2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Virginiá]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

[Matty]

This forum would be singing a much different tune on the trend if the dems were initially losing by double digits in rcp average and it trended down to 3.4

[LimoLiberal]

This forum would be singing a much different tune on the trend if the dems were initially losing by double digits in rcp average and it trended down to 3.4

Yep. The improvement and turnaround for Republicans has been incredible in all the aggregates.

[Virginiá]

This forum would be singing a much different tune on the trend if the dems were initially losing by double digits in rcp average and it trended down to 3.4

Probably, but that would be very bad news for Democrats. At least in recent times, they tend to do well in generic polls, even in Republican wave years (at least up until the final few months). To be so far behind so long before election day would portend significant problems imo.

[BudgieForce]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[KingSweden]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[MT Treasurer]

Too bad Hill is basically DOA in the primary. Not that I dislike Comstock or anything (she’s actually surprisingly decent for a NOVA Republican), but the NRCC needs to triage this race and focus on districts that are actually winnable, especially in the long run. Republicans are already losing the expectations game here badly (just like in last year's gubernatorial election).

[_]

YOU DARE TO ATTACK A MAN FOR PARTICIPATING IN JORT SEASON?!?!?!?!

[America Needs R'hllor]

The wearing of jorts past the age of 20 should frankly be a capital offense so Barbara is doing God’s work here

Try living in warm climate, would ya?

[Politician]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[Politician]

This forum would be singing a much different tune on the trend if the dems were initially losing by double digits in rcp average and it trended down to 3.4

Yep. The improvement and turnaround for Republicans has been incredible in all the aggregates.

Limo in 2010: "Yep. The improvement and turnaround for Democrats has been incredible in all the aggregates."

[CityofSinners]

LimoLiberal I've put links to generic poll listings at the top, so you can stop posting tweets with useless "periodic updates" from now on.

Your are a godsend.

[UlmerFudd]

Your pic on the bottom sums up my reaction

[KingSweden]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

[Virginiá]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

[LimoLiberal]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

Fits well within the trend of a declining Democratic edge on the generic ballot.

March: D+11
April: D+9
May: D+7

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

65% of Americans think Iran is violating the Nuke Deal... so uninformed it makes me sad.


I am fully convinced LL is Scott Presler.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

It's more complex than that!  Let's break down D 44, R 37:

D 44: 4 + 4 = 8.

R 37: 3 + 7 = 10.

10 > 8.  Thus, Republicans are favored.  QED

[Politician]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

Fits well within the trend of a declining Democratic edge on the generic ballot.

March: D+11
April: D+9
May: D+7

Read my signature, generic ballot is least accurate in spring and becomes more precise in the fall.

[LimoLiberal]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

Fits well within the trend of a declining Democratic edge on the generic ballot.

March: D+11
April: D+9
May: D+7

Read my signature, generic ballot is least accurate in spring and becomes more precise in the fall.

Do you have evidence for that besides one poll from one election cycle?

[Politician]

Harvard Harris: D 44 - R 37

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Final_HHP_May2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo-Rev1.pdf

Fake news. If you run this through LL's mind model, it comes out to R+1. Politics 101 thx

Fits well within the trend of a declining Democratic edge on the generic ballot.

March: D+11
April: D+9
May: D+7

Read my signature, generic ballot is least accurate in spring and becomes more precise in the fall.

Do you have evidence for that besides one poll from one election cycle?

In 1994, 2010, and 2014 Democrats held early generic ballot leads only to get wiped out all 3 times.

[Virginiá]

Do you have evidence for that besides one poll from one election cycle?

If anything, it's really the last 2-3 weeks. That seems to be a thing for all elections at that, too. Special elections recently have kind of narrowed in the last stretch as people make up their minds. I suppose this is also why analysts tend to say 'waves break late.'

OTOH, 538 did a thing about the generic poll and how predictive it is a year out, and they said it wasn't that bad of a predictor:

Nov. 10, 2017: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/theres-no-reason-to-think-republicans-will-be-in-better-shape-a-year-from-now/



So who knows. Make up your own mind I guess, which I think we all know you're going to do anyway.

[kyc0705]

The wearing of jorts past the age of 20 10 should frankly be a capital offense so Barbara is doing God’s work here

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

The sexism is unbelievable.  Go Shak!

[Maxwell]

unbelievable the way that SJW feminazis are going to attack a mans right to wear jorts. This kind of cancerous political correctness is unacceptable.

Let's make the week of June 12th SHA(r)K WEEK