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  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 34865 times)
DL
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,435
Canada
« on: January 10, 2018, 05:04:53 pm »

There may be a very interesting byelection in The Battlefords in the coming year as well and that would be a genuine SK swing seat.
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DL
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2018, 12:44:16 am »

Any seat the NDP did not win in 2015 is certainly not going to be won by them in any by-election.

The only possible exception to that would be if there was a byelelction in Calgary Mountainview which is currently the sole Liberal seat in Alberta. It is actually demographically the best riding in Calgary for the NDP and is very much the Calgary equivalent of Edmonton Strathcona...had it not been for David Swann’s peronal appeal it would likely have gone NDP by a very wide margin in 2015
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2018, 12:44:24 pm »

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview
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DL
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2018, 10:07:36 am »

The only other current UCP seat that i could see the NDP contending in someday would be Calgary-Greenway. It is the most heavily immigrant/visible minority riding in the city and is the core of the federal Calgary-Skyview seat that went Liberal in 2015. had it not been for a very popular PC incumbent running there in 2015 and the NDP running a WASP paper candidate, it almost certainly would have gone NDP in 2015
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2018, 10:51:54 am »

I doubt very much if Singh would actually run in a byelection in Outremont, but i don't think it harms him at all to be coy and let it be known that nothing is ruled out...
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2018, 07:38:29 am »


I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that it’s just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

Thirdly, if Singh dropped dead tomorrow and the NDP suddenly had to replace him, who would that replacement be that supposedly strikes fear in the hearts of Liberals. Charlie Angus who speaks virtually no French and was a total flop when he ran for leader? Niki Ashton the strident, humorless Socialist Caucus darling? Seriously, if there was someone else who wanted to be leader who had that much potential to cut I to the Liberal vote...that person would be leader right now.
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 04:59:32 pm »

If Nathan Cullen wanted to be NDP leader he could have run last year and it likely would have been a coronation but he didn’t want the job and there is no reason to believe he  wants the job anymore now than he did then
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2018, 06:12:13 pm »

This the same Lotuslander who said:

1. There was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP would win the byelection in Coquitlam-Burke Mount. They won
2. The NDP would get no more than 6 seats in BC in the 2015 federal election. They got 14
3. That there was absolutely no chance at all of the BC NDP winning in 2017 and that in fact they would likely get only 20-odd seats. They got 42 seats and are now the government
4. That there was no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could form a minority government after the 2015 election and that even if they did it would collapse within a month...over a year later they are still in power and by all accounts quite popular and effective.

Lotuslander does serve a useful purpose when it comes to figuring out NDP fortunes in BC. Just read what he says will happen and then you can rest assured that the exact opposite will actually happen.
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2018, 09:02:45 pm »


I hate to be picked about grammar but the noun is a "coronation" and the verb is "to crown"...it should be "if Singh gets crowned in Burnaby"
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2018, 06:59:17 am »

Maybe Singh will do well in his first outing as NDP leader or maybe he’ll do badly. Maybe he will win the byelection in Burnaby South or maybe he’ll lose. We shall see. All I know is that Lotuslander has an almost perfect record of being dead wrong in his predictions. Maybe he will be right this time. Anything is possible and a broken clock can tell the right time twice a day
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2018, 08:33:11 am »

Well then maybe “anointed” is a better word. Coronation refers to a monarch receiving the crown
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2018, 01:36:12 pm »


Sheila Malcolmson is probably just about the strongest candidate the BC NDP could run in that byelection and it sounds like Horgan intends to call the byelection very quickly as soon as the seat is officially vacant and get in a quick win while government is still reasonably popular.

Who knows when and if a federal byelection would take place. Chances are the federal seat wouldn't be officially vacant until late November meaning no need to call a byelection until May - at which point we are getting close to the 2019 campaign...
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,435
Canada
« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2019, 07:10:01 pm »

Number of voters in Burnaby South who can even find Venezuela on a map = 0
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