Why is Ohio more republican then Pennsylvania?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Discuss. I know the GOP has had several presidents from here but what else is it?

[PoliticalShelter]

Ohio doesn't have a city that is the size of Phillidelphia and the closest there is; Columbus, is nowhere near as Democratic as Philadelphia is. 

[RINO Tom]

Because its suburbs are more Republican than PA's, I'd guess.

[King Lear]

Ohio is much more white and rural then Pennsylvania and lacks the large democratic metropolis that Pennsylvania has (Philadelphia), add to this Pennsylvania’s suburbs are much more democratic then Ohio and that’s why I can’t imagine democrats winning Ohio anytime soon but it’s not that hard to see them winning Pennsylvania again especially when trump is off the ballot in 2024.

[Young Conservative]

Ohio has more mid sized cities with big suburbs. Pennsylvania has one gigantic metropolis whose suburbs struggle to compete. The key is suburbia.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ohio has more mid sized cities with big suburbs. Pennsylvania has one gigantic metropolis whose suburbs struggle to compete. The key is suburbia.

It's more the partisan lean of the suburbs than the size of them.  Every suburban county of Columbus is overwhelmingly Republican, while Delaware and Montgomery Counties outside of Philadelphia are Likely D and Bucks and Chester are roughly tossups.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah. Ohio has 3 Pittsburgh-sized metros, but no Philly equivalent. And it lacks the Democratic suburban areas that we see around Philly. Most of the suburbs of Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati are all very swingy and more like Bucks than Montgomery.

[TML]

In Pennsylvania, Democrats have won 80+% of the vote in Philadelphia in every election since 2000, which contributes to its suburbs also voting Democratic. There is no county in Ohio where Democrats run up margins that high (in fact, their highest vote share in a county was under 70%), so the suburban regions are more Republican in OH than in PA.

[RINO Tom]

This is very simplistic and only includes the "major" MSAs in each state (leaving off important areas like Dayton, Toledo, Scranton, etc., but I don't have time today), but this gives an idea of why OH is much easier for Republicans than PA.  It's relatively common knowledge that a lot of suburban areas that usually vote Republican swung away from Trump, and a lot of rural areas swung toward him.  With that in mind, his improvement in both states' rural areas seems to be relatively similar, but his "crater" in Ohio's major metros wasn't nearly as bad as in Philadelphia (which also has a larger percent of PA's population than any of OH's):

PENNSYLVANIA
Philadelphia Metro: 64.28% DEM, 32.58% GOP
- 1,286,823 votes for Clinton
- 652,235 votes for Trump

Pittsburgh Metro: 50.76% GOP, 45.78% DEM
- 597,389 votes for Trump
- 538,693 votes for Clinton

Both Metros Together: 57.43% DEM, 39.31% GOP
- 1,825,516 votes for Clinton (64.17% of her statewide total)
- 1,249,624 votes for Trump (42.90% of his statewide total)

OHIO
Cleveland Metro: 55.91% DEM, 40.30% GOP
- 542,735 votes for Clinton
- 391,255 votes for Trump

Columbus Metro: 49.94% DEM, 45.54% GOP
- 456,068 votes for Clinton
- 415,881 votes for Trump

Cincinnati Metro: 54.73% GOP, 40.87% DEM
- 444,043 votes for Trump
- 331,632 votes for Clinton

All Three Metros Together: 49.36% DEM, 46.42% GOP
- 1,330,435 votes for Clinton (57.42% of her statewide total)
- 1,251,179 votes for Trump (45.14% of his statewide total)

Suburban voters in Ohio are still mostly reliably Republican (even with Trump), and they are almost able to win the metropolitan vote even when counting the urban areas ... this is not the case at all in Pennsylvania.  Assuming similar rural and exurban support in both states, Republicans can quite easily find a path to victory in Ohio that is much harder in Pennsylvania.  This is backed up by the exit polls, too:

PENNSYLVANIA:
Urban (27%): 70% DEM, 26% GOP
Suburban (53%): 52% GOP, 44% DEM
Rural (19%): 71% GOP, 26% DEM

OHIO:
Urban (31%): 58% DEM, 38% GOP
Suburban (59%): 57% GOP, 37% DEM
Rural (9%): 69% GOP, 27% DEM

To put it frankly, suburban voters hold the keys to elections right now, and the GOP cleaned up with suburban voters in Ohio while doing just well enough with them in PA to win.

EDIT: This also illustrates just how much pundits and people on this site overrate how many *rural* voters there are and talk about this "urban-rural divide" as the defining division in our politics ... if the GOP only had strong support in rural areas, it would already be dead.  They'd be relying on 9% and 17% of the electorate in those two swing states, respectively.

[TDAS04]

This doesn't answer the OP's question, but it's fascinating how the Pittsburgh metro has trended so much to the right.  Trump carried the Pittsburgh metro (as shown by the data in the above post) + solidly Republican rural Pennsylvania, yet he only barely carried the state, since the Philly metro is so large and now overwhelmingly Democratic.

