PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (user search)
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 200421 times)
Smash255
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« on: March 10, 2018, 09:20:10 PM »

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.



The Allegheny portion was just under 43% of the 2016 Presidential vote in the district
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Smash255
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Posts: 15,450


« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2018, 08:12:30 PM »

Am i misthinking, or is this race the most concerning for Republicans. Doug Jones winning in Alabama was crazy, but this is a coal district and the numbers have been trending Lamb and the momentum isnt slowing. If this works out, and it looks like it will, a blue dog democrat revival in the rust belt could be underway.

Hard to say.  While there are strong coal ties in the district, the district is more white collar than what most people think.  If Lamb wins it will almost certainly be because he torched Saccone in the white collar well-educated inner suburbs.  The blue collar coal regions will likely swing as well and will have some impact, but this could also be viewed as more evidence of the absolute collapse of the GOP with well educated suburbanites.
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