PA-18 Special Election Prediction

[mcmikk]

One part of me, sort of my gut instinct, says that Lamb will win this, but I can very easily see this being, to quote another poster, another 52-48 heart breaker like GA-06. But then again, I think Ossoff probably could have won in a political environment like this.

For now, I'm going to be optimistic and choose Lamb +0-2, but I won't hold my breath.

[Tender Branson]

In my FINAL prediction, I'm going to predict a Lamb victory (he really has the momentum going for him and he's a strong candidate):

51.0% Conor Lamb (D)
48.2% Rick Saccone (R)
  0.7% Drew Miller (L)
  0.1% Write-Ins

[Bidenworth2020]

I was originally thinking Saccone by between 4-5, now I'm thinking Saccone by about 2.

[Incipimus iterum]

Saccone- 53
Lamb- 47

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Go big or go home. Lamb by 6

[Progressive Pessimist]

Saccone wins by 3.

[CityofSinners]

Saccone wins by 4-6, still a good result for democrats.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Call me crazy, but fortune favors the bold, and I think maybe, just maybe, he boutta do it:

Lamb: 52%
Saccone: 46%
Libertarian: 2%

Also wouldn't be surprised by a squeaker in either's favor (or a somewhat larger Saccone win), but I think the conditions have lined up for lightning to strike. We''l find out Tuesday.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb by 3

[Skill and Chance]

Lamb +1.5

[Tx_Longhorn]

Lamb +2.3

[The Other Castro]

To be a little more exact:

Conor Lamb (D) - 99,340, 50.87%
Rick Saccone (R) - 94,692, 48.49%
Drew Gray Miller (L)/Write-Ins: - 1,250, 0.64%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Conor Lamb: 50.02%
Rick Saccone: 49.43%
Others: 0.55%

Lamb gets a majority of around 100 votes, but beats Saccone by several thousand.

[Sestak]

Lamb +2.4

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/973236153561251841

A question to ponder. I lean towards it being spin because the NRCC has shown itself to be masterful at this expectation-settings game before, but I do think internal numbers aren't good for Saccone based on the sheer volume of "GOP panic!" articles.

[VPH]

Saccone by 1.7

[Torrain]

Lamb by 1.4

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lamb + 2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lamb +3 or +4

[Mr. Smith]

Saccone +2

[Xing]

Now I’ll say Lamb wins 50-48.

[Badger]

I was waiting for the final Monmouth poll. At this point I'll say Lamb by 0 to 5 Points. On fact, I would say there is an ever so slightly higher chance of lamb exceeding a five point margin than there is of Saccone winning.

[The Dowager Mod]

Saccone +3

[Devout Centrist]

Lamb by 6

[Virginiá]

Lamb + 4


Still, with reservations. I'd say Saccone but combined with recent polling, I do feel like the momentum is with Lamb now, which is not something Ossoff had (iirc).

I just hope Lamb wins, because if he doesn't, I can only imagine the dire predictions for Democrats that will inevitably be circulating among the punditocracy will be suffocating, regardless of the fact that this district isn't even one that Democrats would need to win in November to flip the House.