PA-18 Special Election Prediction
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  PA-18 Special Election Prediction
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Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10
 
#2
Lamb 0-5
 
#3
Saccone 0-5
 
#4
Saccone by 5-10
 
#5
Saccone by 10-20
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 11816 times)
Mr. Smith
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« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2018, 10:06:55 PM »

Saccone by 3-6, echoing the trend of other recent special elections in heavily GOP districts. But I wouldn't be surprised with anything from a Lamb+3 to Saccone+12.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2018, 10:19:25 PM »

I don't know if any 3Ps will be competitive, so I'll skip the specific numbers and just guess Saccone by 2. Lamb seems to be running an incredibly strong campaign and Saccone... yeah. But it's hard, personally, to see it swinging that much, though it's certainly possible.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #27 on: January 18, 2018, 11:20:37 PM »

Lamb by 0.8.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #28 on: January 19, 2018, 11:46:46 AM »

The pessimist in me says it'll be narrowly Saccone. But Lamb has been a very strong candidate
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2018, 11:36:10 PM »
« Edited: March 07, 2018, 06:54:34 AM by Brittain33 »

I voted Saccone by 8+.
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Pericles
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« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2018, 11:40:11 PM »

Current prediction, though it may change.
Pennsylvania-18th congressional district 2018 special election
Conor Lamb(D)-50.25%
Rick Saccone(R)-48.91%
Others-0.84%
Margin: Lamb+1.34%
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2018, 11:46:14 PM »

My prediction, even though it's not guaranteed to happen: Conor Lamb wins with less than fifty percent of the vote and Republican politicians around the nation suddenly need to change their pants when they learn about the results.
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Horus
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« Reply #32 on: March 06, 2018, 11:47:20 PM »

I voted Saccone by 8+. The recent Texas primary along with Trump's rising approval indicates that Republicans are resurgent.

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henster
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« Reply #33 on: March 06, 2018, 11:48:02 PM »

Adjusting my prediction after the TX results, Lamb narrowly loses by 3-5 points. The Trump rally on Saturday gives Saccone the turnout he needs.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2018, 12:00:36 AM »

Oh jfc henster don't become another limo
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2018, 12:50:46 AM »

51 Saccone 47 Lamb.
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Beet
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« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2018, 12:53:03 AM »

Have there even been any polls of this race in the past 2 weeks other than that fake one?
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progressive85
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« Reply #37 on: March 07, 2018, 01:18:09 AM »

I'd say 52-48 Saccone, and that's based on the overperformance of Democrats in special elections last year (SC, KS, GA).  Conor Lamb seems to be a stronger D candidate than usual for this district.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #38 on: March 07, 2018, 01:20:34 AM »

Don’t know nor do I particularly care. All I know is that Lamb is gonna beat Rothfus in the race that actually matters. Not some irrelevant R+11 seat that will be under new lines.

Yes but Democrats under-performed expectations in the Texas primaries so they are probably going to post a net loss of about 25 seats in the House.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #39 on: March 07, 2018, 02:13:23 AM »

Rick Saccone (R) 50.1%
Conor Lamb (D) 49%
Other 0.9%

Saccone barely wins, causing Republicans to worry, but Democrats to worry about why they can't seal the deal.

Of course, I was wrong about Doug Jones...so I hope I'm wrong here too.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #40 on: March 07, 2018, 02:15:20 AM »

Current prediction, though it may change.
Pennsylvania-18th congressional district 2018 special election
Conor Lamb(D)-50.25%
Rick Saccone(R)-48.91%
Others-0.84%
Margin: Lamb+1.34%
Something like this. I'm predicting a close Lamb win.
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Xing
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« Reply #41 on: March 07, 2018, 02:23:34 AM »

Saccone 50-48, but I'll probably change my prediction before next week.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #42 on: March 07, 2018, 05:01:43 AM »
« Edited: March 07, 2018, 10:43:45 AM by smoltchanov »

50-48 in somebody's favor. Most likely - Saccone, but Lamb's victory will not be a surprise either..
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #43 on: March 07, 2018, 08:26:07 AM »

It's a Kandering, and that's my default answer until proven otherwise when there's a good D candidate.
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windjammer
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« Reply #44 on: March 07, 2018, 09:07:37 AM »

Saccone by 2-4
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #45 on: March 07, 2018, 09:32:34 AM »

Saccone by 5.
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here2view
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« Reply #46 on: March 07, 2018, 10:20:16 AM »

Scone 51 Lamb 48
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #47 on: March 07, 2018, 10:21:45 AM »

This is shaping up to be a narrow Lamb win. Lamb 0-2
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #48 on: March 07, 2018, 10:51:19 AM »

I hope I'm woring here, but think Saccone will narrowly pull it off. Another 52-48% heartbreaker.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #49 on: March 07, 2018, 10:58:13 AM »

I’ll say Lamb by less than a percent, though a Saccone win would not surprise me in the least. Either way, Lamb will be in Rothfus’s seat come January
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