PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[NOVA Green]

I'm phonebanking right now but nobody is answering.

Limo Lib in the words the Great and Late Janis Joplin:

"Mercedes Benz"

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends.
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?
Dialing For Dollars is trying to find me.
I wait for delivery each day until three,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a color TV ?

Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?
I'm counting on you, Lord, please don't let me down.
Prove that you love me and buy the next round,
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a night on the town ?

Everybody!
Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
My friends all drive Porsches, I must make amends,
Worked hard all my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz ?

Are you calling at Supper Time perchance?

Two Grandparents (Now deceased) from PA, and they would never answer the phone during certain times....

SW PA CD-18 has an extremely high percentage of older voters where certain family traditions are slightly different than that of many large Metro Areas elsewhere, and not everyone is glued to a cellphone to their hip.

Plus I suspect many of these voters are sick and tired of getting called multiple times a week, and will just do their own thing without any help from polling organizations and the mass media....

Direct Mail and Door to Door contact from locals and friends and neighbors are actually much more effective in districts like this than phone banking (Although I appreciate your time and effort sir).

This is one of those districts where I suspect traditional polling techniques will give us little data from the bird entrails from that arcane science known only to the chosen few.

[NOVA Green]

College graduates were 50% of the electorate in 2016 nationally, and this district is more educated than the nation as a whole, so I don't understand why Cohn thinks it's so funny for 60% to be in this race (especially when coupled with college graduates being disproportionately represented in low-turnout contests)...?

Unless he thinks that age will be a much stronger factor than education (presumably a large percentage of 55+ in this district are not college graduates), I'm not seeing what's so wrong with that figure.

Because people think we're just a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers . I honestly now understand the frustration of some Trump voters.

You're definitely not a bunch of dumbass blue-collar workers, but you're certainly not 60% college educated.

We are higher than the national average, and it's just one poll. College educated voters turnout more often. I'm tired that privileged white guys like Nate Cohn are so far up their asshole that they can't believe that we, in fact, aren't as dumb as a bag of rocks like they originally thought.

Census says 37%, with it being a special election I could see that number get close to around 50%.

Definitions of "College Educated" can get a bit murky, depending upon what standards one uses, but it does appear the CD-18 is more educated in terms of attainment than PA as a whole, with 44% of the population >25 having an advanced degree beyond a HS Diploma...



There are several things to consider here:

1.) Many Working Class / Blue Collar Occupations now require some type of vocational education (Nurses, Law Enforcement, Teachers, Electricians, etc....), so the 44% of College Educated population in this district seems reasonable, especially considering the relative size and composition of the Health Care sector within what is a CD that is older than the population of PA (18% 65+ and 41% 50+  within this district!!!!).



2.) This 44% does not include the "some College" category....

3.) As a followup to point # 2, educational attainment is one of those items where people frequently tend to fudge the data a bit when it comes to election polling, since many people consider themselves college educated if they have taken some various classes at community colleges/ online professional certifications, etc..., and certainly Voc-Ed for many working class folks that don't have a history of four year Diplomas in their family is one major way to move ahead into a better paying job, especially when you start rolling into your '30s with things like kids, mortages, etc....

4.) So regardless of how this particular poll used an LV/RV screening model for turnout in a Special Election, it would not be unreasonable to see 50% of voters in this district consider themselves College Educated...

5.) Who knows that turnout will look like in this election, but it would certainly be interesting once we have the precinct results, or if someone can run the Pres results from '16 by township against Educational Attainment (Maps too large for me to snip on my laptop) to see if there are any correlations.

https://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Pennsylvania/District-18/Educational-Attainment#data-map/county-subdivision

6.) Completely anecdotal and OT but I live in a Factory town in "downstate Oregon" and a Trump '16 County, which used to have a major United Steelworkers of America presence (USW), until the workers went out on strike against their employer trying to gut their medical plan. The employer shuttered the plant and shifted operations another plant they had in PA (Not sure offhand where) and interestingly enough I haven't heard much talk at all about Trump's Steel/Aluminum Tariff plan around here. Wildcard how and if this will play in PA-18 among those older locals that actually stuck around after the Steel Industry collapsed in SW PA in areas around McKeesport and the like.

I have absolutely no interest in attempting to skew/unskew any polls on this wildcard election, in what to me looks like it will be a jump ballgame that could easily go either way, just wanted to throw out some data on educational attainment, and yeah it looks like Nate Cohn might be barking up the wrong tree a bit on focusing on the educational attainment aspect of this poll....

[NOVA Green]

Brutal ad hitting Saccone on opioids with his own words

Conor Lamb is amazing. I really really really hope he wins this race. I know he will challenge Rothfus, win or lose, but winning this race will make the election in the 17th easier for him. I want him to be our Senator one day.

WOW!!!! 

Likely an ad with a powerful local impact, and additional portable/transferable to other WWC Blue Collar Trump districts throughout the US, since these types of statement expose the hypocrisy of many House 'Pubs when it comes to substance abuse issues, that disproportionately impacts working class Americans in both Democratic and Republican districts of all races, ethnic backgrounds and regions.

This is "Deer Hunter" Country....

