MO-Remington Research (R): Hawley +4

[Devout Centrist]

I'm very skeptical of using historical performance to rate a poll's accuracy. The only exception I'll make is for Selzer. They seem to nail the results in Iowa.

[junior chįmp]

By Election day 2018, the economy will be in the tank and several indictments will be issued by Mueller.... absolutely absurd to write this race off now considering how much of a boring stiff Hawley is (who btw was begging for Bannons endorsement months ago lol)

[IceSpear]

This proves my Likely R rating for this race, unfortunately their is no realistic scenario where Mcckaskill pulls it out.

A 4 point lead by a Republican leaning pollster 10 months before the election is enough to convince you, huh?

[Cactus Jack]

This proves my Likely R rating for this race, unfortunately their is no realistic scenario where Mcckaskill pulls it out.

Once again we see Lear's stunning IQ.

Anyway, it's awful news for Hawley when he can't even crack 50% in a crap Republican poll, and it just reinforces my theory that he's a terrible candidate. Akin was doing miles better than this before his career-ending gaffe.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sh!t, if only McCaskill was a little less left, and not such a champion for planned parenthood, she would probably be leading Hawley anywhere from 2-5 points right now. Hawley 4+ sounds about right at this time.

[136or142]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

I'd say Tilt D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

I'd say Tilt D.

Fair enough.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

Look at the prediction link in Solid's sig

[jamestroll]

Anyway, I think this race is Tossup/Tilt R, but just like Blunt, McCaskill could be saved by the national environment in the end. There are certain parallels between MO-SEN 2016 and this race (overhyped “rising star” facing off against a weak incumbent).

I totally agree. On one hand the state's partisan lean should give it to Hawley but on the other hand McCaskill is taking this contest seriously. You should see some of her campaign emails .. they sound like they are expecting to lose but can win if they work hard.

McCaskill is more likely to win than Heller. Heller is the most vulnerable incumbent of 2018.

[Blackacre]

Still a tossup. But Im glad to see we're actually getting Senate polling now

[Skye]

I could see McCaskill winning if Trump's approvals continue to be this bad. However, I still believe she's the underdog.

Now, if she could find herself another Todd Akin...

[Kamala]

I could see McCaskill winning if Trump's approvals continue to be this bad. However, I still believe she's the underdog.

Now, if she could find herself another Todd Akin...

She should do a reverse-Akin and support Hawley in the primary and make him seem like "McCaskill's Hand-Picked Opponent" or something and then have someone like Peterson win the primary.

[Sestak]

I could see McCaskill winning if Trump's approvals continue to be this bad. However, I still believe she's the underdog.

Now, if she could find herself another Todd Akin...

She should do a reverse-Akin and support Hawley in the primary and make him seem like "McCaskill's Hand-Picked Opponent" or something and then have someone like Peterson win the primary.

Peterson's not really an Akin though.

(But he may be slightly weaker than Hawley)

[TheSaint250]

It is impossible to look at Castros analysis + this poll + the national environment and not conclude that this shows McCaskill as a clear favorite.

This poll performed well in the 2016 Senate Race ( https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250717.0) and any poll with a positive Trump approval is bad for McCaskill. She's not doomed, but taking a poll showing her trailing as further justification for your Safe D rating  (which should mean she'll win even if everything that could possibly go wrong does) makes little sense.

Dude, no one here thinks this is safe D LOL. Tilt R, still winnable for McCaskill though.

Solid does

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Courtland Sykes would be another Todd Akin.

[henster]

Kander/Koster both got around 46% in '16 and thats probably the Dem ceiling these days in MO. I'd say Hawley wins 53-46.

[King Lear]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

Okay, this is ridiculous. Now I know why LimoLiberal stopped being a republican shill, he just got you to do it instead.

[LimoLiberal]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

How did Jason Kander do it?

[Skye]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

Jason Kander tho

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

I predict that you have a brain tumor.

[IceSpear]

Kander/Koster both got around 46% in '16 and thats probably the Dem ceiling these days in MO. I'd say Hawley wins 53-46.

Had the top of the ticket not completely collapsed, Kander probably would've won.

[Xing]

So a Republican pollster shows her down by 4, 10 months out? Clearly Likely/Safe R.

I won't be shocked if McCaskill loses, but I think it's fair to call this race a Toss-Up, at this point. If Hawley ends up being a weaker candidate than expected, it's not hard to see how he blows it.

[Sestak]

My prediction is that Josh Hawley wins 57-42, I don't think any Democrats can come within single-digits of winning Missouri due to partisan polarization.

Lol wut?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016 (against an incumbent Republican)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_gubernatorial_election,_2016