Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall

Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall

Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).

Any chance for the Greens to gain enough vote share that they could allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle? I feel like that'd be too much room to make up, but I'm also not super familiar with local politics in that area.

Unlikely they would probably need to win roughly 27% or so to let the liberals win so you get something like 35-33-27-5 split (BC Liberal-NDP-Green-Other) or something. Also I imagine if their was any serious concern about vote splitting the Greens might not run a candidate as they wouldn’t want to see the government brought down before the electoral referendum takes place.   

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial liberals are running their leader here so will be interesting to see how he does.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.

With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Looking at the vacant seats right now, here are my thoughts on what I think will happen.

Burnaby South: I would give the NDP a slight edge, especially if Singh runs here as the Greens have promised not to put up a candidate.  I wouldn't be shocked if the Liberals picked this up.  A Tory pickup is possible but unlikely and need a strong perfect three way split for that to happen.  Nonetheless of the five open this is the only one beyond the two they already hold they have even a remote chance at.

Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes: Anything other than a solid Tory win would be a huge shock here.

Outremont: I think the Liberals will likely pick this up, but it will be interesting to see whether NDP forms a strong second or implodes badly, good hint on the NDP prospects in Quebec.

St. Leonard-St. Michel: Very safe Liberal riding, Liberals in a landslide.

York-Simcoe: Also a very safe Tory riding, so anything other than a solid Tory win will be a huge shocker.

With the Kinder Morgan pipeline being unpopular in Burnaby I would be shocked if the NDP lost Burnaby South.

Support for the pipeline is 20 points above opposition in BC. Granted it's obviously not that high in Burnaby South, but I am not sure it is widely opposed, just those who oppose it are the nosiest. You have a large immigrant community as well as many over 50 who care more about jobs and economy. It's more your ex hippies amongst the over 50 and native born millennials who are most opposed to it and latter tends to not show up in by-elections.

The NDP swept Burnaby fairly comfortably in 2017 provincially in  part because of opposition to Kinder Morgan. Also the conservatives and liberals will probably split the anti pipeline vote.