Alaska

[cinyc]

Alaska actually slightly lost population in 2017, according to the state's estimates. Of the big boroughs/municipalities, only Anchorage-exurban Mat-Su grew. That's the Republican heartland of Alaska. Even Anchorage lost population, and is under 300,000 residents after going above that mark mid-decade.

I don't think Alaskan trends are as good for the Democrats as you think, particularly when you factor in that Alaskan Natives sometimes vote for the incumbent, not necessarily the Democrat.

And no, Alaska isn't one of the more unpredictable states. It's been carried by a Republican at the presidential level every year but the Johnson landslide of 1964.

[cinyc]

After looking at the numbers I agree. Now one big factor is who is driving that Mat-su growth and is it latte liberals from Seattle?

I don’t think so. It’s more likely typical exurban growth out of Anchorage by people looking for cheaper housing.