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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Where is my Freistaat Preußen avatar?, Apocrypha)
  No Ross Perot Candidacy In 1992 (search mode)
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Author Topic: No Ross Perot Candidacy In 1992  (Read 8164 times)
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,908
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


« on: September 08, 2005, 10:18:53 pm »

I think the campaign would have started off with a moderately sized Bush lead in May (maybe 49-35 Bush or so).  Then, by the summer, Clinton wouldh have closed the gap to about 45-45.  However, by Labor Day, they would be tied, and by election day, Bush would win about 53-47 or 54-46.  I think Clinton would have stressed being the Southern candidate more.

I think it would have produced somewhat of an odd map, maybe something like this:





How does Bush win Wisconsin? It's a Dukakis state. It makes no sense for a state to vote for a weak candidate over Bush at a time when he was fairly popular, and then vote for Bush at a time when he was much less popular over a much stronger candidate.

I say Clinton still wins. Most of the support Perot got outside of the mountain west (besides protest votes) was protectionist Democrats.
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giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,908
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2005, 06:28:46 pm »


I'm keeling over from laughter right now.
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