MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4

[The Other Castro]

Josh Hawley (R) - 49%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 45%
Undecided - 6%

Trump approval: 50-44 (+6)

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https://www.scribd.com/document/368677853/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-R-for-the-MO-Scout-Jan-2018

[The Other Castro]

There isn't a 2014 MO exit poll as far as I know, so the most recent comparison for demographics is the 2016 exit poll, which had:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 79% White, 14% Black, 7% Other
Party ID: 39% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 27% Independents
Age: 18% 18-29, 16% 30-39, 18% 40-49, 31% 50-64, and 17% 65+

This poll's demographics are:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 87% White, 9% Black, 4% Other
Party ID: 44% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 21% Nonpartisans
Age: 7% 18-29, 12% 30-39, 13% 40-49, 43% 50-69, and 25% 70+

[The Other Castro]

1. Favorite ≠ Safe

2. Some pollsters may be lucky, but not necessarily good. Trafalgar and Remington may have biases that can overlap with aggregate polling errors to create the illusion of accuracy, but a history of success could be undermined as soon as there is a race where the polling error goes in favor of the Democrat. From what I know of these pollsters, they were good when the Republican outperformed expectations, but bad when the Democrat did.