Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Poirot]

For the federal Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election, the Conservative candidate will be Richard Martel. He is a hockey coach who coached the Chicoutimi team in the Quebec Junior League.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1074269/parti-conservateur-canada-confirme-candidature-richard-martel

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

For the Bloc, Mario Gagnon is thinking about running. He is a firefighter involved in the collect and repair of toys for kids. He lost a nomination in the past to run for the PQ.
 

[Poirot]

Someone is seeking the NDP nomination in Chicoutimi. Eric Dubois who works for the CSN union. He lost the nomination race in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2015 but ran for the party in the 2007 by-election in Roberval-Lac-St-Jean and in 2006 and 2004.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/eric-dubois-souhaite-etre-candidat-du-npd-a25af6880f12ec9935391f883f416ca3

[Poirot]

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

Pettersen has decided not to run for the nomination in Chicoutimi. Could be a candidate again in the next general election in Jonquière. He says he wants tol support an unnamed candidate able to block people associated with the previous Saguenay administration (refering to Bouchard I figure).

Marielle Couture could be candidate for the Rhinoceros party. She is a former candidate and the party's Director of rainbows. She wants to abolish the months of February and November to reduce depression.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/marc-pettersen-renonce-9b74a9fb9ef197744e1c3f6fc15024b4

[Poirot]

Singh visited Outremont and the story says he is open to running to replace Mulcair when he leaves. They are studying the pros and cons.   

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2018/04/03/jagmeet-singh-songe-a-se-presenter-au-quebec

I guess it's normal to try to see if he could win but I imagine the Liberals would campaign even harder to win it back since it benefits them to have the NDP not too strong.

[Poirot]

I don't think it would be a good idea to run there but maybe I'm more influenced by traditional Outremont result. Maybe the NDP are looking at Singh possibility of taking votes in multicultural Outremont or that in a by-election with a lower turnout their base could turnout more than the general population like recent immigrants. 

[Poirot]

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord needs to be called by June 2nd.
Four persons are running for the Liberal nomination so far. Claude Bouchard of Promotion Saguenay. Michel Ringuette who is a former mayor of Saint-Charles-de-Bourget, young entrepreneur Simon-Pierre Murdock and Lina Boivin business consultant and was appointed to Port Saguenay's board by the liberal government.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1090489/candidat-investiture-parti-liberal-canada-elections-partielle

There was a phone poll being done asking what are the priorities for the riding and what they think of different people including conservative candidate Richard Martel and Lina Boivin.

The riding executive of the Bloc has asked Ouellet to quit. They had found a candidate but won't run if she stays. I think think the consultation on Ouellet's leadership is at the same time as the limit to call the election, they will have to find someone else. The riding executive will not work for a candidate if Ouellet stays.   

[Poirot]

For Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, former MP Dany Morin has decided not to run or for the general in 2019. The NDP's only candidate seems to be Eric Dubois who lost the nomination in 2015 for Lac-Saint-Jean but ran for the party in previous elections. He works for the CSN union.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/jagmeet-singh-ne-serait-pas-candidat-8021406a02ccd467d48ff00618fc82c6

[Poirot]

if the Conservatives do pick it up, it means that the riding will have voted for four different parties in four straight elections. Has that ever happened before?

The federal riding of Louis-Hébert in the last four elections.
2006 Conservative
2008 Bloc Québécois
2011 NDP
2015 Liberal

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis-H%C3%A9bert_(electoral_district)

[Poirot]

NDP's candidate who will try to hold Outremont is Julia Sanchez.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-candidate-outremont-1.4761028

She was president of the Canadian Council of International Cooperation. She has lived in Ottawa for seven years and before that overseas but lived in Outremont in 2004.

[Poirot]

The Green party will not run a candidate in federal Burnaby South against NDP leader Singh citing leader's courtesy.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/greens-won-t-run-candidate-in-burnaby-south-as-leader-s-courtesy-to-singh-may-1.4055747

[Poirot]

Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that it’s just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

I agree more with DL's explanation. Maybe Liberlas don't think they would win in Burnaby. Not contesting it downplays NDP's win, they can spin they are courteous to a leader's party, and if Singh makes pipeline a big issue the Liberals avoid a loss on this issue or don't have to engage in a fight on the issue in that riding.

Also if Burnaby is held at the same time as Outremont, the Liberals can spin they win an NDP held riding whilethe the NDP leader winning a seat is not a big win if not much contested. 

[Poirot]

so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

[Poirot]

so far 59% Conservative, 34% Liberal, NDP and Green around 3%. That makes Turmel only 3% from third place.

Not sure, I don't really get what that means. Which party is Turkel?

John Turmel is running as Independent. He's been a candidate in nearly 100 hundred elections. He ussually doesn't get many votes. He's lucky not all by-elections took place at the same time. I imagine he will run in one from the next group of by-elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel

[Poirot]

Quebec by-election on December 10 in Roberval to replace former Premier Couillard.

I imagine it's an easy win for the CAQ, close to the general election they won, no real reason to vote to be in opposition, no incumbent Premier running this time, no permanent leader for PLQ or PQ.

CAQ's canddiate is Nancy Guillemette. She is a former councillor in Roberval and head a mental health organization. PLQ is running William Laroche, a 27 year old councillor in Chambord and president of a cowboy festival. 

Four candidates from the general election are running again. For the PQ the same 21 year old is running again, QS has the same chef as candidate and the Quebec Conservative and a marginal party also have the same canadiate. The Greens didn't have a candidate in the general election but this time the party leader Alex Tyrrell is running. He often runs in by-elections. It's about the tenth times he is a candidate and he is young, he could be a threat to John Turmel's record!   

[Poirot]

Roberval for the Quebec Assembly

With half the polling stations reporting:
CAQ 52% PQ 19% PLQ 15% QS 11%

[Poirot]

Pollster Quito Maggi's take on the three federal byelections based on his polling a couple of montha ago. He has Singh in third place. The Chinese population in the riding is 40%. Survey respondents in Mandarin and Cantonese put him in distant third. Singh was leading or in close three way race with English respondents. Conservatives are popular with Chinese voters.

For Outremont his polling suggested a runaway win for the Liberals. Maggi thinks there could be a Liberal surprise in York Simcoe due to popularity of local candidate and if NDP is very low.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/01/11/turnout-will-be-deciding-factor-in-burnaby-south-byelection-pollster/