Hillary Wins

[Progressive Pessimist]

Awesome writing, it's like it's real. Also, what's with the sudden spike of Hillary's approval and drop in her disapprovals? It can't just be for the SOTU??

Media coverage?

[Sir Mohamed]

Excellent TL! Hope Roy Moore gets the nomination and then goes down in flames on election day.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Loving this TL. Also loving the fact that its one of the few to not portray a Hillary presidency as being on par with Trump's.

I know! Hillary’s presidency here is a lot like it would be in real life. Terrible. Most timelines don’t get that.

[MycroftCZ]

Excellent TL! Hope Roy Moore gets the nomination and then goes down in flames on election day.

Loving this TL. Also loving the fact that its one of the few to not portray a Hillary presidency as being on par with Trump's.

Thanks!!

Awesome writing, it's like it's real. Also, what's with the sudden spike of Hillary's approval and drop in her disapprovals? It can't just be for the SOTU??

Media coverage?

Combination of her approvals already slowly rising, good SCOTUS, media coverage and fear of Roy Moore.

[MycroftCZ]

February 1st, 2020: Cotton Wins Iowa Caucus, Shakes Up Race


Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton won the Iowa Caucuses last night by a wide margin, showing weakness in Roy Moore's campaign and shaking up the GOP race. Cotton claimed victory with 30% of the vote, a wider margin of victory than many expected. The last polls before election night had shown Cotton narrowly leading Moore but Iowa shifted toward the Senator on election day. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa Caucuses four years ago, suspended his campaign after getting a slim 3.4% of the vote, in dead last. Cruz began the race as a top-tier candidate but quickly fell as Roy Moore's candidacy took off. Cotton's campaign now looks to states such as South Carolina and Nevada to claim a second victory.

Iowa Caucuses: 99% Reporting
Cotton: 30.2%%
Moore: 21.5%
Rubio: 14.8%
Haley: 11.6%
Kasich: 7.2%
Sandoval: 5%
Martinez: 4.1%
Cruz: 3.4%


February 4th, 2020: Kasich Barnstorms New Hampshire


Ohio Governor John Kasich is all-in for New Hampshire, as he barnstorms the state before the February 10th primary. Polls show him leading but he is taking nothing for granted and needs to fend off Marco Rubio, another establishment candidate that poses a threat to Kasich's campaign. Kasich has held 30+ town halls in the last four days and is scheduled to hold 20 more before the primary. Kasich is a notoriously good retail politician and is appealing to New Hampshire voters.

February 10th, 2020: Hard Works Pays Off: Kasich Takes New Hampshire


John Kasich, after a whirlwind campaign through New Hampshire, claimed victory tonight in the Granite State. Kasich defeated 2nd place Marco Rubio and, more surprisingly, 4th place Roy Moore. Moore has not targeted New Hampshire and has stuck to a southern strategy but his bad showing here and in Iowa are signs that his lead over the GOP pack may be evaporating. Kasich came in a strong 2nd place here in 2016 and was able to build off of that in this crowded race. No candidate dropped out after this contest, even last place finisher Susana Martinez, who has said she will stay in until Super Tuesday. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval will not drop out until his home state votes in a couple of weeks.

New Hampshire Primary: 98% Precincts Reporting
Kasich: 26.7%
Rubio: 17.8%
Haley: 15.9%
Moore: 11.4%
Cotton: 10.8%
Sandoval: 6.5%
Martinez: 5.8%

February 15th, 2020: Al Franken Charged with Sexual Assault


Minnesota Senator Al Franken has been accused of sexual misconduct by model Leeann Tweeden and several other women. Franken has denied the accusations and has refused to resign so far. The women claim that Franken touched them inappropriately and Tweeden has photos to back up her story. Democrats are calling for Franken's resignation, such as Senators Kirsten Gillibrand(NY) and Katie McGinty(PA). Franken was considered a rising star in the Democratic party and was even considered for Education Secretary under President Clinton. The Minnesota Senator is up for reelection this year and this could derail him from seeking a third term in the Senate.

Clinton Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 49%
Approve: 49%

GOP Polls:
Moore: 15%
Kasich: 13%
Cotton: 13%
Haley: 10%
Rubio: 9%
Sandoval: 6%
Martinez: 3%

[Vespucci]

This just looks like 2016 all over again. Trump=Moore, Cruz=Cotton, Santorum=Cruz.

[DevinM626]

Oh God not Cotton.

(But again, great writing).

