Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Jeppe]

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

[Jeppe]

A uniform swing to match the latest by-election result (that implied a popular vote tie), would have the results pegged as

Swift Current
65% - Sask Party
30% - NDP

Kindersley
52% - Sask Party
23% - NDP
17% - Right-wing independent challenger

Melfort
60% - Sask Party
34% - NDP

Swift Current will probably swing more dramatically than the rest, due to the previous incumbent being such a transcendent figure in the city (I would know, I lived there for a couple of years).

Also, expect Indian Head-Milestone to be vacated for Alanna Koch if she won, she lives in the riding and Don McMorris, the shamed former Deputy Premier is the MLA for that seat.

Indian Head-Milestone
60% - Sask Party
39% - NDP

[Jeppe]

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I don’t think he has a future in politics. I don’t think Roy Moore actually had non-oral penetrative sex with the high school girls he dated. Patrick Brown did.

[Jeppe]

Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354

I wonder if the Liberals will target it?

They aren't going anywhere with their new leader.

[Jeppe]

Singh is probably a favourite to win the seat, as the Tory surge will keep LPC numbers relatively low compared to 2015 in seats like this.

[Jeppe]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/by-election-regina-northeast-1.4787481

Should be an easy NDP pick-up, the NDP got their preferred candidate and the Sask Party is straddled with an unknown candidate that took out their preferred candidate in the nomination contest.

[Jeppe]

Karen Wang, the Liberal candidate in Burnaby-South is receiving backlash for some racial comments about Singh on WeChat.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/15/as-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-campaigns-in-burnaby-south-a-liberal-candidate-brings-race-into-the-byelection.html

Despite the interview hiccup, it seems quite possible that Singh runs away with this race in the end. Mainstreet also usually underestimates NDP support quite a bit too, but we'll see.