PA-18 Special Election Prediction
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Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10		  
#2
Lamb 0-5		  
#3
Saccone 0-5		  
#4
Saccone by 5-10		  
#5
Saccone by 10-20		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 12035 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: January 18, 2018, 10:18:38 AM »
I said Saccone by 10-20, specifically Saccone +15. The generic ballot is at about +6 for Democrats, so they should outperform Clinton who lost by 19 in this district. However, factoring in that 1) Polling and demographics say that Trump has retained his approval in this district better than the nation, 2) Republicans are outspending Lamb, 3) I believe the generic ballot will continue to collapse for Democrats into March along with Trump's approval rising, therefore Saccone +15.

Of course, my assumptions about the generic ballot trend could be completely wrong and I'm interested in hearing other's opinions.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2018, 10:19:16 AM »
53-45 Saccone, barring him being a pedo.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2018, 10:21:46 AM »
Fivethirtyeight has generic ballot at D+8. I voted Saccone +0-5 because of the massive Republican dog sweat and because whatever the congressional ballot is showing, the ballot box is showing a big swing to the Dems as recently as two days ago.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2018, 10:22:14 AM »
P.S. Saccone 10-20 currently has 0 votes, so if you voted, it didn't save.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2018, 10:57:47 AM »
Saccone by 5-10. Though somewhat better Democratic result (0-5) will not surprise me. Democratic win here - will....
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2018, 11:17:21 AM »
I’ll say Saccone by 4. Massive underperformance but holds the seat
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2018, 11:29:56 AM »
Lamb +2
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2018, 12:41:35 PM »
Saccone by 15+, maybe even breaking 20.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2018, 12:44:43 PM »
Lamb wins by 3-5 or so. You people do realize that these special elections tend to favor Democrats, right? Republicans have underperformed significantly in virtually every single one of them, particularly WI.
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Boss_Rahm
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« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2018, 12:52:33 PM »
Saccone by 8.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2018, 12:59:53 PM »
Saccone really seems like a subpar candidate,  no one likes him.   Lamb on the other hand seems like an almost perfect candidate, and I'm not just being a hack here.

In face, Saccone is so bad they're having both Pence and Trump campaign in the area for him,  that kinda smells like desperation.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2018, 03:02:22 PM »
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2018, 03:07:44 PM »
Rick Saccone 53%
Conor Lamb 45%
Other 2%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2018, 03:20:20 PM »
50.6% Rick Saccone (R)
48.7% Conor Lamb (D)
  0.7% Drew Miller (L)

Rick Saccone (R) wins by 1.9 points, in a district he should win by 15-25.

Hopefully, my prediction streak continues (was only off by 0.1 points in the AL Senate race).
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2018, 03:26:39 PM »
Rick Saccone (R) 50%
Conor Lamb (D) 49%
Drew Miller (L) 1%
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2018, 03:27:14 PM »

This exactly.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2018, 03:27:52 PM »
Lamb, 50-49-1.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2018, 03:29:04 PM »

Haha, what a joke XD.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2018, 03:33:18 PM »
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2018, 04:29:59 PM »
I recommend people base their prediction off of this-
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/PA/house/18/
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2018, 05:12:24 PM »
Option 4. Which would still be a stunningly bad result for Republicans in a district like this. Of course the concern trolls will say Dems are doomed because they didn't win an R+11 district in the heart of Trump country in a landslide, lol.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2018, 05:46:29 PM »
Saccone: 56.8
Lamb: 41.1
Other: 3.1
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2018, 08:10:26 PM »
Saccone by 3-6, echoing the trend of other recent special elections in heavily GOP districts. But I wouldn't be surprised with anything from a Lamb+3 to Saccone+12.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2018, 09:59:59 PM »
Saccone 53-47.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2018, 10:05:47 PM »
Saccone + 9. I don't have much hope for this special election honestly, but I could be wrong like I was about Alabama.
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