[America Needs R'hllor]

This just looks like 2016 all over again. Trump=Moore, Cruz=Cotton, Santorum=Cruz.

But then again, Kasich won NH, so who knows. Sandoval is very popular in his state so I guess he could win there, and Haley in South Carolina... Yep, this primary could turn messy.

[Jaguar4life]

Please No Moore

[MycroftCZ]

February 21st, 2020: Haley Takes South Carolina


Nikki Haley took her home state of South Carolina tonight, blowing her GOP competition out of the water. Haley was the popular 2-term Governor of the state and has been relying on this state to her give momentum in the race. Haley claimed in her victory speech that she is the only candidate that can beat President Clinton and Donald Trump in November. Frontrunner Roy Moore, who came in a distant second, is fighting to keep his lead nationally and in key states that he must win the have a path to the nomination in Charlotte.

South Carolina Primary: 100% Reporting
Haley: 38.4%
Moore: 18.7%
Cotton: 14.8%
Rubio: 10%
Kasich: 8.8%
Sandoval: 7.9%
Martinez: 1.4%

February 26th, 2020: Trump Endorses Moore for GOP Nomination


Independent Presidential candidate Donald Trump announced that he supports Roy Moore to win the Republican nomination in 2020. "I'd love to run against Moore. I love the guy, believe me. Of course, I'd beat him but he's a nice guy, folks." Trump said that Moore advances the "MAGA agenda" and that, "Roy could be VP if he wants... We'll see". Trump is vying to get to 15% in the polls, the minimum requirement for getting into the Presidential Debates. The average of polls shows Trump with 14% and rising. The Trump campaign announced that Mr Trump will funnel $10 million into his campaign next month, making a strong push to get into those all-important debates.

March 1st, 2020: Sandoval Wins Nevada Narrowly


Former Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval narrowly won his home state last night as New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez came within 2% points of beating him. Sandoval was hoping for a big win in his home state but did not get the result he wanted. The former Governor did not drop out but said the result was "disappointing". Martinez, on the other hand, touted momentum going into Super Tuesday. Roy Moore, the supposed frontrunner, has not won a single state yet and reports say that his campaign is struggling and losing steam. Now the race goes national, with Super Tuesday looming for many campaigns as a make-or-break moment.

Nevada Caucus: 99% Reporting
Sandoval: 28.5%
Martinez: 26.7%
Moore: 17.3%
 Haley: 9.2%
Rubio: 7.1%
Cotton: 6.6%
Kasich: 4.5%

March 4th, 2020: Franken Will Not Seek Reelection


Al Franken, who has been accused of sexual misconduct, will not seek re-election in November, opening up another Senate race in Minnesota. Franken has bucked calls for his resignation and will stay a Senator until his term ends early next year. Many woman Senate colleagues said they respect the move to stay and will continue to work with Franken on big issues on Capitol Hill. Potential candidates for Franken's seat include former Senator Norm Coleman, a Republican, or Governor Mark Dayton, a former Senator and Governor, who is a Democrat.

Clinton Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 51%
Approve: 46%

GOP Polls:
Moore: 14%
Kasich: 14%
Cotton: 14%
Haley: 13%
Rubio: 10%
Martinez: 4%
Sandoval: 2%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow those polls. Also just a little detail- Dayton is no longer Governor, since his last term ended in 2018. Also, if I was an American voter in this TL, and some polling company called me, I'd say I'm voting for Trump just to get him into the debates

[OSR stands with Israel]

Since this is going to go to a contested convention this is what should happen.


Kasich should be the presidential nominee
Haley should be the Vice Presidential Nominee
Sandoval should be offered to be Kasich's Attorney General

[MycroftCZ]

Wow those polls. Also just a little detail- Dayton is no longer Governor, since his last term ended in 2018. Also, if I was an American voter in this TL, and some polling company called me, I'd say I'm voting for Trump just to get him into the debates

Fixed! Thanks! A lot more with Trump coming up

[MycroftCZ]

March 10th, 2020: Moore, Kasich Pick Up Major Wins on Super Tuesday


Super Tuesday solidified the race for the Republican nomination, with Roy Moore winning his home state of Alabama, as well as Tennessee, Texas and Oklahoma. Ohio Governor John Kasich won Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Alaska and Virginia. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won Georgia narrowly over Moore, a surprise to the Haley campaign who thought this would be a bad night for her. Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton won his home state and Oklahoma, underperforming in Tennessee and Texas. Former New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez remained defiant tonight, refusing to drop out after coming in dead last in a majority of states. Martinez believes that she can in her home state and surrounding states to remain a viable candidate.