Contrast 2016 with 1988, when Pittsburgh was one of the most Democratic major metropolitan areas in the country.  Bush crushed Dukakis in suburbs everywhere, but Dukakis won almost every county in the Pittsburgh area (all except Butler I believe).  Yet, Bush carried Pennsylvania by a slightly larger margin than Trump, since the Philly suburbs were still quite Republican at the time.

[RINO Tom]

^ I feel by pointing out that Ohio's suburbs are, in fact, more Republican than Pennsylvania's, I somewhat answered the OP's question.

[TDAS04]

^ I feel by pointing out that Ohio's suburbs are, in fact, more Republican than Pennsylvania's, I somewhat answered the OP's question.

Huh?  Yes.  I said my post didn't answer it.

[RINO Tom]

^ I feel by pointing out that Ohio's suburbs are, in fact, more Republican than Pennsylvania's, I somewhat answered the OP's question.

Huh?  Yes.  I said my post didn't answer it.

Ah, okay, sorry.  Misread.

Back to the coffee pot.

[x-Guy]

I suppose Ohio simply has a larger population of republicans on their major areas of vote turnout.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

This is very simplistic and only includes the "major" MSAs in each state (leaving off important areas like Dayton, Toledo, Scranton, etc., but I don't have time today), but this gives an idea of why OH is much easier for Republicans than PA.  It's relatively common knowledge that a lot of suburban areas that usually vote Republican swung away from Trump, and a lot of rural areas swung toward him.  With that in mind, his improvement in both states' rural areas seems to be relatively similar, but his "crater" in Ohio's major metros wasn't nearly as bad as in Philadelphia (which also has a larger percent of PA's population than any of OH's):

PENNSYLVANIA
Philadelphia Metro: 64.28% DEM, 32.58% GOP
- 1,286,823 votes for Clinton
- 652,235 votes for Trump

Pittsburgh Metro: 50.76% GOP, 45.78% DEM
- 597,389 votes for Trump
- 538,693 votes for Clinton

Both Metros Together: 57.43% DEM, 39.31% GOP
- 1,825,516 votes for Clinton (64.17% of her statewide total)
- 1,249,624 votes for Trump (42.90% of his statewide total)

OHIO
Cleveland Metro: 55.91% DEM, 40.30% GOP
- 542,735 votes for Clinton
- 391,255 votes for Trump

Columbus Metro: 49.94% DEM, 45.54% GOP
- 456,068 votes for Clinton
- 415,881 votes for Trump

Cincinnati Metro: 54.73% GOP, 40.87% DEM
- 444,043 votes for Trump
- 331,632 votes for Clinton

All Three Metros Together: 49.36% DEM, 46.42% GOP
- 1,330,435 votes for Clinton (57.42% of her statewide total)
- 1,251,179 votes for Trump (45.14% of his statewide total)

Suburban voters in Ohio are still mostly reliably Republican (even with Trump), and they are almost able to win the metropolitan vote even when counting the urban areas ... this is not the case at all in Pennsylvania.  Assuming similar rural and exurban support in both states, Republicans can quite easily find a path to victory in Ohio that is much harder in Pennsylvania.  This is backed up by the exit polls, too:

PENNSYLVANIA:
Urban (27%): 70% DEM, 26% GOP
Suburban (53%): 52% GOP, 44% DEM
Rural (19%): 71% GOP, 26% DEM

OHIO:
Urban (31%): 58% DEM, 38% GOP
Suburban (59%): 57% GOP, 37% DEM
Rural (9%): 69% GOP, 27% DEM

To put it frankly, suburban voters hold the keys to elections right now, and the GOP cleaned up with suburban voters in Ohio while doing just well enough with them in PA to win.

EDIT: This also illustrates just how much pundits and people on this site overrate how many *rural* voters there are and talk about this "urban-rural divide" as the defining division in our politics ... if the GOP only had strong support in rural areas, it would already be dead.  They'd be relying on 9% and 17% of the electorate in those two swing states, respectively.

Those exit polls show that OH is less rural than PA, but non-rural voters in OH are massively more republican. If OH voters voted like PA ones, it would have gone 50-45 Clinton. If PA voters voted like OH voters, it would have gone 54-40 Trump.

[Lord Admirale]

Probably because between 1992 and 2016, Ohio has gone Republican three times, while Pennsylvania has only gone Republican once.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cuyahoga county is gradually losing minority representation, while Philly and Pittsburgh, minority representation is still stabilized. Cleveland is gradually losing black votes.

[Young Conservative]

Ohio has lots of mid sized cities with big suburbs. PA has one giant metropolis.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

EDIT: This also illustrates just how much pundits and people on this site overrate how many *rural* voters there are and talk about this "urban-rural divide" as the defining division in our politics ... if the GOP only had strong support in rural areas, it would already be dead.  They'd be relying on 9% and 17% of the electorate in those two swing states, respectively.

King Lear thinks every state that Trump wins is filled with rural white voters, including Florida, Arizona and Texas (which are all extremely suburban/urban where only about 10% of voters live in rural areas).