PA-18 Special Election Prediction

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Feeling very confident today! Lamb +4

[TheSaint250]

Conor Lamb (D): 49.0%
Rick Saccone (R): 48.0%
Drew Miller (L): 1.0%

Who gets the remaining 2% ?

Thanks for catching that. Just fixed it

[Artaxerxes]

Lamb wins by 3.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Breaking down the district by county predictions:

ALLEGHENY 47% of the vote - 56/44
WESTMORELAND 31% of the vote - 45/55
WASHINGTON 20% of the vote - 49/51
GREENE 2% of the vote - 43/56

Everyone seems to forget Greene was the closest to Obama 08 and is more ancestrally D. I can see it voting Lamb, but it will certainly match Washington if not exceed Lamb percent.

I did account for this by swinging Greene more towards Lamb than the other counties, but good point. I made it 45/54.

[Adam Griffin]

61 Unique, Precise Responses in March
Average: Saccone +0.05

[OneJ]

Now I’ll say Lamb wins 50-48.

Same. And addition to this, it's getting tough although I don't think it's impossible for Saccone to come out victorious over Lamb.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

3-5 for Lamb.

[Mycool]

Guessing it’s decided <5%. I think Saccone will possibly pull it out, unfortunately, if only because of how conservative this district is. Now, I think Lamb wins in November in his new district.

[Adam Griffin]

Final Atlas Margin (62 March Responses; Unique):
Saccone +0.02

Not the worst prediction Atlas has made.

[mcmikk]

Now, see, when I predicted Lamb +3, I meant 3 votes. Not 3 percent.

[Oryxslayer]

I originally thought Saccone by 5, something like 52-48 or 53-47, however now I am no longer sure. Still think the district is too R for a dem to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lamb wins. Putting it like 50-50 chances of either candidate winning.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Saccone (R): 0%
Lamb (D): 0%
Jeb! (Jeb): 100%