PA-18 Special Election Prediction
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:32:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  PA-18 Special Election Prediction
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6
Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10
 
#2
Lamb 0-5
 
#3
Saccone 0-5
 
#4
Saccone by 5-10
 
#5
Saccone by 10-20
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 11819 times)
mcmikk
thealmightypiplup
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 681


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: March 09, 2018, 05:52:08 PM »

One part of me, sort of my gut instinct, says that Lamb will win this, but I can very easily see this being, to quote another poster, another 52-48 heart breaker like GA-06. But then again, I think Ossoff probably could have won in a political environment like this.

For now, I'm going to be optimistic and choose Lamb +0-2, but I won't hold my breath.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: March 10, 2018, 12:14:52 PM »

In my FINAL prediction, I'm going to predict a Lamb victory (he really has the momentum going for him and he's a strong candidate):

51.0% Conor Lamb (D)
48.2% Rick Saccone (R)
  0.7% Drew Miller (L)
  0.1% Write-Ins
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2018, 02:13:17 PM »

I was originally thinking Saccone by between 4-5, now I'm thinking Saccone by about 2.
Logged
Incipimus iterum
1236
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,096
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2018, 03:27:30 PM »

Saccone- 53
Lamb- 47
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: March 10, 2018, 04:24:41 PM »

Go big or go home. Lamb by 6
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: March 10, 2018, 08:45:08 PM »

Saccone wins by 3.
Logged
CityofSinners
Rookie
**
Posts: 203


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: March 11, 2018, 02:25:03 PM »

Saccone wins by 4-6, still a good result for democrats.
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: March 11, 2018, 03:23:57 PM »

Call me crazy, but fortune favors the bold, and I think maybe, just maybe, he boutta do it:

Lamb: 52%
Saccone: 46%
Libertarian: 2%

Also wouldn't be surprised by a squeaker in either's favor (or a somewhat larger Saccone win), but I think the conditions have lined up for lightning to strike. We''l find out Tuesday.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: March 11, 2018, 04:24:37 PM »

Lamb by 3
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: March 11, 2018, 04:45:06 PM »

Lamb +1.5
Logged
Tx_Longhorn
Rookie
**
Posts: 16


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: March 11, 2018, 05:30:59 PM »

Lamb +2.3
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: March 11, 2018, 08:26:05 PM »

To be a little more exact:

Conor Lamb (D) - 99,340, 50.87%
Rick Saccone (R) - 94,692, 48.49%
Drew Gray Miller (L)/Write-Ins: - 1,250, 0.64%

Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,623
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: March 11, 2018, 08:29:19 PM »

Conor Lamb: 50.02%
Rick Saccone: 49.43%
Others: 0.55%

Lamb gets a majority of around 100 votes, but beats Saccone by several thousand.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,268
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: March 11, 2018, 08:35:10 PM »

Lamb +2.4
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2018, 11:41:19 AM »



A question to ponder. I lean towards it being spin because the NRCC has shown itself to be masterful at this expectation-settings game before, but I do think internal numbers aren't good for Saccone based on the sheer volume of "GOP panic!" articles.
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2018, 12:07:10 PM »

Saccone by 1.7
Logged
Torrain
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2018, 12:42:23 PM »

Lamb by 1.4
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,201


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2018, 12:43:39 PM »

Lamb + 2
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,933
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2018, 12:51:20 PM »

Lamb +3 or +4
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,072
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2018, 12:52:29 PM »

Saccone +2
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2018, 12:55:05 PM »

Now I’ll say Lamb wins 50-48.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2018, 01:25:05 PM »

I was waiting for the final Monmouth poll. At this point I'll say Lamb by 0 to 5 Points. On fact, I would say there is an ever so slightly higher chance of lamb exceeding a five point margin than there is of Saccone winning.
Logged
The Dowager Mod
texasgurl
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: -9.48, S: -8.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2018, 01:32:03 PM »

Saccone +3
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,100
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2018, 01:45:11 PM »

Lamb by 6
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: March 12, 2018, 01:50:40 PM »

Lamb + 4


Still, with reservations. I'd say Saccone but combined with recent polling, I do feel like the momentum is with Lamb now, which is not something Ossoff had (iirc).

I just hope Lamb wins, because if he doesn't, I can only imagine the dire predictions for Democrats that will inevitably be circulating among the punditocracy will be suffocating, regardless of the fact that this district isn't even one that Democrats would need to win in November to flip the House.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 14 queries.