|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 02, 2020, 11:46:38 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Coolface's deceased great-granduncle, Apocrypha)
  No Ross Perot Candidacy In 1992
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: No Ross Perot Candidacy In 1992  (Read 8186 times)
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,046


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 08, 2005, 09:49:53 pm »

Much has been made out of the role that Ross Perot played and the effect he had on the 1992 Presidential election.

What if Ross Perot had not been a candidate in 1992 and the election was a straight two way race between

President George H W Bush/VP Dan Quayle
Governor Bill Clinton/Senator Al Gore

How would this election have turned out?
Thoughts?
Maps?

 
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2005, 09:57:17 pm »

I think the campaign would have started off with a moderately sized Bush lead in May (maybe 49-35 Bush or so).  Then, by the summer, Clinton wouldh have closed the gap to about 45-45.  However, by Labor Day, they would be tied, and by election day, Bush would win about 53-47 or 54-46.  I think Clinton would have stressed being the Southern candidate more.

I think it would have produced somewhat of an odd map, maybe something like this:



Logged
ATFFL
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,756
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2005, 10:03:47 pm »

More changes than just assigning Perot's votes to Bush or Clinton.  For one thing, Bush faces far less hostile ads.  For another, Perot never gets 35%+ of the popular votes and quits the race all but endorsing Clinton.  This would eliminate the event which propelled Clinton into the lead.
Logged
Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,558
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2005, 10:11:43 pm »

Bush wins, but it's really really close.
Logged
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,939
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2005, 10:18:53 pm »

I think the campaign would have started off with a moderately sized Bush lead in May (maybe 49-35 Bush or so).  Then, by the summer, Clinton wouldh have closed the gap to about 45-45.  However, by Labor Day, they would be tied, and by election day, Bush would win about 53-47 or 54-46.  I think Clinton would have stressed being the Southern candidate more.

I think it would have produced somewhat of an odd map, maybe something like this:





How does Bush win Wisconsin? It's a Dukakis state. It makes no sense for a state to vote for a weak candidate over Bush at a time when he was fairly popular, and then vote for Bush at a time when he was much less popular over a much stronger candidate.

I say Clinton still wins. Most of the support Perot got outside of the mountain west (besides protest votes) was protectionist Democrats.
Logged
Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,558
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2005, 10:39:39 pm »


Actual:
Clinton 41.13%
Bush: 36.78%
Perot: 21.51%

Split the Perot vote 61-39:
Bush: 49.90%
Clinton: 49.51%

If you look at Perot's support in Wisconsin 1992, it was extremely evenly spread across the state, but what is really telling is that his weakest counties were Dane, Milwaukee, Douglass, and the Menominee reservation - all highly Democrat areas.  Giving Clinton 39 percent of the Perot vote is generous.

It's a Dukakis state. It makes no sense for a state to vote for a weak candidate over Bush at a time when he was fairly popular, and then vote for Bush at a time when he was much less popular over a much stronger candidate.

From the late-80s into the mid-90s, Democrat loyalty among Wisconsin rural voters fell like a stone.  You still see some of it here and there, especially in the West and Northwest, but eastern rural voters have switched to becoming Republicans.  Concerns over gun rights (hunting is huge around here) and moral issues have won out over the older, economic concerns.  Reaganomics was very bad for Wisconsin, but by 1992 most people outside the big cities had forgotten about that.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2005, 06:12:43 am »

I think the campaign would have started off with a moderately sized Bush lead in May (maybe 49-35 Bush or so).  Then, by the summer, Clinton wouldh have closed the gap to about 45-45.  However, by Labor Day, they would be tied, and by election day, Bush would win about 53-47 or 54-46.  I think Clinton would have stressed being the Southern candidate more.

I think it would have produced somewhat of an odd map, maybe something like this:





How does Bush win Wisconsin? It's a Dukakis state. It makes no sense for a state to vote for a weak candidate over Bush at a time when he was fairly popular, and then vote for Bush at a time when he was much less popular over a much stronger candidate.

I say Clinton still wins. Most of the support Perot got outside of the mountain west (besides protest votes) was protectionist Democrats.

Wisconsin barely voted for Dukakis, and that was probably only because of the farm crisis.  I think the economy would have been stressed a lot less during the campaign, and Desert Storm more.
Logged
Ronald Reagan
Spl2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 292
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2005, 04:42:25 pm »


Clinton - 52
Bush - 486
Logged
RJ
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 708
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2005, 05:26:18 pm »

Let me get this straight---no one thinks Clinton would win CA, WA, IL, NJ, MI, PA or even NV??? I think he was a lock to win OH since the economy was a big issue here then. I remember that quite well.

What were Perot's campaign points in 1992? I find it hard to believe Clinton's 5-6% PV margin and better than 2-1 in the Electoral College would be completely negated by Perot or even 1 event.
Logged
Kevin
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,401
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2005, 05:28:01 pm »

Here is what I think would have happened.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2005, 09:27:37 pm »

Clinton would have won.



