Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Njall]

On Elections Saskatchewan's website, they've stated that they are also prepping for by-elections in Swift Current and Melfort.

[Njall]

Melfort and Swift Current are pretty safe Saskatchewan Party seats so should tighten up, but would be a huge shocker if the NDP did win those.

Swift Current is an odd seat because it is an urban seat, and Brad Wall being the Premier has definitely had an effect on the election results there, as he’s actually from Swift Current, having spent his entire life there and having kept living there since he became Premier.

It is very much reminiscent of the Medicine Hat seat that the Alberta NDP won in 2015, where it is federally a strong federal Tory area, but because of its urban characteristics, a provincial win for a left-of-centre party is possible if they are sweeping the province. I don’t think the NDP would win a by-election there, but it could be close and end up being seriously contested in the 2020 general election.

It's only 15,000 people so pretty small, usually NDP only starts winning in cities over 30,000 like Moose Jaw and Prince Albert.  Also the southern parts of Saskatchewan near the US border have always tended to go for parties on the right no matter what.  In some ways their politics is more like North Dakota/Montana than the rest of Saskatchewan.  True the NDP will probably do a lot better in Swift Current and if they had two right wing parties they could win it much like Medicine Hat (I highly doubt the NDP will hold Medicine Hat in 2019, Lethbridge is the only city they might hold as they have the university).

Re: Medicine Hat, the urban riding is disappearing next election, as the city will be split between two “rurban” ridings (Brooks-Medicine Hat and a redrawn Cypress-Medicine Hat), so the NDP certainly won’t be winning here next time.

[Njall]

Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

[Njall]

Brian Jean has resigned his Fort McMurray-Conklin seat. The by-election must be called within six months.

I also just realized that I never posted here when UCP MLA Don MacIntyre resigned his Innisfail-Sylvan Lake seat last month. He resigned after being charged with sexual interference involving a girl under 16.

So, two by-elections in UCP-held seats to be called in the near(-ish) future.

Any likelihood that these two seats have become competitive for anyone but UCP?
In 2015, the NDP sweep:
Fort McMurray-Conklin = PC - 22% WR - 43% (combined into UCP 65%) NDP - 30%
*Jean was party leader so there "might" have been a bump here? But looking at the results in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo's they are about the exact same, so perhaps not.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake   = PC - 28% WR - 42% (Combined into UCP - 70%) NDP - 23%

Whoops, forgot to reply to this earlier.

I expect the UCP to hold both seats. However, the potential for some interesting developments to occur still exists. By-elections in Fort McMurray have quite low turnout even compared to other by-elections, which could lead to a volatile result compared to a general election. For example, the 2014 federal by-election saw the Liberal candidate come within about 10 points of the Conservative in the overall Fort McMurray--Athabasca riding, and I believe he actually won the city of Fort McMurray. For Innisfail--Sylvan Lake, I'll be more interested in the race for second place. The NDP performance even in 2015 wasn't that great, and the Alberta Party (which has gained a decent amount of traction since the formation of the UCP) has over performed there in the past. Running a former Penhold Town Councillor in 2015, the Alberta Party received 6.2% (compared to 2.3% province-wide), and over 10% in areas like Penhold and Springbrook. I could see them getting a double-digit result this time, and potentially finishing ahead of the UCP.

Calgary Elbow is a very wealthy riding and is where the Calgary “old money” lives so its much less likely to go NDP than a hipster place like Mountainview

I think though Calgary-Elbow could stay Alberta Party or would be winneable by the Liberals if they were stronger, but NDP is a bridge too far probably.  Ironically this was Ralph Klein's former riding.

I'm not suggesting it is likely, I'm just saying it is more likely than any currently UCP-held riding.

I'd actually disagree with this. Calgary-Elbow is certainly an "old money" bastion, and they're not averse to voting for centrist candidates, but going NDP would be hugely out-of-character. Looking at the two-party (approximated by combining the PC and WRP votes) UCP-NDP vote share, Calgary-Elbow is the second-strongest UCP riding in Calgary after Calgary-West. I expect Calgary-Elbow to remain with the Alberta Party next election. I honestly can't think of any UCP-held ridings that the NDP could pick up. The closest thing to that, under the new riding boundaries, would be the urban Grande Prairie seat, which I only say because the NDP would have barely won it if the new boundaries existed in 2015.

