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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 33962 times)
adma
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Posts: 1,583
« on: January 25, 2018, 12:02:57 am »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2018, 02:47:35 pm »

Though Thorsteinson might tokenly temper the Innisfail-SL UCP-landslide picture, I reckon.
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2018, 01:49:12 pm »

Still my point is Burnaby South is a huge gamble and far from a slam dunk.  New Westminster-Burnaby or Vancouver East, agreed the NDP would easily hold, but neither MP is stepping down.

How "huge" a gamble is it?  Remember that 2015 was skewed by Justinmania vs Mulcair's dreary leadership; and that provincially, it was still the Christy Clark regime and voters were jaded about the BC NDP after so many failed/thwarted kicks at the can.

Of course, to state the obvious: there's an operating assumption here that suburban Vancouver would be less averse to electing a turbanned Sikh than inner-city Montreal (much less Quebec at large)
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2018, 07:08:21 am »

Larry DUCHESNE             NDP                292
Scott LOCKHART              NSLP           1,829
Bruce W. MCCULLOCH      GPNS              235
Tory RUSHTON                PC               3,417
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2018, 06:34:42 pm »

Tories:

Over 60% is a good night as last provincial election and federally in 2011 they cracked the 60% mark.  Under 50% is a bad showing as the only time at either level this has happened in recent memory is in 2015.

It depends on how far back you define "recent memory", of course, w/Ontario being a Liberal monolith pre-2004.

And as demonstration of how even outside of the Chretien era, L-G hasn't been immune to backlash against blue under certain conditions, it went Liberal already in 1988--the archetypal left-field "Free Trade Election" pickup.  (Not that anything like that is poised to happen now, of course.)
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2018, 08:18:20 am »

Have there been any province-wide polls since the GE? CAQ victory is not a surprise, but third place and just 15% is shockingly bad for the PLQ.

Though it's probably not terribly unlike what would have happened in Couillard's absence.  And whatever the provincewide polls, the Anglo core's solid.  (Interesting, though, if we have a province-wide 2nd place for QS situation brewing)
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #6 on: December 13, 2018, 06:40:21 pm »

PLQ has never done worse than 25% in that riding before (previous nadir was in 1998), so it's definitely a worse result for them than a typical losing-the-GE result. The Anglo core being solid doesn't help the PLQ if they're getting barely out of single digits with Francophones.

But that was already the universal trend in the recent general election: the PLQ achieving by far their worst results ever in the vast bulk of Francophone ridings.  It's just that the byelection "liberated" Roberval to catch up with the trend--following so soon after the GE, it's more like an Couillard-free appendix to the same...
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2019, 06:43:10 pm »

I think it's actually amazing that the three main parties are all running POC candidates; Chinese, Sikh and Korean.

It may also be an unspoken reason why the People's candidate is polling so high.
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2019, 06:24:47 pm »

Number of voters in Burnaby South who can even find Venezuela on a map = 0

Well, maybe not that extreme; but certainly, those who are heavily preoccupied with Venezuela as an electoral deal-breaker are minimal.  Especially when it comes to a byelection, as opposed to a general election--and especially in a riding where the "ethnic" centre of gravity is far, far more Asiatic than Hispano-American...
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adma
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Posts: 1,583
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2019, 07:04:59 pm »

Can we transfer discussion here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=312465.0
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