Clinton/Gore: 48,858,570 (49.6%); 346 EV's
Bush/Quayle: 47,002,078 (47.7%); 192 EV's
Other: 2,639,382 (2.7%); 0 EV's
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2005, 09:34:26 pm »

Let me get this straight---no one thinks Clinton would win CA, WA, IL, NJ, MI, PA or even NV??? I think he was a lock to win OH since the economy was a big issue here then. I remember that quite well.

What were Perot's campaign points in 1992? I find it hard to believe Clinton's 5-6% PV margin and better than 2-1 in the Electoral College would be completely negated by Perot or even 1 event.

I think Clinton would have won most of those states, excepting NV.  OH might stayed Bush.  I would predict a smaller Clinton victory overall.
Logged
True Democrat
true democrat
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2005, 09:37:48 pm »


Actual:
Clinton 41.13%
Bush: 36.78%
Perot: 21.51%

Split the Perot vote 61-39:
Bush: 49.90%
Clinton: 49.51%

If you look at Perot's support in Wisconsin 1992, it was extremely evenly spread across the state, but what is really telling is that his weakest counties were Dane, Milwaukee, Douglass, and the Menominee reservation - all highly Democrat areas.  Giving Clinton 39 percent of the Perot vote is generous.

You really just can't divide up the Perot vote.  When Perot dropped out, a lot of his voters went to Clinton.  If Perot were never in the race, Bush would not have gotten those voters.
Logged
CPT MikeyMike
mikeymike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,514
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.58, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2005, 06:04:38 pm »

Hopefully I posted the map correctly. Never done one before.



Close race but Bush pulls it out. Missouri and Wisconsin decide it all.

Bush: 281
Clinton: 257
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2005, 07:15:45 pm »

Everyone's forgetting how weak Bush was.  Perot didn't beat Bush; Bush beat himself.  Perot's candidacy provided an alternative for angry Republicans...and without Perot, a majority of those angry at Bush would have stayed home.

"Read my lips, no new taxes."
Logged
Dave from Michigan
9iron768
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,296
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2005, 07:21:08 pm »

we'll never know

my guess Clinton wins can't explain it though
Logged
nick
nickshepDEM
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,910


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2005, 08:52:17 pm »

Clinton wins.  Perot supporters were pissed off at what was going down in Washtington.  They would have either A. Stayed Home or B.  Broke evenly or just barely for Bush.   Clinton would have won, but would not have carried Montana, Georgia, and Ohio.
Logged
memphis
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,990


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2005, 12:25:42 am »

Anybody know any poll info from the period when Perot had dropped out? I've always wondered about this, but I've never seen the numbers.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,597
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2005, 02:15:28 pm »

Anybody know any poll info from the period when Perot had dropped out? I've always wondered about this, but I've never seen the numbers.

Gallup does have graphs of the polling data for all elections since 1936, but I have lost the link.  Maybe somebody can help us out.
Logged
muon2
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,500


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2005, 02:48:44 pm »

Everyone's forgetting how weak Bush was.  Perot didn't beat Bush; Bush beat himself.  Perot's candidacy provided an alternative for angry Republicans...and without Perot, a majority of those angry at Bush would have stayed home.

"Read my lips, no new taxes."

^^^^^^^^^^

Bush 41 was at a low point in his presidency in 1992. From the bar code readers in NH, the Buchanan fight, the lack of conservative support, all the way through the summer campaign, he was not connecting with the voters.  A wide spectrum of voters were prepared to stay home if they found no alternative to Bush.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,478


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2005, 03:16:23 pm »

I agree. Clinton would have won under similar, if less exciting circumstances.
Logged
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,939
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2005, 06:28:46 pm »


I'm keeling over from laughter right now.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,017
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2005, 06:54:55 pm »

One thing I don't understand is how Perot helped Clinton to win Georgia and Montana, but not even Florida?!  Maybe I'm just looking at this from a 'now' perspective, but it certainly seems weird that a key swing state stayed for Bush, while two very safe Republican states switched over.
Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,969
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2005, 09:34:58 pm »

One thing I don't understand is how Perot helped Clinton to win Georgia and Montana, but not even Florida?! Maybe I'm just looking at this from a 'now' perspective, but it certainly seems weird that a key swing state stayed for Bush, while two very safe Republican states switched over.
Well, Florida wasn't exactly a swing state.  In '88 it went for Bush by 22 points, while the popular vote was only 8 points for Bush.  Even in '96 when the rest of the country went for Clinton 49-40 it went for him by a smaller 48-42.

So that accounts for part of it, yet it can be argued that if Georgia and Montana (particularly Montana) certainly Florida should, and my only answer is that Clinton would have stood a great chance at winning Georgia even if Perot hadn't been running and that Perot could appeal to the libertarian-conservative types in Montana wheras Perot took away many suburban voters in Florida who would have voted for Clinton.
Logged
Ronald Reagan
Spl2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 292
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2005, 05:38:18 pm »

It was based more on the math...I just added Perot's results and Bush's together.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines