Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:14:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 17
Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)  (Read 46735 times)
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: January 24, 2018, 03:48:48 PM »

Nothing scheduled so far, but the following seats are vacant:

Provincial:
Kindersley, SK
Melfort, SK
(Swift Current, SK will be vacated soon)


The most recent mainstreet poll gives the Saskatchewan Party a 17 point lead and Angus-Reid also showed an 8 percent jump in Wall's approval rating (This seems to be common for outgoing leaders to help their parties, same happened with Obama had approval ratings in the 40s but jumped to high 50s near the end) so with the current numbers I think SP is pretty safe in these three.  Maybe next year depending on how the new leaders do could change things.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2018, 12:02:57 AM »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2018, 01:59:43 AM »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,806
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2018, 02:06:46 AM »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I don’t think he has a future in politics. I don’t think Roy Moore actually had non-oral penetrative sex with the high school girls he dated. Patrick Brown did.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2018, 02:10:45 AM »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I don’t think he has a future in politics. I don’t think Roy Moore actually had non-oral penetrative sex with the high school girls he dated. Patrick Brown did.

Agree he is probably finished, but certainly he will never become premier.  And he will only ever be able to run if it is actually proven they are false, getting off due to a technicality or reasonable doubt won't be sufficient.  And I think even though the evidence looks quite strong he did this, because the women were drunk there probably is a strong chance he will get acquitted.  I've heard only 3% of sexual assaults result in conviction as our justice system is based on unless something can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, you must acquit so without physical evidence or multiple witnesses it's tough to get a conviction for any crime.  Still even if he never goes to prison, he is damaged goods.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2018, 08:13:55 AM »

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,977
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2018, 09:49:27 AM »

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.

Yup. (See page 1 of this thread)
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2018, 10:22:10 AM »

Cumberland South was until recently a PC stronghold where they usually topped 60% and sometimes even 70%, but in recent elections it has become a lot more competitive so a Liberal pick up is definitely possible especially if they have a strong candidate.  Could also stay PC and in fact the next PC leader is not part of the caucus might be a good riding to run in.

I don't think the timeline will work out. McNeil is likely to call a byelection soon and the Tories haven't even set the rules for the leadership election yet. Thankfully for the Tories, the only serious potential non-caucus candidate is Cecil Clarke, who would have no problem winning a byelection in Cape Breton.

Jamie Baillie has resigned his seat due to his sexual harassment allegations, so we should see a byelection in Cumberland South at some point. Premier McNeil said he won't  wait very long to call it. The seat us historically Tory, but the last result was pretty close for a leader's seat. The Liberals have a decent shot at picking it up.

Yup. (See page 1 of this thread)

D'oh!
Logged
Poirot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,517
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: January 29, 2018, 11:02:51 PM »

People interested in running for the Liberals:
Marc Pettersen, veteran city councillor in Saguenay and was the Liberal candidate in Jonquière in last election.
Claude Bouchard who does industrial development for Promotion Saguenay, the city's economic development agency.
The name of Philippe Gagnon was also mentioned. He is in charge of sports at the university.

Pettersen has decided not to run for the nomination in Chicoutimi. Could be a candidate again in the next general election in Jonquière. He says he wants tol support an unnamed candidate able to block people associated with the previous Saguenay administration (refering to Bouchard I figure).

Marielle Couture could be candidate for the Rhinoceros party. She is a former candidate and the party's Director of rainbows. She wants to abolish the months of February and November to reduce depression.

https://www.lequotidien.com/actualites/marc-pettersen-renonce-9b74a9fb9ef197744e1c3f6fc15024b4
Logged
trebor204
TREBOR204
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 418


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 02, 2018, 07:45:20 PM »

By-elections call for Kindersley, Melfort and Swift Current for March 1st.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/byelections-kindersley-melfort-swift-current-1.4516923
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 02, 2018, 10:22:03 PM »


I suspect with the new premier probably being in the honeymoon phase still and these all strong Saskatchewan Party ridings, SP should hold all three but vote totals will be interesting nonetheless.
Logged
toaster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 352
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 04, 2018, 06:18:49 AM »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I wonder if Ann Hoggarth will try to switch ridings.  She is nominated in Barrie - Innisfil but Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is much more winnable for the Liberals.  It's assumed she didn't choose the latter because the leader of the PCs was the candidate there (in Brown), but with that changed, I could see her switching over.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 04, 2018, 10:09:16 AM »


I suspect with the new premier probably being in the honeymoon phase still and these all strong Saskatchewan Party ridings, SP should hold all three but vote totals will be interesting nonetheless.

The riding of Kindersley has apparently never been held by the NDP, but they've been competitive there at times up to the 1995 election.

Melfort is an interesting riding in that it's one of the ridings that comprised the area of east central rural ridings that used to be known as 'Red Square,' because it was a rural area that was heavily NDP.  Federally this was the Yorkton-Melville riding that New Democrat Lorne Nystrom held for a long time.  The area has changed considerably with the growth of corporate farms and the decline of family farms but the NDP candidate is a throwback, a farmer who serves on the board of the local farmer co-op and the local credit union.

The Swift Current riding generally voted for the party that formed the government until Brad Wall won the riding in 1999 while the NDP was reelected.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 04, 2018, 04:34:05 PM »

I presume in Ontario, a Simcoe North byelection will be pre-empted by the general election ;-)

He is staying on as MPP, so no by-election there.  Nonetheless it will be interesting to see if the PCs choose a new candidate for Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater or not.  Probably better to drop him altogether as this will just dog them in the campaign.  The federal election is in 2019 so by then the case will have gone through the courts and he can always run there although the two Barrie ridings are taken, but maybe Simcoe North will open up again as Bruce Stanton has been there since 2006 and is in his early 60s.

