Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.
It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.
Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.
Anchorage itself comprises about 40% of Alaska's total votes. Here, Democrats usually win the "core" urban areas, while Republicans win the "outer" urban areas.
TML knows his stuff here,,,,
Although I haven't extensively dissect the precinct level results from Alaska in '16, the City of Anchorage, Alaska is "Ground Zero" in any potential Democratic statewide win....
So what will it take for a Dem Pres candidate to win the City, and if so, by what margins???
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