2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[UncleSam]

Democrats (and especially Democratic women) are jacked to vote:

Could you link the question or do you have access to it? Obviously Dems are more enthusiastic but be wary of polls which ask comparative questions like ‘are you MORE enthusiastic to vote this year than in prior years’ vs analytic questions like ‘how enthusiastic are you to vote this year’?

Here you go

Thank you! A lot of interesting take seats in this, though the enthusiasm poll is a comparative one so it’s not as valuable as it would appear. The issues questions are very interesting though.

[JG]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

[Dr. Arch]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

Enthusiasm is everything.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

A lot of pundits like GEM put A LOT of emphasis on enthusiasm.

[junior chįmp]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

The enthusiasm gap is everything



Compare the volatility of the 2010 GCB polling to the stability of the enthusiasm gap polling:

GCB:



Enthusiasm:

[JG]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

The enthusiasm gap is everything



Compare the volatility of the 2010 GCB polling to the stability of the enthusiasm gap polling:

GCB:



Enthusiasm:

Thanks! It really looks like that all the focus on the generic ballot might be a bit misplaced then.

[KingSweden]

Has enthusiasm level shown a more significant relations to actual results than the generic ballot in the past?

The enthusiasm gap is everything



Compare the volatility of the 2010 GCB polling to the stability of the enthusiasm gap polling:

GCB:



Enthusiasm:

Thanks! It really looks like that all the focus on the generic ballot might be a bit misplaced then.

A little. It’s a worthwhile metric, and a good data point. But it must be viewed at its intersection and in tandem with enthusiasm polling, fundraising, recruiting, special elections, etc

[KingSweden]

Reuters:

D - 42.7
R - 35.1

I’m not a fan of there being decimals, but chose to present the numbers as-is instead of rounding.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180528/collapsed/true

Still think this is due to them adjusting their sample rather than any real movement towards (or away from) the GOP

[Gass3268]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

It’s less Republican than the population, according to the poll. I should’ve mentioned the slew of other polls disproving the theory as well.

[UncleSam]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

It’s less Republican than the population, according to the poll. I should’ve mentioned the slew of other polls disproving the theory as well.

Every generation is less Republican than the population in their 20s, though. Even the Millennials are becoming less liberal by the year (though it’ll be forty years before they vote for the GOP, making them the most liberal generation relative to age perhaps ever). The fact that the gap is this small surprises me, and leads me to believe that many of the ‘unsure’ youth are actually just going to vote straight Democrat. There’s been a movement on the left to support Democrats but not necessarily to identify as one, and I suspect that’s at play in why these numbers aren’t more lopsided (even if the actual way they vote is).

[LimoLiberal]

Where are the live-caller polls?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

It’s less Republican than the population, according to the poll. I should’ve mentioned the slew of other polls disproving the theory as well.

Every generation is less Republican than the population in their 20s, though. Even the Millennials are becoming less liberal by the year (though it’ll be forty years before they vote for the GOP, making them the most liberal generation relative to age perhaps ever). The fact that the gap is this small surprises me, and leads me to believe that many of the ‘unsure’ youth are actually just going to vote straight Democrat. There’s been a movement on the left to support Democrats but not necessarily to identify as one, and I suspect that’s at play in why these numbers aren’t more lopsided (even if the actual way they vote is).

That doesn't really rebuke what I said.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Where are the live-caller polls?

It's still dead on that front. I don't know why but there has been no good polling in awhile

[Gass3268]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

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Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

It’s less Republican than the population, according to the poll. I should’ve mentioned the slew of other polls disproving the theory as well.

Every generation is less Republican than the population in their 20s, though. Even the Millennials are becoming less liberal by the year (though it’ll be forty years before they vote for the GOP, making them the most liberal generation relative to age perhaps ever). The fact that the gap is this small surprises me, and leads me to believe that many of the ‘unsure’ youth are actually just going to vote straight Democrat. There’s been a movement on the left to support Democrats but not necessarily to identify as one, and I suspect that’s at play in why these numbers aren’t more lopsided (even if the actual way they vote is).

It's a myth that generations get more conservative or shift to Republicans as they get older. Generations political leanings lock in after voting for the same party after 3 elections. There can be Ebbs and flows, but it doesn't really change.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

MTV/AP-NORC Youth Political Pulse Poll:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source

Yeah, the “Most Conservative Generation since WWII” theory is dead and buried.

I hardly see how this is the case, to be honest the only rational assumption that can be made from this poll is that this generation is still developing, 22% say they don't even know what party they identify with and identifying with a party does not always mean you can tell how they stand on every issue.

It’s less Republican than the population, according to the poll. I should’ve mentioned the slew of other polls disproving the theory as well.

Every generation is less Republican than the population in their 20s, though. Even the Millennials are becoming less liberal by the year (though it’ll be forty years before they vote for the GOP, making them the most liberal generation relative to age perhaps ever). The fact that the gap is this small surprises me, and leads me to believe that many of the ‘unsure’ youth are actually just going to vote straight Democrat. There’s been a movement on the left to support Democrats but not necessarily to identify as one, and I suspect that’s at play in why these numbers aren’t more lopsided (even if the actual way they vote is).

It's a myth that generations get more conservative or shift to Republicans as they get older. Generations political leanings lock in after voting for the same party after 3 elections. There can be Ebbs and flows, but it doesn't really change.

Yeah... the GI generation voted for Reagan, but then went right back to voting for Bill Clinton & Al Gore (and voted dem downballot).

Millenials actually became more democratic between 2014 --> 2016.

I do think people generally become more socially conservative as they get older, but a lot of the reason Republicans are doing well with baby boomers is a ton of those baby boomers voted for Reagan. Remember that Ronald Reagan was extremely popular with the youth in the 80s.

[Devout Centrist]

Don't expect live caller polls until June

[Gass3268]

Don't expect live caller polls until June

Tomorrow!?!

[fridgeking]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

[Bidenworth2020]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

damn

[ajc0918]

(PPP) PA-16

Mike Kelly (R) - 48%
Ron DiNicola (D) - 43%

Wow- Trump won PA-16 by 20%.

[LimoLiberal]

It's an internal guys.

[Bidenworth2020]

It's an internal guys.

still.