Alabama: 99% Reporting
Moore: 45.8%
Cotton: 23.1%
Haley: 12.3%
Rubio: 6.9%
Kasich: 4%
Sandoval: 3.4%
Martinez: 1.8%

Tennessee: 100% Reporting
Moore: 39.4%
Cotton: 31.8%
Haley: 8.7%
Rubio: 7.3%
Kasich: 6.5%
Martinez: 4.1%
Sandoval: 3%

Texas: 98% Reporting
Moore: 37.9%
Cotton: 18.5%
Kasich: 13.2%
Rubio: 10.8%
Haley: 9.9%
Sandoval: 3.8%
Martinez: 2.1%

Wyoming: 99% Reporting
Moore: 52.8%
Cotton: 17%
Haley: 8.1%
Rubio: 5.9%
Sandoval: 5.2%
Kasich: 3.7%
Martinez: 0.8%

Vermont: 97% Reporting
Kasich: 42.1%
Rubio: 14.9%
Haley: 11.4%
Cotton: 9.3%
Moore: 7.8%
Martinez: 6.8%
Sandoval: 5.1%

Massachusetts: 99% Reporting
Kasich: 34.7%
Rubio: 19%
Haley: 14.8%
Cotton: 11.1%
Moore: 8.9%
Martinez: 4.5%
Sandoval: 3.7%

Minnesota: 100% Reporting
Kasich: 38.1%
Rubio: 34.5%
Haley: 10.9%
Moore: 9.8%
Cotton: 5.7%
Sandoval: 1.1%
Martinez: 0%

Alaska: 88% Reporting
Kasich: 44.8%
Haley: 21.1%
Moore: 15.6%
Cotton: 9.5%
Rubio: 8.2%
Sandoval: 0.8%
Martinez: 0%

Virginia: 100% Reporting
Kasich: 36.7%
Rubio: 26.5%
Moore: 11.9%
Haley: 10.4%
Cotton: 8.3%
Martinez: 3.1%
Sandoval: 2.2%

Arkansas: 99% Reporting
Cotton: 54.9%
Moore: 21%
Haley: 10.1%
Rubio: 8.8%
Kasich: 2.4%
Sandoval: 2.1%
Martinez: 0.7%

Oklahoma: 98% Reporting
Cotton: 33.5%
Moore: 31.7%
Rubio: 13.9%
Haley: 9.4%
Kasich: 6.8%
Martinez: 3.2%
Sandoval: 1.8%

Georgia: 99% Reporting
Haley: 35.8%
Moore: 35.1%
Cotton: 18.1%
Rubio: 7.8%
Kasich: 1.8%
Sandoval: 1.2%
Martinez: 0%

March 11th, 2020: "No path forward" for Rubio As He Exits the Race


Florida Senator Marco Rubio is leaving the Republican race for President, after failing to win a single state on Super Tuesday. Rubio did not address supporters last night and instead flew home to Florida to consult his family and political allies. Rubio did not endorse a candidate for the nomination, saying, "I like many of the candidates and I hope that the ones that I support win." Rubio did say that he hopes Roy Moore does not win the GOP nomination, fearing that Moore will lose to President Clinton in November. Rubio will continue to serve as Florida's Senior Senator until he is up for reelection in 2024.

Clinton Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 53%
Approve: 45%

GOP Polls:
Moore: 21%
Kasich: 19%
Haley: 13%
Cotton: 10%
Sandoval: 2%
Martinez: 1%

Delegate Count:
Moore: 4 States, 225 Delegates
Cotton: 3 States, 156 Delegates
Haley: 2 States, 120 Delegates
Kasich: 6 States, 107 Delegates
Sandoval: 1 State, 16 Delegates
Martinez: 0 States, 14 Delegates

[Bidenworth2020]

did trump jr win his race/

[MycroftCZ]

did trump jr win his race/

No... the "red wave" hit its peak in early 2017 but wasn't enough by late 2018. Replaced by Sylvia Kinard. Probably should have mentioned that he lost...  