To the earlier point, I certainly expect the NDP to be competitive in Calgary-Mountain View in the next election, and likely to pick it up. They would have won it in 2015 under the new boundaries.

[Njall]

To the earlier point, I certainly expect the NDP to be competitive in Calgary-Mountain View in the next election, and likely to pick it up. They would have won it in 2015 under the new boundaries.

As it happens, this morning, Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley (the current Calgary-Buffalo MLA) announced that she would be seeking re-election in Calgary-Mountain View in 2019. Finance Minister Joe Ceci, currently MLA for Calgary-Fort (Calgary-Peigan under the new boundaries) will run in Calgary-Buffalo in 2019.

[Njall]

Alberta by-elections update:

The UCP have nominated their candidates for the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge will be the candidate, having beat out three other nomination contestants. She was the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in 2015, and was previously a Wildrose and federal Conservative staffer. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Devin Dreeshen won the six-candidate nomination contest to become the UCP candidate. Dreeshen is on the Board of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers' Association, and is the son of Red Deer--Mountain View MP Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled their nomination contest for Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10th. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is Jane Stroud, Councillor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo's Ward 4, making her the Councillor representing the hamlets of Anzac, Conklin, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Janvier (collective population: around 1000). No news yet on their plans for nominating a candidate in Innisfail Sylvan Lake.

The only news from any other party is that the Reform Party of Alberta (minor fiscal and social conservative party) will be running their Leader, Randy Thorsteinson, in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Thorsteinson was previously leader of the Social Credit Party between 1993 and 1999, and the Alberta Alliance between 2003 and 2005.

The by-elections will likely be held in the early summer.

[Njall]

Though Thorsteinson might tokenly temper the Innisfail-SL UCP-landslide picture, I reckon.

Indeed, especially since he’s run here in the past and has a local profile. At the very least, I expect the combined UCP+Other Conservatives (Reform, etc.) to be at least 65% in both ridings.

[Njall]

Alberta by-elections update:

The UCP have nominated their candidates for the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge will be the candidate, having beat out three other nomination contestants. She was the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in 2015, and was previously a Wildrose and federal Conservative staffer. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Devin Dreeshen won the six-candidate nomination contest to become the UCP candidate. Dreeshen is on the Board of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers' Association, and is the son of Red Deer--Mountain View MP Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled their nomination contest for Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10th. The only declared candidate for the NDP nomination is Jane Stroud, Councillor for the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo's Ward 4, making her the Councillor representing the hamlets of Anzac, Conklin, Gregoire Lake Estates, and Janvier (collective population: around 1000). No news yet on their plans for nominating a candidate in Innisfail Sylvan Lake.

The only news from any other party is that the Reform Party of Alberta (minor fiscal and social conservative party) will be running their Leader, Randy Thorsteinson, in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. Thorsteinson was previously leader of the Social Credit Party between 1993 and 1999, and the Alberta Alliance between 2003 and 2005.

The by-elections will likely be held in the early summer.

As a further update, the NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake for May 25. The presumptive nominee is Nicole Mooney, the Communications and Political Engagement Officer for the union local of the Alberta Teachers' Association representing teachers of the Red Deer Catholic School Board. It also appears that Randy Thorsteinson has withdrawn his candidacy.

[Njall]

Looks like Nanaimo MLA Leonard Krog may resign to run for mayor of the city. If the NDP loses the ensuing by-election, the government would fall

Nanaimo is a rather polarizing but left leaning city. The BC Liberals have a high floor (~30%) but a low ceiling which makes winning the seat  difficult. I wouldn’t be that worried about the NDP losing a potential by election in Nanaimo.

NDP-held since 1963, except two times (1969 and obviously 1999).

