Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls closed in Windsor Lake (1/38 polls):

Liberal - 86
PC - 72
NDP - 13

[Hatman 🍁]

Final results:

PC: 42.7% (+22.5)
Lib: 38.1% (-28.2)
NDP: 19.2% (+5.7%)

PC GAIN from Liberal (Swing: 25.3%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Should be an easy CAQ pickup. Remember, the riding used to be Conservative federally. Not that it is a right wing area, but it's proof that it can vote for conservative parties. To me, the riding feels like it goes for a) popular incumbents/candidates and/or b) whatever the flavour of the month is. To me, that means CAQ in this case.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leeds-Grenville by-election called for December 3.

[Hatman 🍁]

One of the few actual 'safe NDP' seats in Atlantic Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of ciriticism out there about Mainstreet's Nanaimo poll, and a lot of it has to do with weighting the under 35 cohort up 7 times; but I do have another theory about it, and it's based on sampling. I'm not sure how they got their sample, but we did a similar internal poll, and the initial sample wasn't geocoded properly to the riding, so we had to manually geocode it. It's possible they didn't take this step and that a large chunk of cases came from outside the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

The sample was not just the city of Nanaimo. I didn't bother to look up what it was exactly, though.

We had a similar issue in the provincial election. Our internal riding polls were much more accurate than the publicly released ones from other firms.