I wonder if Ann Hoggarth will try to switch ridings.  She is nominated in Barrie - Innisfil but Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte is much more winnable for the Liberals.  It's assumed she didn't choose the latter because the leader of the PCs was the candidate there (in Brown), but with that changed, I could see her switching over.

She might although to be fair unless the PCs screw up badly they should win both.  If you had to rank both ridings by winneability, Barrie-Innisfil is probably the PCs 25th strongest while Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater is probably around 35 so even if the PCs only got 40 seats provincewide they would probably win both.  They barely won Barrie-Oro Medonte-Springwater in 2015 and only won 33 seats in Ontario, so the Liberals do have a somewhat better chance there than Barrie-Innisfil, but they need the PCs to implode pretty badly to win either.  In all likelihood with how unpopular Wynne is, I suspect the PCs will probably win over 50 seats no matter what (note they still could lose since if the remaining 74 seats go either heavily NDP or Liberals which if they choose Doug Ford I could see happening, they might lose).
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 15, 2018, 12:04:02 AM »

With 27 of 111 polls reporting and BC Liberals in a solid lead, I think it's fair to say this will be a BC Liberal hold, final numbers should be interesting though. Also BC Conservatives didn't have a candidate last time whereas they do now so that could push BC Liberal vote down a little.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 15, 2018, 12:20:50 AM »

CBC has now called this. No surprise as this is a very safe BC Liberal riding so a BC Liberal win expected. Final numbers will be interesting. At 45 out of 111 polls, NDP and Greens unchanged, BC Liberals down, but likely due to 7 percent voting BC Conservatives who didn't run a candidate in the last election.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 15, 2018, 01:17:14 AM »

With only two polls left to report, looks like not much change from last May, with all the three major parties down slightly and the BC Conservatives who didn't run a candidate up, but doesn't seem to be particularly affecting anyone.  While some may assume all BC Conservatives would go BC Liberals, I am not so sure.  Yes both are on the political right but its silly to add up the sums of two parties and assume everyone who voted for one would go for the other if not available.  Either way this largely confirms the status quo and no suggestions of any party having momentum which is not surprising as its early days in the current government so I suspect not too many votes have shifted since last May.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 15, 2018, 01:20:53 AM »

Final results are as follows:


Total Valid Votes

% of Popular Vote


Kelowna West
  Shelley Cook BC NDP 3,197 23.47%
  Kyle Michael Ernest Geronazzo Libertarian 110 0.81%
Ben Stewart BC Liberal Party 7,692 56.46%
Robert Stupka BC Green Party 1,727 12.68%
Mark Thompson Conservative 898 6.59%
111 of 111 ballot boxes reported 13,624 100%


2017 general election results


v ·
 t ·
 e
   British Columbia general election, 2017


Party

Candidate

Votes

%

±%

 Liberal Christy Clark 15,674 59.05 +0.98
 New Democratic Shelley Cook 6,672 25.14 -5.71
 Green Robert Mellalieu 3,628 13.67 
 Independent Brian Thiesen 570 2.15
Total valid votes 26,544 99.56
Total rejected ballots 117 0.44 –
Turnout 26,661
 Liberal hold Swing +3.34

So it is BC Liberals -2.59, BC NDP -1.67, BC Greens -0.99 so it seems little change and considering BC Conservatives didn't run in the last election it appears it hit each party a little bit but none by much.
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 15, 2018, 02:23:16 AM »

Final results are as follows:


Total Valid Votes

% of Popular Vote


Kelowna West
  Shelley Cook BC NDP 3,197 23.47%
  Kyle Michael Ernest Geronazzo Libertarian 110 0.81%
Ben Stewart BC Liberal Party 7,692 56.46%
Robert Stupka BC Green Party 1,727 12.68%
Mark Thompson Conservative 898 6.59%
111 of 111 ballot boxes reported 13,624 100%

I would have expected the Green Party to do better.
Logged
trebor204
TREBOR204
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 418


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: February 20, 2018, 12:44:37 PM »

Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,977
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: February 20, 2018, 06:55:40 PM »

Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?
Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,806
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: February 20, 2018, 07:42:56 PM »

Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?

They aren't going anywhere with their new leader.
Logged
trebor204
TREBOR204
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 418


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: February 20, 2018, 11:06:11 PM »

Former Manitoba premier Greg Selinger will be stepping down as MLA of St Boniface March 7th.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/greg-selinger-resign-1.4543354


I wonder if the Liberals will target it?

There is a chance that current Liberal leader Dougald Lamont can try and contest the seat.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: March 01, 2018, 10:32:33 PM »

Saskatchewan Party wins all three by landslides. While wins were not surprising size was so looks like Scott Moe getting a honeymoon but should probably diminish over time.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: March 02, 2018, 09:06:00 AM »

Saskatchewan Party wins all three by landslides. While wins were not surprising size was so looks like Scott Moe getting a honeymoon but should probably diminish over time.

The only notable change was Swift Current, ex-Premier Brad Wall's old seat. the Sask Party's popular vote actually went down by almost 10 points (from 82% in the last election to 73%), with the NDP up by that same amount (from 15% to 24%).
Melford - About no change in the results from 2016
Kindsersley - SP blew up to 88% from 68% in 2016, but in 2016 there was the Independent former MLA who stood as a candidate and took about 17%. The NDP had a small bump from 7%-10%


 
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 17  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 12 queries.