Any chance for the Greens to gain enough vote share that they could allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle? I feel like that'd be too much room to make up, but I'm also not super familiar with local politics in that area.

[Njall]

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

[Njall]

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

[Njall]

Provincial by-elections called for July 12 in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta

I talked about the NDP and UCP candidates two pages back.

The Alberta Party has nominated Abigail Douglass, a young communications professional and former President of the students' association at The King's University in Edmonton, as their candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. No Alberta Party candidate has been publicly announced yet for Fort McMurray-Conklin, but I'm told that that should be happening shortly.

The Alberta Greens are also running candidates: Party President Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and 2015 federal candidate Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin.

Of note, the moribund Alberta Liberals have not yet nominated candidates for either riding. If they plan on doing so, nominations must be filed before June 25th at 2:00pm.

I wouldn't expect the NDP to win Fort McMurray-Conklin but I think this by-election could be something of a bellweather for the upcoming provincial election.

It's impossible to say for certain of course, but I think the NDP likely would have won the Fort McMurray ridings in 2015 had then Wildrose Leader Brian Jean not run there.   These more urban ridings  largely went NDP in 2015 (of course the NDP didn't win the more urban Grand Prairie ridings either which are also up north, so that's one reason why it's impossible to say for certain.)

Fort McMurray sometimes has weird swings in by-elections due to low turnout and other local factors, so anything is theoretically possible there. But the UCP certainly are favoured.

Jean's presence likely helped somewhat, although it's interesting to note that the NDP and Liberals essentially performed identically in both Fort Mcmurray ridings in 2015, and Jean only did about 4% better than Tany Yao did in the other riding, with much of that seemingly coming at the expense of the PCs. That said, I doubt the NDP would have won even without Jean on the ballot. Both Fort McMurray and Grande Prairie are much more resource sector-based than southern cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge, or Medicine Hat, and the NDP of 2015 weren't seen as being super friendly to the sector, especially compared to the NDP of 2018*. On that note, and on the bellwether comment, it'll certainly be interesting to see what impact, if anything, Notley's recent actions on Trans Mountain will have up in the heart of oilsands country.

*This statement only applicable to the Alberta NDP

Hrm, the NDP ran as pretty strong pro Oilsands in 2015, so, given the amount of union resource workers I would have expected to do better.

I meant that Jean running in Fort McMurray helped Wildrose in both ridings.

The 2015 view of the NDP not being resource industry-friendly was partially because of confirmation bias on the part of a lot of Albertans, IMO. They certainly weren't hostile while campaigning, but some of their campaign points like angling for a royalty review while oil was beginning its worst downtown of a generation didn't help.

[Njall]

Tomorrow is election day for the two Alberta by-elections! Polls are open from 9am to 8pm. Below are final candidate listings, and the 2015 results for context.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Candidates:
Brian Deheer (GRN)
Sid Fayad (ABP)
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Robin Le Fevre (LIB)
Jane Stroud (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 43.85%
NDP: 30.79%
PC: 22.33%
LIB: 3.03%


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Candidates:
Abigail Douglass (ABP)
Devin Dresden (UCP)
David Inscho (IND)
Nick Jansen (LIB)
Nicole Mooney (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 42.68%
PC: 28.00%
NDP: 23.14%
ABP: 6.19%

[Njall]

Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life, and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump, who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

[Njall]

Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life, and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump, who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

I get the UCP guy even if he was dumb to do it, but how on earth does someone that pro-life get it in their head to run for the NDP?

FWIW, she claims that her views have changed in the four years since then.

[Njall]

With one poll remaining (Fort Fitzgerald, with 2 electors, and didn't have any voters in 2015), looks like the NDP almost held their 2015 support in Fort Mac, but are getting absolutely destroyed in Innisfail.

Indeed, looks like the UCP/Non-UCP split held almost fully steady in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Of note, the turnout in that riding was quite high for a by-election, or indeed, any election in Fort McMurray: 36%, compared to 44% in the 2015 election. For comparison, the by-election turnout in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake was 33%, compared to a 2015 election turnout of 55%.