No 31%(+1)
Unsure 25% (+4)

California primary system amendment
Changes with May 26-27, 2020 poll

Yes 46% (+11)
No 35% (-9)
Unsure 19% (-2)

Edit: another poll released 4 days ago was conducted by the Florida Democratic Party for their candidate in HD60. Its MoE was greater than 4%.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/elections/2020/09/19/polls-show-tight-jenkins-toledo-race-for-tampas-district-60-state-house-seat/

Toledo (R) 42%
Jenkins (D) 36%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Christopher Newport University poll of Virginia (September 9-21, 796 likely voters, MoE: 3.9%) has polled the amendment to transfer redistricting powers from the state legislature to a commission.

FOR 48%
AGAINST 28%
UNDECIDED 24%

In spite of the state party's opposition, support is strongest within Democratic-leaning constituencies according to this poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Vote for 428, an organisation campaigning for 2020's initiative of the same name in Nebraska, have released an internal poll conducted by the Benenson Strategy Group:

https://www.votefor428.org/media/polls-show-nebraskans-support-payday-lending-reform

Conducted in August 2020
67% are in favour (before any message testing)

428 would cap the interest charged by payday lenders at 36% per annum. The average in Nebraska is 400% (!) per annum.

Edit: the Florida Chamber of Commerce also released some statewide polling on several amendments today. Floridian amendments need 60% to pass.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/371859-heres-brunch-a-pop-up-weekend-email-about-final-weeks-of-the-2020-campaign-10-4-20

Amendment 2, $15 minimum wage: 66% support
Amendment 3, California-style primaries: 61% support
Amendment 4, require two votes to approve further constitutional amendments: 61% support

The Chamber opposes the first two of these amendments and supports the third.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/UNF%20PORL%20Statewide%20October%20Press%20Release.pdf

October 1-4
MoE: 1.8% for 3142 likely voters
Changes with February 2020 poll

The pollster puts an assessment of each measure before actually asking the question. They try to keep this neutral but it may bias the results as they're doing more than explaining the context/text of the amendment.

Amendment 1 - put explicit citizenship requirement to vote in state constitution
3091 likely voters

Yes 78%
No 18%
Don't know/refusal 2%

Amendment 2 - minimum wage
3055 likely voters

Yes 60%
No 37%
Don't know/refusal 3%

Amendment 3 - California-style primaries
2994 likely voters

Yes 58% (fails beneath 60% of the vote)
No 36%
Don't know/refusal 6%

Amendment 4 - require initiatives to be approved twice
2943 likely voters

No 52%
Yes 41%
Don't know/refusal 7%

Amendment 5 - effectively extends the period of time in which movers can transfer certain property tax relief
2928 likely voters

Yes 67%
No 26%
Don't know/refusal 7%

Amendment 6 - allows homestead property discounts for veterans to be transferred to their spouses upon death
2913 likely voters

Yes 88%
No 8%
Don't know/refusal 4%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Maryland has a ballot initiative to legalise sports gambling at licensed facilities (both physical and online):

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2020/10/07/forget-the-2020-election-here-are-some-early-poll-results-on-2022/

Change Research/Our Voice Maryland
September 29 - October 2
650 voters
MoE: 4.55%

Yes 52%
No 29%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

UNF has a Duval County poll up:

https://www.unf.edu/uploadedFiles/aa/coas/porl/2020JaxSpeaksOct.pdf

October 1-4
545 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%
Changes with June, 2020 poll

School District of Duval County, Florida Surtax Referendum
Shall the Duval County School Board be authorized to levy a 15-year half-cent sales surtax, with expenditures based upon the Surtax Capital Outlay Plan, and monitored by an independent citizens committee? [For education funding]

FOR 69% (n/c)
AGAINST 28% (-4)
Don't know/refusal 3% (+3 from being at 0% with no voters)

JEA Referendum
Shall the Jacksonville Charter be amended to create a new Section 4.03 and amend Section 21.03 which will (1) grant to City Council the executive power to appoint and remove four members of the JEA Board and (2) amend the qualifications of Board members? [JEA is Florida's largest electric/water/sewage public utility]

YES 76%
NO 20%
Don't know/refusal 4%

And SUSA and the San Diego Union-Tribune have another for San Diego:

October 1-5
547 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%
Changes with August 28-31 poll

MAYORAL RUNOFF
Gloria 39% (+5)
Bry 38% (+1)
Undecided 24% (-5)

CITY ATTORNEY RUNOFF
Elliott 28% (-2)
Briggs 22% (+2)
Undecided 50% (n/c)

Measure A
Yes 38% (+2)
No 33% (+1)
Not certain 29% (-3)

Measure B
Yes 53% (-2)
No 21% (+2)
Not certain 27% (+1)

Measure C
Yes 39% (n/c)
No 14% (+2)
Not certain 47% (-2)

Measure E
Yes 37% (+6)
No 25% (-4)
Not certain 38% (-1)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

HighGround Inc. have released their Prop. 208 question (education funding by taxing high earners) from the recent AZ poll:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7223141-HG-Poll-Prop-208-Final.html

September 28 - October 5
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Yes 56%
No 38%
Don't know/refused 6%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/local-politics/election-2020-9news-colorado-politics-poll-biden-hickenlooper-gardner-trump-prop-115-ballot/73-9b4f6099-72df-4836-8d62-d81eceb981ec

SUSA/9 News/Colorado Politics
October 1-6
1021 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Amendment B - repeal the Gallagher Amendment - keeps a constant ratio between the revenue generated by residential and non-residential property taxes, de facto driving down residential property taxes because of other state laws)
Yes 22%
No 17%
Uncertain 61%

Prop 113 - add Colorado to the NPV compact
Yes 39%
No 38%
Uncertain 23%

Prop 115 - prohibit abortions after 22 weeks unless the woman's life is in danger
No 45%
Yes 42%
Uncertain 13%

Prop 118 - paid family and medical leave insurance programs (12 weeks off for family or medical reasons paid by payroll tax, half by employees and half by employers)
Yes 57%
No 21%
Uncertain 22%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Data Orbital polled AZ's prop 208 (education funding):

https://www.thecentersquare.com/arizona/new-poll-shows-decreasing-support-for-arizona-tax-increase-initiative/article_719354fa-08c5-11eb-98a6-b79bfa954a8a.html

October 3-5
550 likely voters
MoE: 4.18%
Margin calculated pre-rounding

With leaners, YES leads by 14%.