[MycroftCZ]

March 15th, 2020: Cotton Takes Louisiana and Kansas While Moore Takes Kentucky and Kasich Wins Maine


Kentucky Senator and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will not serve as the Republican leader in the Senate after 2020, saying, "It is time for a new, younger leader to take over." The likely successor in Texas Sen. John Cornyn, but there is speculation that Wyoming's John Barrasso could run as well. This is a major shakeup in Washington and helps McConnell is his bid to be reelected this year, making him an easier candidate to commit to. Republicans are likely to lose seats this year, with Democrats leading in states like Maine, Colorado and North Carolina. Still, Democrats have long odds to taking back the Senate this election year.

Clinton Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 54%
Approve: 42%

GOP Polls:
Moore: 20%
Kasich: 16%
Cotton: 14%
Haley: 12%
Sandoval: 1%
Martinez: 0%

Delegate Count:
Moore: 5 States, 282 Delegates
Cotton: 5 States, 209 Delegates
Haley: 2 States, 137 Delegates
Kasich: 7 States, 125 Delegates
Sandoval: 1 State, 16 Delegates
Martinez: 0 States, 15 Delegates

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

my prediction: moore wins the GOP nom, but towards the end the allegations come out, making 2020 a 2016 redux between Trump and Clinton.

[OSR stands with Israel]

my prediction: moore wins the GOP nom, but towards the end the allegations come out, making 2020 a 2016 redux between Trump and Clinton.

I dont think so


Trump would not have won the nomination without him dominating the North Eastern Primaries in April(it was heading towards a contested convention till then)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

my prediction: moore wins the GOP nom, but towards the end the allegations come out, making 2020 a 2016 redux between Trump and Clinton.

I dont think so


Trump would not have won the nomination without him dominating the North Eastern Primaries in April(it was heading towards a contested convention till then)

What I mean is it's too late for the GOP to get a new candidate, so most Moore supporters go to the independent Trump bid.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

2020 will have Hillary winning over second-place Trump (I) and distant third Moore (R). The GOP will fall apart and be replaced by a new party. This is my prediction.

[emcee0]

My guess is that Roy Moore totally wins this.

[MycroftCZ]

March 24th, 2020: Moore Takes Mississippi and Idaho, Kasich Wins Michigan and Haley Wins Hawaii



Roy Moore picked up two more wins tonight, in Mississippi and Idaho. Moore leads the pack in delegates, with his closest rival, Tom Cotton, not winning a single state tonight. John Kasich won his 8th state, with a win in Michigan and Nikki Haley won Hawaii, picking up her third state win and fourth win overall (She won Puerto Rico last week over Susana Martinez). Moore is beginning to pull away in delegates and GOP leaders are increasingly concerned that he will win the nomination and lose the general to President Clinton. 

Mississippi: 98% Reporting
Moore: 50.8%
Cotton: 21.2%
Haley: 10.4%
Kasich: 8.9%
Sandoval: 3.6%
Martinez: 2.1%

Idaho: 99% Reporting
Moore: 44.3%
Cotton: 23.4%
Haley: 11.5%
Kasich: 9.9%
Sandoval: 4.9%
Martinez: 4.7%

Michigan: 100% Reporting
Kasich: 36.9%
Moore: 21.6%
Haley: 18.1%
Cotton: 12.7%
Martinez: 5%
Sandoval: 3.8%


Hawaii: 99% Reporting
Haley: 41.7%
Moore: 27.2%
Cotton: 10.6%
Kasich: 9.5%
Martinez: 4.9%
Sandoval: 3.1%

March 25th, 2020: Martinez Finally Suspends Campaign, Endorses Haley


Former New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has left the race for President, after hanging on to hope for weeks longer than many expected. Martinez only has 21 delegates and has not won a state or territory, even losing in Latino-majority Puerto Rico to Nikki Haley. Martinez was considered a formidable contender when she announced but her campaign could not gain enough traction with voters and has not topped 5% in most primary results. Martinez has defied aides and strategists and stayed in the race, but finally, they convinced her to bow out. Martinez leaves a GOP nomination fight with 4 major contenders: Governors John Kasich and Nikki Haley, Alabama Cheif Justice Roy Moore and Senator Tom Cotton. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval remains in the race, after winning his home state of Nevada but not doing well in most other states. Martinez also announced that she supports Nikki Haley for the Republican nomination and pledged her delegates to the former South Carolina Governor.

