MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4

[jamestroll]

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad astrological transits on election night and I have no confirmed birth time. I think she could lose.

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.


The only thing that can be agreed on is that she will not be blanched.

Edit: Looks like auditors contest will be a close call but too early to tell for a lower profile contest. Democrats better hope they can win one of these contests.

[jamestroll]

Cruz by single digits. Yes i did look into that contest.

Tennessee I have not yet.

[jamestroll]

Anyway, I think this race is Tossup/Tilt R, but just like Blunt, McCaskill could be saved by the national environment in the end. There are certain parallels between MO-SEN 2016 and this race (overhyped “rising star” facing off against a weak incumbent).

I totally agree. On one hand the state's partisan lean should give it to Hawley but on the other hand McCaskill is taking this contest seriously. You should see some of her campaign emails .. they sound like they are expecting to lose but can win if they work hard.

McCaskill is more likely to win than Heller. Heller is the most vulnerable incumbent of 2018.

[jamestroll]

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.

Honestly, this might be one of the few remaining states where a Democrat like McCaskill's support could be higher among the oldest voters in a D-friendly midterm than it would be among, say, 45-65 year-olds. This certainly wasn't the case in 2012 but in lower-turnout elections where the most motivated show up, that old residual lean from the 2000s among older voters might reappear.

I am hoping so for sure.

McCaskill does have some residual good will from older voters from her time as state auditor. If we could somehow get heavy youth/black turn out and motivated old school Democrats out she could win.

Shy McCaskill voters.. it is probably a thing.. but I think she will fall short.