2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Skye]

Has Sean Trende moved VA-10 from Likely R to Lean R yet?

It says Lean D.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/va/virginia_10th_district_comstock_vs_wexton-6348.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

LMAO strong Likely D.

[ON Progressive]

VA-10: Lean D ----> Likely D

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

VA-10: Lean D ----> Likely D

[Gass3268]

Virginia Generic Congressional Ballot (Quinnipiac):

51% Democratic
40% Republican

Motivation to Vote: More - Less - Same
Democrats: 57 - 4 - 39
Republicans: 39 - 4 - 57

Source

[JG]

Virginia Generic Congressional Ballot (Quinnipiac):

51% Democratic
40% Republican

Motivation to Vote: More - Less - Same
Democrats: 57 - 4 - 39
Republicans: 39 - 4 - 57

Source

Are there other Virginia seats that could flip with numbers like these?

[Oryxslayer]

Monmouth says they are releasing a poll tommorow about NJ 11th. I think the dem leads by 4 points.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1011593630186917889

Only 5 points better than Hillary if true, which suggests a D+5 Generic...not enough for a majority.

Yeah, I think the GOP narrowly keeps the house.

Yep, Conor Lamb and Doug Jones are looking to be the exception than the rule. Especially with boring centrist women being nominated over qualified progressive men.

Lamb and Jones are extremely centrist, so I don't have any clue what you're going on about.

It's sarcasm.

[Zaybay]

Virginia Generic Congressional Ballot (Quinnipiac):

51% Democratic
40% Republican

Motivation to Vote: More - Less - Same
Democrats: 57 - 4 - 39
Republicans: 39 - 4 - 57

Source

Are there other Virginia seats that could flip with numbers like these?

If these numbers are true, then the Democrats would definitely flip more seats. The GOP has a dummymander in VA, not meant to resist such high Democratic numbers. I could see VA-2, VA-5, and VA-7 being targeted by the Dems extensively, though these seats have stronger incumbents, or in VA-5's case, a large GOP PVI.

[ON Progressive]

Monmouth says they are releasing a poll tommorow about NJ 11th. I think the dem leads by 4 points.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1011593630186917889

Only 5 points better than Hillary if true, which suggests a D+5 Generic...not enough for a majority.

Yeah, I think the GOP narrowly keeps the house.

Yep, Conor Lamb and Doug Jones are looking to be the exception than the rule. Especially with boring centrist women being nominated over qualified progressive men.

Lamb and Jones are extremely centrist, so I don't have any clue what you're going on about.

It's sarcasm.

It's hofoid, so I doubt he's being sarcastic.

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1011666202580672512

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Comstock won by 6 in 2016, the poll suggests a 16 point shift to the Democrats, which is in line with the national average of special elections

EDIT: Wow, some top notch spin from Donnelly!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1011666202580672512

Where are the polls for North Dakota. Indiana, and Nevada?

Anyways, Sinema +7, Scott +2, Brown +18

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1011666202580672512

Whats with the weird 3 states only polls?

Anyway, my predictions

Sinema +9, Scott +2, Brown +13

[Doimper]

We really need some Indiana polling.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1011666202580672512

Prediction: Sinema +7 (against McSally), Scott +3, Brown +15

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1011666202580672512

Prediction: Sinema +7, Scott +3, Brown +15

Make predictions about predictions, peak atlas lol. Anyways, it is fun and I am exicted for these polls so I'll take a guess at them: Florida, Nelson up 1, Arizona, Sinema up 8 against McSally, 12 against Ward, and 19 again Joe, and Brown up by 13.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CNN finally moved Comstock's race from tossup to Lean Democrat.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In the VA Quinnipac poll, the Democrats got a -1 favorable rating while the GOP got a -26...

The Dems also lead the generic ballot in the state by 11 points.

[Tender Branson]

Why is the TX-27 special election, which is already this Saturday, such a sleeper race ?

It's not all too Republican and the field is wide.

And no poll so far.

[Zaybay]

Why is the TX-27 special election, which is already this Saturday, such a sleeper race ?

It's not all too Republican and the field is wide.

And no poll so far.

The problem is that the district has nothing in the favor of the Dems. It's ineleastic, has no Dem DNA, and has a high PVI in favor of the Reps. This could become similar to the Arizona race, but so far, it appears to be just out of the Democratic reach

[Zaybay]

Dems up in all three Senate Races, per Marist/NBC poll.

Sinema +11

Nelson +4

Brown +13

and the GCB was also released for the states

Arizona: Dems +7

Florida: Dems +6

Ohio: Dems +4

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah, no way is Rick Scott ahead - especially after Parkland.

[Zaybay]

here are the writeups for each one

Arizona:http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_AZ_June%202018.pdf

Florida:http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_FL_June%202018.pdf

Ohio:http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/OHPolls/OH180617/NBC%20News%20Marist%20Poll_Written%20Summary%20of%20Findings_OH_June%202018.pdf

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems up in all three Senate Races, per Marist/NBC poll.

Sinema +11

Nelson +4

Brown +13

and the GCB was also released for the states

Arizona: Dems +7

Florida: Dems +6

Ohio: Dems +4

So it looks like Arizona could walk out of this midterm as a blue state...

[Oryxslayer]

Why is the TX-27 special election, which is already this Saturday, such a sleeper race ?

It's not all too Republican and the field is wide.

And no poll so far.

It's mainly rural and suburban Texas, so the republican base is strong. Meanwhile, the democratic base is small and mainly Hispanic, and Hispanics are currently having trouble turning out to vote in primaries. Maybe there is a rural swing like in SC-05 because of low turnout, but this part of Texas isn't exactly flexible.