Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Hatman 🍁]

PCs have held on to Cumberland South. Elections NS isn't showing how many polls remain, so don't know if the results are final.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tory candidate's first name is Tory. Hehe

[adma]

Larry DUCHESNE             NDP                292
Scott LOCKHART              NSLP           1,829
Bruce W. MCCULLOCH      GPNS              235
Tory RUSHTON                PC               3,417

[DC Al Fine]

About an 8% swing from Liberal to Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Results/swings

PC 59.2% (+7.7)
LIB 31.7% (-8.8 )
NDP 5.1% (-0.7)
GRN  4.1%

Swing: PC HOLD (+8.2%)

Turnout: 53.0% (-9.4%)

[Njall]

Tomorrow is election day for the two Alberta by-elections! Polls are open from 9am to 8pm. Below are final candidate listings, and the 2015 results for context.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Candidates:
Brian Deheer (GRN)
Sid Fayad (ABP)
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Robin Le Fevre (LIB)
Jane Stroud (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 43.85%
NDP: 30.79%
PC: 22.33%
LIB: 3.03%


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Candidates:
Abigail Douglass (ABP)
Devin Dresden (UCP)
David Inscho (IND)
Nick Jansen (LIB)
Nicole Mooney (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 42.68%
PC: 28.00%
NDP: 23.14%
ABP: 6.19%

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is election day for the two Alberta by-elections! Polls are open from 9am to 8pm. Below are final candidate listings, and the 2015 results for context.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Candidates:
Brian Deheer (GRN)
Sid Fayad (ABP)
Laila Goodridge (UCP)
Robin Le Fevre (LIB)
Jane Stroud (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 43.85%
NDP: 30.79%
PC: 22.33%
LIB: 3.03%


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Candidates:
Abigail Douglass (ABP)
Devin Dresden (UCP)
David Inscho (IND)
Nick Jansen (LIB)
Nicole Mooney (NDP)

2015 Results:
WRP: 42.68%
PC: 28.00%
NDP: 23.14%
ABP: 6.19%

I think what will be more interesting to watch is do the NDP numbers hold up or do they fall and by how much.  Likewise does the UCP meet or exceed the combined total of WRP and PCs or fall short.  A good night for the UCP is beat the combined total and NDP falls well below what they got lost time.  Good night for NDP is hold or even gain slightly from last time while UCP falls short of combined vote.  The latter is what they need if they want to win next year.

[Njall]

Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life, and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump, who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

[RogueBeaver]

Burnaby: Stewart says there's a good chance Singh runs in the by-election.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life, and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump, who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

I get the UCP guy even if he was dumb to do it, but how on earth does someone that pro-life get it in their head to run for the NDP?

[Njall]

Oh, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Elections Alberta has released the advance vote totals for both ridings. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, it's essentially unchanged from the 2015 election at around 2,850, while in Fort McMurray-Conklin, it's up substantially from 2015, at around 1,100 compared to 700.

Also, an obligatory roundup on candidate dirt/mudslinging:

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Goodridge has been painted as an outsider due to her having run in Grande Prairie in 2015, and having not lived in Fort McMurray for a substantial period of time while doing political work in Edmonton and Ottawa. Goodridge has also drawn flak from indigenous leaders, for a comment suggesting that a potential low voter turnout may allow NDP "special interests" to swing the election. Meanwhile, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad was forced to apologize after a 5-year old Facebook post surfaced where he used the n-word in a comment.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney, who is a Catholic school teacher, drew some unwanted attention when it emerged that she had taken students to the 2014 March for Life, and was quoted as saying "we want to promote among our kids the message that abortion is wrong and that life begins at conception." Meanwhile, it also emerged that UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen spent much of 2016 in the US campaigning for Donald Trump, who has of course now enacted tariffs that are negatively impacting Canadian workers.

I get the UCP guy even if he was dumb to do it, but how on earth does someone that pro-life get it in their head to run for the NDP?

FWIW, she claims that her views have changed in the four years since then.

[mileslunn]

NDP was leading in Fort McMurray-Conklin, but still early.  Also poll 20, Hillview Park, they've changed the numbers a few times, first UCP ahead in that poll, then NDP at 59 to 60, then UCP ahead again so not sure what is going on there.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the UCP will easily win Innisfail-Sylvan Lake.  With 10 of 86 polls reporting and UCP north of 80%, I think we can call this for the UCP.  Fort McMurray-Conklin still too early.  Turns out UCP candidate for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake campaigned for Trump, mind you this is probably a riding that will vote conservative regardless.