April 1st, 2020: Clinton Hopes to Expand Democratic Map


President Clinton, despite lackluster approval ratings, is hoping to expand the Democratic map in 2020. The Clinton campaign believes that they can win in states such as Arizona, Georgia or even Texas, all states that are trending bluer in recent years. Clinton lost Georgia to Donald Trump by 4 points, Texas by 7 points and Arizona by 1 point. The Clinton team is even eyeing Utah if Roy Moore is the nominee, hoping he turns off Mormon voters in that highly religious, Mormon state. Clinton held a massive rally today in Ohio, hoping to win that state that she lost in 2016. Clinton will hold a rally in Virginia later today.

Clinton Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 55%
Approve: 43%

GOP Polls:
Moore: 28%
Kasich: 22%
Haley: 19%
Cotton: 16%
Sandoval: 3%

Delegate Count:
Moore: 7 States, 346 Delegates
Cotton: 5 States, 233 Delegates
Haley: 4 States, 171 Delegates
Kasich: 8 States, 153 Delegates
Sandoval: 1 State, 21 Delegates

[wxtransit]

#NeverMoore

[MycroftCZ]

April 5th, 2020: Sandoval Drops Out


Former Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval is leaving the race for President, the last bottom-tier candidate to exit the field. Sandoval has been stuck at the bottom of the GOP nomination fight, only winning his home state of Nevada narrowly. Sandoval declined to endorse anyone for the Republican nomination saying, "I believe that Republicans will choose a nominee that will bring real conservative values to the White House." Sandoval is the popular former Governor of a state that has moved left in the last 10 years and will likely stay in politics for as long as possible in that state.  

April 8th, 2020: Rubio Endorses Haley Ahead of Florida Primary


Popular Florida Senator Marco Rubio has endorsed Nikki Haley just days before the all-important Florida primary, where polls show a tight race between Haley and Roy Moore. Haley endorsed Rubio in 2016, right before her home state of South Carolina voted. Many Republicans see Haley and Rubio as the future of the party and hope that if Haley wins the nomination, she will transform the Republican base to include more minority and women supporters. The other Florida Senator, Rick Scott, has declined to endorse any candidate and Florida Governor Adam Putman, another Republican, has endorsed Tom Cotton but Cotton is highly unlikely to win the Sunshine State.

April 10th, 2020: Haley Takes Florida and North Carolina, Kasich Wins Ohio, Illinois and Cotton Wins Missouri


Frontrunner Roy Moore was shut out tonight, as other candidates soared to victories tonight in 5 states. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won Florida, a winner-take-all state, as well as North Carolina. John Kasich won his home state of Ohio, another winner-take-all state, and Illinois. Tom Cotton won Missouri, a state that Roy Moore needed to stay relevant in a night of big wins for competitors. Haley claimed a massive victory last night, saying, "This campaign is only just getting started." Tonight was a big blow to the Moore campaign, who has been underperforming expectations in key states. Though he leads in delegates, that lead is quickly evaporating after big, winner-take-all wins for other Republican candidates.

Florida: 99% Reporting
Haley: 40.5%
Moore: 34.7%
Cotton: 13.9%
Kasich: 12.1%

North Carolina: 98% Reporting
Haley: 37.9%
Moore: 31.2%
Cotton: 20.4%
Kasich: 10.7%

Ohio: 99% Reporting
Kasich: 45.6%
Moore: 27.1%
Haley: 16.9%
Cotton: 10.4%

Illinois: 99% Reporting
Kasich: 35.8%
Moore: 32.5%
Haley: 16.1%
Cotton: 15.7%

Missouri: 100% Reporting
Cotton: 35.1%
Moore: 34.5%
Kasich: 16.6%
Haley: 13.6%

April 14th, 2020: Clinton "Old and tired", Says Aide


A new report out today quotes a White House aide describing the President as "weak" and "in poor health". It also describes this aides "shock" when Clinton announced plans to seek reelection. Apparently, the President had been talking about retirement and was saying her health would stop her from launching a full-scale campaign. President Clinton has had health rumours before, even during the 2016 election people claimed that she was dying or had a body double. Clinton famously collapsed at the 9/11 Memorial Service during the campaign and rumours that it was more than pneumonia swirled. Clinton has not been in visibly bad health but aides say she is working hard to hide her afflictions. These reports are just the account of one unnamed aide but if they are true, President Clinton could be in trouble.

Clinton Approval Rating:
Disapprove: 58%
Approve: 40%

GOP Polls:
Moore: 29%
Kasich: 25%
Haley: 24%
Cotton: 18%

Delegate Count:
Moore: 7 States, 399 Delegates
Haley: 10 States, 334 Delegates
Cotton: 6 States, 280 Delegates
Kasich: 11 States, 276 Delegates