PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Holmes]

IceSpear, before you start calling results months before an election again, may I just remind you of Alabama.

I didn't call it, actually. I changed my rating from Safe R to Lean R.

Hmm.

[Holmes]

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

[Holmes]

I would agree on not investing too much emotional energy but it's worth keeping an eye on due to Republicans quickly and forcefully injecting themselves into this election. Might not be because this seat is vulnerable, or maybe it is, but it could be to try to halt movement against them elsewhere outside this district.

It's also possible that they want a big win considering their embarrassing string of losses since Virginia. A good margin for Saccone could be trumpeted by the GOP as counter-evidence to the wave.

Literally nobody will care about this besides this forum and Politico columnists though.

Potential Big Donors might care though....

Maybe but Republicans will always have their precious donors either way, so moot point.

[Holmes]

Interesting, and a bit early too. I would've expected him to visit a bit closer to the election date. They must be sweating though.

[Holmes]

Big coal mine in Greene County is shutting down 370 people to be laid off, should be an issue Dems talk about.

http://www.post-gazette.com/business/career-workplace/2018/01/03/Mepco-Greene-County-coal-mine-layoffs-Morgantown-West-Virginia/stories/201801030235

191 workers are being let go a week and a half before the special, and they weren't even unionized. Lamb should pounce on this.

[Holmes]

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

[Holmes]

The thing is, you run ads showing Trump promising to bring these jobs back on the backdrop of this mine closure. Then what? Lamb promises to bring the jobs back? Why would voters believe him after just being burned? henster is right in that the focus should be on bringing in new industries and tech to the area but would the people who live there even want that?

That's exactly the problem: they want jobs, but not ANY jobs, if i understood correctly. They don't want to undergo retraining, and then - be employed in "green technologies" or IT area. They want COAL jobs, they are accustomed to, and they already have enough skills to do (right now). Who can give them THAT?

No one. The world is changing. If they don't want to change with it, they will be left behind or be forced to move away.

[Holmes]

Yeah, something is up. Republicans are making their panic a bit too obvious. Worth keeping an eye on.

[Holmes]

Lamb released his first TV ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/953991405353013248

[Holmes]

I have just googled "Conor Lamb" (I didn't even know that PA-18 has a special election soon) and he looks like a Democratic Mike Naso.

Not at all.

[Holmes]

Conor Lamb is the most beautiful Catholic in the history of Pennsylvania politics. I have not been this excited about a candidate in years!

Beautiful Flawless Lambchop

[Holmes]

This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

[Holmes]

This race must be so frustrating for Republicans. The Democratic candidate is young, good looking, a veteran and goes around speaking to voters wearing his inoffensive Steelers jacket and talking about how both parties and all leadership is bad. Whereas Republicans have..... some old guy who's a total leadership kiss ass and has no charisma or fundraising skills whatsoever.

Eh, it doesn't really matter. Saccone should have a fairly easy time winning anyways.

Sure, the district is definitely more Republican-leaning than anything, but what I'm saying is that they probably dislike having to spend so much and get so involved defending a seat they really shouldn't be needing to defend.

[Holmes]

Barletta is going to lose by 15 points if those Casey #s are even close to accurate.

Until the NRSC or a Barletta internal shows him trailing. Then he'll be FINISHED. lol

Lol, just as you say that....


https://twitter.com/chrisjdmartin/status/955543307639123971


NRCC guy frantically tries to dispel the poll.

It's weird that he brings up public polling when afaik Gravis is the only pollster who's released a public poll?

[Holmes]

I wonder if a non-partisan map could actually make this district less competitive. Worth keeping an eye on because the special will be under current lines, so if Lamb does win...

[Holmes]

Lamb's got a new ad.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ConorLambPA/status/955630664426119169

Has the Saccone campaign released anything yet?

[Holmes]

Saccone is such an awful candidate lol. Would be hilarious if the GOP manages to sh*t the bed here too.

Trump will be bragging about how the Democratic party is now 0-6 in congressional races, even if Saccone wins by 1 point in a R+11 district.

Interesting how he doesn't include CA-34.

[Holmes]

I have a feeling this will become the most expensive House race in history...

GA-06 was not even a year ago.

[Holmes]

Democrats will pick this seat up.

From your lips to God's ears.

[Holmes]

They're both Appalachia but SWVA is more Southern Appalachia and SWPA is more Midwestern Appalachia. And isn't PA-18 more urban? Suburbs make up a sizable share of the district.

[Holmes]

Another fantastic ad by the Lamb campaign. This guy is really authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4syLKd2Rts

Pretty good, but he has to train himself not to steal little glances at the camera when he's doing a ubiquitous "intimate conversation with someone in his living room" advertisement.

My biggest complaint of course is the utter lack of recorder music. What were they thinking?

Didn't notice it at first. Were you lost in Beautiful Flawless Lamb's eyes?

[Holmes]

He just warned people not to go off topic. It's not that serious.

[Holmes]

Is Lamb accepting SuperPAC money?

[Holmes]

The difference between the candidates' social media presence is funny. Not even the fact that Lamb has 10x the followers, but Saccone's just tweeting how wage increases for CVS and Chipotle are so good for PA-18 (lol) whereas Lamb's talking health care, social security, engaging with voters.

Saccone is horrible.

[Holmes]

On the other hand, Biden's going to do a rally too.