Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AmyMarlene/status/1079173790699900933

Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AmyMarlene/status/1079173790699900933

Looks like Singh will have some serious competition in the by-election, then (so much for Trudeau potentially extending a "leader's courtesy" to Singh lol). She was the BC Liberal candidate in Burnaby-Deer Lake in the 2017 provincial election, losing to then-City Councillor Anne Kang of the BCNDP by a 48-36 margin. She's also a daycare operator & defeated a scientist for the nomination in a meeting where 123 people voted. I'm not sure why they'd pick somebody who ran for the BC Liberals, though, b/c that could serve to totally destroy her progressive credibility, esp. considering who she's going up against in Singh (though I could definitely see how any talk from Singh about childcare could have him walking into a bear trap).

In the end, I think the BCNDP releases a crapton of their staff & organizers to help & the federal party spends ridiculous amounts of money on the campaign to only see Singh win by 200 votes or so, but I also wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if the Liberals end up taking it, either, esp. if the riding feels that he doesn't make the cut b/c he's neither from nor has strong connections in the local community.

The choice of a more Centre-Right or pure Centrist candidate will help, if only marginally so, Mr Singh. She will be at every occasion targeted for her links to the arguably corrupt and very fiscally conservative BCLiberals. This could also be strategic for the LPC as well, they may be trying to attract some moderate conservative voters who would vote BCL provincially and CON federally. What bear trap around child care? The NDP ran and still supports a "a national, federally-funded child care program" I might be missing a BC specific issue?

I do think Singh looks better then he did when he first announced he'd run; he lives here with his family now and has been campaigning ferociously for months. He took the high ground and failed to fall for the dirty LPC trick of baiting Brampton East. The Greens not running a candidate makes Singh the only Left-Progressive option for voters in this traditional Left-Progressive seat.
While Burnaby South was close in 2015, it was not in 2011 (NDP vs CON), but before 2012 this was split between Burnaby-Douglas and Burnaby-New West, but NDP since 2004, and BNW even before that (Svend Robinson's old seat).
The BC government is still relatively popular, and I do not see voters using this by-election to punish the NDP (ala the 90s), the most recent Nov polling has the BCNDP only -2 points, but the BCLiberals -7 and the Greens -3.
As for Federal polling, the terrible late Nov polling that had the NDP around 14%, has rebounded slightly up to around 16-18%.
 

Lol I meant that if Singh starts talking about childcare, he'll find himself debating against somebody who has direct experience w/ daycare centers & is presumably much more well-versed in childcare as a policy area than Singh. It would be electorally fatal optics for Singh if he were to be perceived as talking down to a woman who likely knows far more than he does about the topic.