How will Kansas trend in 2020?

[Bea O'Problem]

How will Kansas trend in 2020?

[Dr. MB]

Kansas is going the opposite direction of its neighbor to the east.

[Bismarck]

Slightly R but probably not strongly either way. Trump did bad in Johnson County in 2016,i don’t think that means the state is going to trend D now.

[Bea O'Problem]

Slightly R but probably not strongly either way. Trump did bad in Johnson County in 2016,i don’t think that means the state is going to trend D now.

Really? I think Kansas slightly trends D.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I think Kansas trends at least slight D a bit, mostly due to the Dem winning Johnson, Shawnee, and/or Riley counties.

[Bea O'Problem]

I think Kansas trends at least slight D a bit, mostly due to the Dem winning Johnson, Shawnee, and/or Riley counties.

[MT Treasurer]

Almost certainly D. Clinton was an absolutely terrible fit for the state, and Democrats have a lot of room for growth in places like Wyandotte, Shawnee, Sedgwick and Johnson County. The rural areas might also swing a bit D.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Almost certainly D. Clinton was an absolutely terrible fit for the state, and Democrats have a lot of room for growth in places like Wyandotte, Shawnee, Sedgwick and Johnson County. The rural areas might also swing a bit D.

If she was such a terrible fit why did it swing towards her???

[dw93]

Almost certainly D. Clinton was an absolutely terrible fit for the state, and Democrats have a lot of room for growth in places like Wyandotte, Shawnee, Sedgwick and Johnson County. The rural areas might also swing a bit D.

If she was such a terrible fit why did it swing towards her???

Donald John Trump

[bagelman]

Could trend R in a D landslide.

[un]

A tiny bit D, mostly due to Johnson County.

[smoltchanov]

A tiny bit D, mostly due to Johnson County.

+1. Johnson county moved to moderate (some - even relatively liberal) Republicans in 2016 as a first step in this direction. But with time some of such districts will elect Democrats...

[Cokeland Saxton]

I don't think it's going to trend D anytime soon. yes, Johnson County is going D, but think about Sedgwick, Douglas, Shawnee, Wyandotte, Leavenworth, Riley, Butler, and Reno Counties, which all have at least 50,000 people each.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Most likely R. 2016 was an anomaly, especially with similar states like Nebraska and Oklahoma trending R. I suspect Brownback's unpopularity and the fact that Kansas strongly favored Cruz over Trump may have played a role. The GOP brand should be recuperated in Kansas by 2020 and Trump can make them happy just by touting Gorsuch and tax cuts

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Most likely R. 2016 was an anomaly, especially with similar states like Nebraska and Oklahoma trending R. I suspect Brownback's unpopularity and the fact that Kansas strongly favored Cruz over Trump may have played a role. The GOP brand should be recuperated in Kansas by 2020 and Trump can make them happy just by touting Gorsuch and tax cuts

>Tax cuts will make them happy
> It mostly trended D because of dissatisfaction with Brownback
> that dissatisfaction mostly comes from Brownback's tax cuts wrecking the state economy

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Most likely R. 2016 was an anomaly, especially with similar states like Nebraska and Oklahoma trending R. I suspect Brownback's unpopularity and the fact that Kansas strongly favored Cruz over Trump may have played a role. The GOP brand should be recuperated in Kansas by 2020 and Trump can make them happy just by touting Gorsuch and tax cuts

>Tax cuts will make them happy
> It mostly trended D because of dissatisfaction with Brownback
> that dissatisfaction mostly comes from Brownback's tax cuts wrecking the state economy

Brownback bankrupted the state. That's not happening on a national level. The economy is doing well under Trump, so they're not at all the same.

[Nyssus]

I think Kansas trends at least slight D a bit, mostly due to the Dem winning Johnson, Shawnee, and/or Riley counties.

[Thunder98]

Trend D, mostly from Urban and Suburban counties. Trump probably wins KS by 10-15%.

[andjey]

I think Kansas trends at least slight D a bit, mostly due to the Dem winning Johnson, Shawnee, and/or Riley counties.

[brucejoel99]

I think Kansas trends at least slight D a bit, mostly due to the Dem winning Johnson, Shawnee, and/or Riley counties.

[NCJeff]

Trend D, mostly from Urban and Suburban counties. Trump probably wins KS by 10-15%.

That would actually be a pretty remarkable outcome (though I think it's plausible).  Consider that in 2004, Bush won about 60% or so of the vote in every state from Texas to North Dakota, but won narrower margins in Missouri and Arkansas.

In this scenario, Kansas and Texas are probably splitting away and becoming more Colorado-esque.  It would imply that even if Kansas can't be gotten at the presidential level, democrats need to organize the state to put Senate seats in play (a la Montana).

[Skye]

Probably D, but maybe not that much.

[The3rdParty]

Trends D because of moderate suburban voters that voted for Gary Johnson or others converting into dems. The Dems will probably get in the low 40's but the state won't be won unless the environment is like D+15 which id doubt will happen. It shouldn't be a priority for the dems for quite some time, it might flip in 2028 or 2032 in a dem landslide.

[pppolitics]

What's the Matter with Kansas?

[Wazza]

Most likely R. 2016 was an anomaly, especially with similar states like Nebraska and Oklahoma trending R. I suspect Brownback's unpopularity and the fact that Kansas strongly favored Cruz over Trump may have played a role. The GOP brand should be recuperated in Kansas by 2020 and Trump can make them happy just by touting Gorsuch and tax cuts

I agree with this, Kansas' trend was probably due to Brownback and to a lesser extend Cruzites. It's trend was very out of place comparing to the other farm belt states like Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma.