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Poll
Question: Does it trend D in 2020?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Alaska  (Read 1694 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,402


« on: January 08, 2018, 09:49:26 PM »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.
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TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,402


« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2018, 12:37:29 AM »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.

Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.

Anchorage itself comprises about 40% of Alaska's total votes. Here, Democrats usually win the "core" urban areas, while Republicans win the "outer" urban areas.
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TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,402


« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2018, 11:57:19 PM »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.

Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.

Anchorage itself comprises about 40% of Alaska's total votes. Here, Democrats usually win the "core" urban areas, while Republicans win the "outer" urban areas.

TML knows his stuff here,,,,

Although I haven't extensively dissect the precinct level results from Alaska in '16, the City of Anchorage, Alaska is "Ground Zero" in any potential Democratic statewide win....

So what will it take for a Dem Pres candidate to win the City, and if so, by what margins???



In places like NYC, Chicago, and LA, Democrats usually win 80+% of the vote in the downtown areas and other neighborhoods close to the core. That translates to winning not only the city itself, but also the entire county as well as nearby suburban counties.

On the other hand, Democratic winning margins in downtown and midtown Anchorage are much more modest, which allows Republicans to win the outer parts of Anchorage as well as its suburbs.

Back in 2008, Begich won the city of Anchorage (and thus the statewide race overall) thanks to the legal baggage which Stevens was carrying at the time. Other than that, I'm not sure what else it would take for Democrats to win Anchorage overall.
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