MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:46:57 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4  (Read 4996 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 08, 2018, 02:38:43 PM »

Josh Hawley (R) - 49%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 45%
Undecided - 6%

Trump approval: 50-44 (+6)

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.scribd.com/document/368677853/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-R-for-the-MO-Scout-Jan-2018
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 02:42:07 PM »

Josh Hawley (R) - 49%
Claire McCaskill (D) - 45%
Undecided - 6%

Trump approval: 50-44 (+6)

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.scribd.com/document/368677853/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-R-for-the-MO-Scout-Jan-2018

These Remington polls has been so boring... literally has had the same numbers for 8 months.
Logged
crazy jimmie
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2018, 02:43:19 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2018, 02:48:41 PM by Jimmie »

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad astrological transits on election night and I have no confirmed birth time. I think she could lose.

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.


The only thing that can be agreed on is that she will not be blanched.

Edit: Looks like auditors contest will be a close call but too early to tell for a lower profile contest. Democrats better hope they can win one of these contests.
Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2018, 02:46:25 PM »

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad transits on election night. I think she will lose.

Blanche Lincoln was consistently in the mid 30s at this time in 2010.

McCaskill will have a competitive race.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2018, 03:04:30 PM »

There isn't a 2014 MO exit poll as far as I know, so the most recent comparison for demographics is the 2016 exit poll, which had:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 79% White, 14% Black, 7% Other
Party ID: 39% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 27% Independents
Age: 18% 18-29, 16% 30-39, 18% 40-49, 31% 50-64, and 17% 65+

This poll's demographics are:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 87% White, 9% Black, 4% Other
Party ID: 44% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 21% Nonpartisans
Age: 7% 18-29, 12% 30-39, 13% 40-49, 43% 50-69, and 25% 70+
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2018, 03:18:52 PM »

Yep. McCaskill will come close, but there doesn't seem to be enough Democrats left in the state for her to win.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2018, 03:21:36 PM »

Good sign for Mccaskill as this poll is definitely republican leaning (see Castro's poll)
Logged
King Lear
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2018, 03:22:06 PM »

This proves my Likely R rating for this race, unfortunately their is no realistic scenario where Mcckaskill pulls it out.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2018, 03:27:04 PM »

There isn't a 2014 MO exit poll as far as I know, so the most recent comparison for demographics is the 2016 exit poll, which had:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 79% White, 14% Black, 7% Other
Party ID: 39% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 27% Independents
Age: 18% 18-29, 16% 30-39, 18% 40-49, 31% 50-64, and 17% 65+

This poll's demographics are:

Gender: 53% Female, 47% Male
Race: 87% White, 9% Black, 4% Other
Party ID: 44% Republicans, 35% Democrats, 21% Nonpartisans
Age: 7% 18-29, 12% 30-39, 13% 40-49, 43% 50-69, and 25% 70+

Lol, moving this from Toss-Up to Lean D.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2018, 03:29:17 PM »

Wow, solid base for C-Mac. Looks like a few phone calls to Sloppy Steve will do the trick here. Tilt D.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2018, 03:35:26 PM »

With this pollster’s well known lean, indicates what we all suspect: a Tossup race
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,730


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2018, 03:41:57 PM »

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,730


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2018, 03:50:16 PM »

By my calculations, Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% (by the most conservative estimations possible) in this poll when this poll is broken down by demographics and put back together with demographics that are more reflective of the likely vote in 2018.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2018, 03:54:46 PM »

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2018, 03:57:47 PM »

I don't foresee 2018 being substantially whiter than 2016. Virginia and Alabama should be proof of that.
Logged
cvparty
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 08, 2018, 03:58:35 PM »

This proves my Likely R rating for this race, unfortunately their is no realistic scenario where Mcckaskill pulls it out.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 08, 2018, 04:09:01 PM »

Considerably good results for McCaskill considering the demographic makeup of the poll was arranged to favor Hawley. If anything, this poll does a good job at showing McCaskill's floor, which is what is most important to be looking at this early.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 08, 2018, 04:13:41 PM »

Also a strong sign for McCaskill is that even with a favorable sample, Trump is only at +6 approval.

Missouri is a fairly evenly divided swing state (2016 electorate was only R+5) but Trump is a strong fit for the state, so this number is something.
Logged
Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2018, 04:19:08 PM »

She is stuck at 45%.

McCaskill has several bad astrological transits on election night and I have no confirmed birth time. I think she could lose.

Now I doubt 25% of the electorate will be 70+ in 2018 midterms. There may be a slight biased against McCaskill in this poll.


The only thing that can be agreed on is that she will not be blanched.

Edit: Looks like auditors contest will be a close call but too early to tell for a lower profile contest. Democrats better hope they can win one of these contests.

Bruh what you’re doin is actually pretty chill. Like it’s interesting asf. Could you do the Cruz vs O’Rourke race? Maybe Bredesen vs Blackburn?

But with the actual MO Senate race, I think Hawley wins this. I believe it’ll be a democratic wave year but I think it’ll be close in Missouri.
Logged
crazy jimmie
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2018, 04:26:54 PM »

Cruz by single digits. Yes i did look into that contest.

Tennessee I have not yet.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2018, 04:28:20 PM »

Great poll!
Logged
Hoosier_Nick
Nicholas_Roberts
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 754
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.03, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2018, 05:03:44 PM »

Agreed with everyone who says it's still a toss-up. Looking at the demographics, this is about where I'd expect this race to be.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,099
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2018, 06:33:38 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2018, 06:36:19 PM by Devout Centrist »

I can guarantee you that McCaskill will lose if the electorate is 87% white.

However, if it’s in the low 80’s, she has a good shot. Anything below 80 and I’d be pretty optimistic about her chances.

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
Trafalgar.jpg
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2018, 07:09:02 PM »

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2018, 07:18:57 PM »

1. Favorite ≠ Safe

2. Some pollsters may be lucky, but not necessarily good. Trafalgar and Remington may have biases that can overlap with aggregate polling errors to create the illusion of accuracy, but a history of success could be undermined as soon as there is a race where the polling error goes in favor of the Democrat. From what I know of these pollsters, they were good when the Republican outperformed expectations, but bad when the Democrat did.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.