YES 51%
NO 37%
Undecided 12%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

She's not referencing the PPP poll of her district (which came out after this) but probably as an internal: https://twitter.com/Nancy4Ohio/status/1303683330131587080

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/BexarFacts/status/1315303677620563968

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

AZ HD23, a Trump +13% district, has been polled. It's a multi-member district so totals will sum to >100% and the top two will win.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b08a9b125bf021332fb8e19/t/5f7f9adcbf106f48e5765a8a/1602198236678/AZ+LD+23+Memo+Oct+20.pdf

October 6-7
500 voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with unreleased September 1-2 poll

Will not vote for more than one candidate 46%
John Kavanagh (Rinc.) 42% (-1)
Eric Kurland (D) 38% (-1)
Joseph Chaplik (R) 32% (-5)
Undecided on second choice 22%

Kavanagh (R) won 36.6% and Lawrence (R) won 33.2% of total votes in 2018, taking both seats. Kurland (D) placed 3rd in that election, at 30.2%.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Emerson polled the minimum wage initiative in Florida. It needs 60% to pass.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/florida-2020-biden-holds-slight-edge-three-weeks-out

October 10-12
690 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

For 52%
Against 31%
Unsure 11%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

SurveyUSA polled Referendum 90 for KING-TV in Washington:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=544b4e4e-7820-4e83-b51a-41423dda3b8a

October 8-12
591 likely voters
MoE: 5.2%

Approve 52%
Reject 34%
Undecided 14%

It would ensure that public schools provide sexual health education to all students.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Two polls of the mayoral race in Richmond, VA (the incumbent won 35.64%-33.56% in 2016):

https://thevirginiastar.com/2020/10/05/new-poll-suggests-richmond-mayors-race-is-between-stoney-and-gray/

ARG/"anonymous party"
September 23-27
540 registered voters
MoE: 4.5%
Changes with July 16-21 independent poll

Stoney (D-inc.) 37% (-1)
Gray (D) 33% (+2)
Rodgers (D) 13% (-3)
Griffin (I) 11% (n/c)
McLean (D) 3%
Undecided 2%

https://thevirginiastar.com/2020/10/13/latest-poll-gray-drops-to-16-percent-stoney-stays-stable/

Christopher Newport University

Stoney (D-inc.) 36%
Gray (D) 16%
Rodgers (D) 15%
Griffin (I) 3%
McLean (D) 1%
Undecided 30%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Missouri ballot initiatives:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k0pvsrbbzcy8p6/slu-poll-october2020-toplineresults.pdf?dl=0

YouGov/SLU
September 24 - October 7
931 likely voters
MoE: 3.9%

Amendment 1: extend the two-term limit for Governor and Treasurer to LTGOV, SoS, Auditor and AG.

For 51%
Against 29%
Not sure 20%

Amendment 3: tighten campaign contribution/gifts and lobbyist laws in exchange for reversing 2018's anti-gerrymandering amendment (the actual text is written a bit deceptively so voters are still told the commission will be 'nonpartisan' although control will be returned to the Governor)

Against 43%
For 35%
Not sure 23%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

TX HD-138 poll:

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/787e36cb680a02a01877c130b9f42f63/TX%20HD%20138%20Memo%20Oct%2020.pdf

PPP/THDCC (D)
October 6-7
451 voters
MoE: 4.6%

With leaners (est.):
Bacy (D) 54%
Hull (R) 45%
Undecided 1%

Generic D 52%
Generic R 43%

Bohac (R) won 50.03%-49.93% in 2018.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some mayoral polls:

Baltimore
https://www.wypr.org/post/nearly-two-thirds-voters-favor-scott-baltimore-mayor-finds-poll-commissioned-his-campaign

GSG/Brandon Scott (D) internal
september 4-6
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Scott (D) 65%
Wallace (I) 14%
Wright (R) 6%
Undecided/refused 16%

Honolulu
https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/10/civil-beat-hnn-poll-blangiardi-holds-commanding-lead-in-mayors-race/

Civil Beat/Hawaii News Now
October 2-7
699 registered voters
MoE: 3.7%

Blangiardi 48%
Amemiya 28%
Undecided 19%
Do not prefer either candidate 5%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

San Juan, PR Mayoral poll:

https://www.elvocero.com/politica/con-la-preferencia-del-voto-miguel-romero/article_8bcd335e-0d07-11eb-9eab-bb4718180b7e.html

Gaither International/El Vocero
October 1-7
500 voters
MoE: 4%

Miguel Romero (PNP) 38%
Manuel Natal (MVC) 18%
Rossana Lopez (PPD) 17%
Adrian Gonzalez (PIP) 2%
Nelson Rosario (PD) 1%
Not sure 24%

Carmen Yulin Cruz (PPD-D) won the 2016 race, 52.54%-43.77% over the PNP candidate.