Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

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15 polls
NDP 525
Sask 410
P.C 24
Green 20
Liberal 14
WIP 13

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21 polls
NDP 779
Sask 578
P.C 42
Green 35
Lib 20
WIP 16

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25/48 polls
NDP 927
Sask 659
P.C 45
Green 41
Lib 27
WIP 17

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28 polls
NDP 1,093
Sask 762
P.C 56
Green 49
Liberal 28
WIP 19

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35 polls
NDP 1359
Sask 945
P.C 74
Green 62
Liberal 39
WIP 26

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42 polls
NDP 1,664
Sask 1172
P.C 93
Green 65
Lib 44
WIP 30

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44 polls  Completion of the counting of the vote today.
NDP 1,958
Sask 1,409
P.C 115
Green 77
Liberal 48
WIP 32

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45 polls (1st of 3 advanced polls)
NDP 2,216
Sask 1,646

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46 polls
NDP 2,272
Sask 1,670

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Waiting for the last poll to report for the night. There is an absentee poll that will be added later.  I presume this is a large advanced poll that is still out.

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All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

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All polls in now. Final results:

NDP: 53.9% (+13.3)
SP: 39.2% (-15.4)
PC: 2.9%
GRN: 1.9% (-0.2)
LIB: 1.3% (-1.3)
WIP: 0.7%
 Turnout: 39.9% (-17.9)

NDP GAIN from Saskatchewan Party (avg. 2 party swing: 14.4%)

The absentee vote is still out.

How do you know this? Elections Saskatchewan says 100% of polls are in.

A total of 48 ballot boxes are reported during Preliminary Count on September 12, comprised of 44 regular polls, 3 advance polls and 1 homebound poll. 1 additional poll for absentee votes will be added to the Final Count on September 24, for a total of 49 ballot boxes.

http://results.elections.sk.ca/

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Burnaby South: Grits are thinking about not running a candidate to keep Singh alive for the general.

I find this a ludicrous theory.

First of all, given that it’s just one year to the next election Singh will be the NDP leader regardless of what happens in Burnaby South.

Secondly, in the very unlikely event that the Liberals were to decide not to run a candidate, it would be because they did some polling in the riding a realized they had zero chance and so they would figure that rather than let Singh boast about a big win in the byelection, why not bow out and devalue his win.

Thirdly, if Singh dropped dead tomorrow and the NDP suddenly had to replace him, who would that replacement be that supposedly strikes fear in the hearts of Liberals. Charlie Angus who speaks virtually no French and was a total flop when he ran for leader? Niki Ashton the strident, humorless Socialist Caucus darling? Seriously, if there was someone else who wanted to be leader who had that much potential to cut I to the Liberal vote...that person would be leader right now.

Nathan Cullen.

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30/38 polls
Ches Crosbie 1,245
Paul Antle 1,144
Kerri Claire Neil 634

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Quitto Maggi doesn't have a great track record.

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Looking at the results I would say the following.

The Tories won quite handidly, but this is a fairly safe Conservative riding so that is to be expected.  I would say they had a good showing as up almost 10%, but still got slightly less than they got in 2011 or what they go provincially this past June.

Liberals also had a good night as despite losing badly, they managed to get 35% which in the past quarter of a century, every time they've gotten over 1/3 of the popular vote in this riding they've won a majority while under 30% usually means opposition and under 20% means third place.  So even if they didn't come close to winning and were a bit below their high in 2015, it was still relatively good compared to what they usually get here so the polls showing them in the mid 40s in Ontario make a lot of sense, although the Tory showing suggests they are probably doing a bit better than the low 30s polls suggests.

This has never been an NDP friendly riding, but still 3% is an absolute disaster.  It seems the progressive vote is largely uniting behind the Liberals and NDP is getting squeezed out.  Off course they've had either bad showings like this such as Vaughan in 2010 where they got only 1% yet 6 months later went on to their best showing nationally.  I think Outremont and Burnaby South will be better indicators of where they are.

The NDP candidate in the riding was the same as in the recent provincial election (Michelle Taylor.)  In the provincial election she received 19.8% of the vote.

The provincial results were:
P.C: 61.3%
NDP: 19.8
Liberal 13.4
Green: 4.8
Libertarian: 0.8

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Looks like leftist former NDP MP Svend Robinson is returning to politics, running for the NDP against incumbent Liberal MP Terry Beech in Burnaby North-Seymour. Robinson is known for being vociferously anti-American and anti-Israel.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/svend-robinson-political-comeback-1.4979022

I thought he was mostly known for stealing that ring?

It will be interesting to see the right wing media reaction to this in B.C once Robinson receives the nomination and then as the election comes closer.

If the right wing media reaction is to get on its high horse about this, it provides an interesting contrast with the treatment it gave Christy Clark:

In 2013, the Christy Clark government was involved in the cynical 'quick wins' scandal.

Following the 2017 election it was revealed:
1.the Christy Clark government kept the 'financial dumpster fire' at ICBC under raps, not only from the public, but even from the minister responsible, Todd Stone, as even he only received a redacted report on ICBC's financial situation.

2.The Christy Clark government turned a blind eye to money laundering at B.C casinos that may have reached up to $1 billion a year.

3.Christy Clark cheated to win the B.C Liberal leadership.

While there may not have been anything illegal for what Christy Clark did or did not do in any of these things, this was her 'punishment':

She joined the board of Shaw Communications which, through Corus, owns Global Television (and the right wing Global News) and the right wing CKNW radio.
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On the matter of Christy Clark and byelections, there has been some mention of Christy Clark possibly being made the nominee of the Federal Liberals in the Burnaby South by-election.  This mention, to the degree that it has been picked up in the national media, shows the poor work of those who picked up this 'story.'  It is based on nothing more than the speculation of a columnist for the Georgia Straight, a free weekly paper, named Charlie Smith.  In addition to Smith himself stating that the names on his list were speculation, Smith is something of a nutty conspiracy theorist, so even his speculation needs to be taken with massive amounts of salt.  The wire services and who ever else reported on this really should have made themselves aware of Charlie Smith beforehand.

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https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1086647950481154050

A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

Of course, given the unfortunate way the Gordon Campbell government ended, and the entire tenure of the government of Christy Clark, not having been part of the executive is very likely a major advantage.

He also has a solid resume: Before being elected to the Legislature, Richard was a programmer analyst at TRIUMF, Canada's national particle research facility. In 1976, he earned a Combined Honours Bachelor of Science degree from UBC in physics and mathematics, and in 1980 received a Master of Sciences from UBC in Applied Mathematics. Richard worked at UBC's Department of Mathematics from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, he started working at TRIUMF, and in 1982 became a programmer analyst. Richard attended the United States Particle Accelerator School at Berkeley in 1989 and once again in 1990 at Harvard University.

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A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

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A potentially much stronger candidate than Karen Wang.  Although he was never appointed to cabinet, he rose to deputy speaker and lost by just less than 10% in 2017.  The majority of eligible voters in the Burnaby North federal riding also seem to be in what was his Burnaby North provincial riding, as opposed to the Burnaby-Deer Lake riding that Karen Wang ran in in 2017.

My mistake, this federal riding is Burnaby South.  I don't know if Lee represented any part of this federal riding or if he even lives in the federal riding.  However, he obviously is a long time resident of the city of Burnaby.

A significant of provincial North is in federal South. In fact the borders are simple federally. Burbaby South is all of Burnaby south of the Lougheed Highway.

Thanks for the information!