[ON Progressive]

16% of polls in and UCP near 70%? Looks like Fort McMurray-Conklin will go UCP, as expected.

[mileslunn]

16% of polls in and UCP near 70%? Looks like Fort McMurray-Conklin will go UCP, as expected.

The first few looked promising for the NDP, but now it looks like an easy UCP win.  Innisfail-Sylvan Lake the UCP might top 80% and NDP could fall to third behind Alberta Party or get in single digits.  It does though look like the Alberta Party not Liberals will be the main party for centrist voters who dislike the two main parties.

[mileslunn]

Looking at Fort McMurray-Conklin numbers, I think it is safe to say the UCP will hold this as well.  Just waiting to see final numbers, but both suggest UCP will exceed combined vote while NDP does worse than 2015.  Mind you by-elections have low turnouts and the demographics most likely to show up tend to lean rightward.

 That being said it must be hard being a progressive in rural areas of the Prairies as it seems parties on the right run up the margins so progressives are very much a minority.  Sure BC interior and rural Ontario, usually vote conservative, but usually parties on the right only get around 50% of the vote so progressives there are not quite as rare a species even if they seldom win seats in those areas.  Mind you being a conservative in downtown Toronto or downtown Montreal are also vastly outnumbered.

[Hatman 🍁]

With one poll remaining (Fort Fitzgerald, with 2 electors, and didn't have any voters in 2015), looks like the NDP almost held their 2015 support in Fort Mac, but are getting absolutely destroyed in Innisfail.

[Njall]

With one poll remaining (Fort Fitzgerald, with 2 electors, and didn't have any voters in 2015), looks like the NDP almost held their 2015 support in Fort Mac, but are getting absolutely destroyed in Innisfail.

Indeed, looks like the UCP/Non-UCP split held almost fully steady in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Of note, the turnout in that riding was quite high for a by-election, or indeed, any election in Fort McMurray: 36%, compared to 44% in the 2015 election. For comparison, the by-election turnout in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake was 33%, compared to a 2015 election turnout of 55%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

Fort McMurray-Conklin
UCP 65.89% (-0.29)
NDP 29.53% (-1.25)
AP 2.75%
ALP 1.10% (-1.93)
GRN 0.73%

Turnout: 35.73% (-8.72)

Swing: UCP notional HOLD (+0.48%)

Interestingly, the # of electors in the riding dropped 4k, most likely due to the wildfires in 2016.


Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
UCP 81.76% (+11.08)
NDP 9.23% (-13.90)
AP 7.42% (+1.23)
ALP 0.95%
IND 0.64%

Turnout: 32.53% (-22.96)

Swing: UCP notional HOLD (+12.49%)

[ON Progressive]

The Fort McMurray result isn't all that bad, but the Innisfail result is awful. I wonder what caused the NDP to tank so hard there.

[lilTommy]

The Fort McMurray result isn't all that bad, but the Innisfail result is awful. I wonder what caused the NDP to tank so hard there.

I wonder if Notley's aggressive push and very public support for Pipelines effectively shorted up the NDP support?

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake - I don't think that's really a surprise is it? since 1997 the combined right vote, the "conservative" vote has been around/over 70%. whether it was PC+Social Credit or Alliance or WR. Breaking 80% is probably also due to this being a by-election and conservatives being more motivated then NDP/Liberals/AP/Green to even bother showing up

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I'm guessing would-be NDP voters stayed home.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, I'm guessing would-be NDP voters stayed home.

Wouldn’t surprise me with the NDP candidate being anti-abortion which surely turned off the already really small NDP base. They weren’t bothered to hold their nose to vote for her since it’s a byelection in a safely UCP seat.

[mileslunn]

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Saint Boniface this Tuesday will probably be an easy NDP hold, but numbers should be interesting.  The polls I've seen shows the PCs have held their support in rural Manitoba, but dropped by double digits in Winnipeg so be interesting to see the numbers even though they have no chance here.  Liberals do well here federally so be interesting if they are able to benefit from unpopularity of provincial PCs and reluctance to return to the NDP who are still too fresh in many people's minds.

The provincial liberals are running their leader here so will be interesting to see how he does.