For many of y'all not familiar with the reference it is about one of the first Movies about Vietnam starring Robert DeNiro set in Western PA (Clairton which if it isn't in CD-18 is right over the CD line) involving a close-knit group of young Steel Workers, and this part of PA has one of the highest % of Vietnam Vets of just about anywhere in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Deer_Hunter

Heroin/Opium addiction first started to hit critical mass in the US as Vietnam Vets came home from the war, after having been exposed or used Opiates to numb themselves from the horrors of war and PTSD upon their return home from the war.

It is not coincidental that Opiate addiction in the US has ticked up dramatically in recent years in regions where there were historically some of the largest concentrations of Vietnam Vets.

To close up, here is a song that I own written by John Prine, but here performed by Johnny Cash that talks about Vietnam Vets and Heroin addiction, and I encourage any of y'all that like what you heard to spend the money to buy this song on whatever platform you currently use for music...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fc2j38Ab4&list=RDz-fc2j38Ab4

Absolutely no question in my mind that this ad will hit home, especially among the older voters in the district that have been hard hit by Opiate addictions over the past 50 years from 'Nam to the present day.

[NOVA Green]

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.

The only really solidly Dem stronghold within the Allegheny portion of the district is Mount Lebanon Township (13% of the CD-18 vote within Allegheny) which went (61-34) HRC in 2016.

Scott Township (5% of Allegheny CD-18 vote 2016) is a Lean Dem place that went (52-44 HRC) in 2016...

Really the battles for a large win the Allegheny County portion of the district for Lamb will involve a double digit win in marginal Trump parts of Allegheny (Bethel Park, Moon, South Fayette, Upton St Clair, Whitehall, etc).

If Lamb is really polling within +/- a few points from the 'Pub he will also need to keep 'Pub margins down to 10-15% in Washington County, and although I haven't crunched the precinct numbers for the CD-18 portion of the County, overall the County was 35-60 Trump in '16, but 42-56 Romney in '12, and 47-52 Obama in '08....

Greene County will be interesting to see if a large number of Obama '08 voters come home to Lamb in '18.... County was virtually tied in '08, swung hard Romney in '12 (40-58 R), and in 2016       
(28-68 R) R.

Personally, I think Greene County will stick with any 'Pub (Even against local relatively popular Dem candidates) so long as Trump is President....

Not so sure on Westmoreland yet, since I haven't really had a chance to look closer at the County and which parts of the County fall within which CDs, etc....

Still, I believe the election will be won or lost for the Dem candidate based upon a combination of the raw vote margins out of the Allegheny portion of the district, combined with the extent of the swings in Washington County.

One item to note regarding these special elections, is that just as we observed in AL-SEN '17 election, is that the race was won as a result of a combination of:

1.) High levels of Dem turnout in their base areas
2.) Depressed Pub turnout in their base areas
3.) Cross-Over voters in Middle and Upper Middle-Class White precincts and municipalities in close proximity to the larger Metro areas of the State, as well as older retirees along the Gulf Coast

The wildcard here is to what if any extent is this election nationalized in terms of Tribal voting patterns, and *HOW* that might play out if this is the case....

Trump's policy announcement on Steel Tariffs might well be enough to push the 'Pub over the finish line and show skeptical former Steelworkers that he isn't afraid to buck the Neo-Liberal Republican economic agenda on Trade Policy, even as elsewhere in WWC America Trump's popularity is fading fast.

It is interesting to note that the two special elections where Trump got involved includes two of the major historical Steel Production centers of the United States (Birmingham Alabama and Pittsburgh PA).... in the case of the former, Trump's vote share collapsed even among the heavily White precincts of Bessemer Alabama (Major Steel working Town 25 Miles from Birmingham).

Anyways hope to be back and post some municipal level numbers based on precinct data before Tuesday's election to see what the tea leaves might tell us based upon historical data....

[NOVA Green]

Trump is currently speaking in Moon Township, Pennsylvania...

2016 Results:

5589 HRC   (42.7%)   6894 DJT   (52.7%)   8.1% of Allegheny County CD-18 2016 Pres Votes

[NOVA Green]

So what is the most Democratic part of this district so I can know when to throw in the towel or celebrate ?

I just started looking through some of the precinct data for the district, but I would imagine Lamb will have to perform extremely well in Allegheny County to offset Republican votes in heavily Republican parts of the district.

My ballpark math is that Allegheny County areas within CD-18 might have accounted for 35% of the district vote in 2016 and went 46-49 Trump.

The Allegheny portion was just under 43% of the 2016 Presidential vote in the district

Thanks Smash255!!!!

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to pull together a comprehensive precinct data set for this district yet, but so was a bit conservative on my estimated numbers for Allegheny County '16 Pres numbers as a % of the total CD vote....

[NOVA Green]

So I decided to spend a little bit of time looking at precinct level data for the Allegheny County portion of the district to see what if anything it might tell us about the upcoming Special Election....

For starters, here is overall how the CD-18 section of the County voted in US PRES elections between 2008 and 2016.

Thanks to Oryxslayer for posting the data from '08 a few pages back!!!



So apologies for restating the obvious to many of us, but the historically Democratic Parts of the district are not actually located within Allegheny County, which has actually been gradually shifting slightly towards the Democratic Party over the past decade, even as Washington and Greene Counties have been swinging hard Republican.

Where are the voters located within South Allegheny CD-18?

Because there are so many municipal jurisdictions in this heavily suburban/exurban area, and diffuse concentration of voters, I had to consolidate places with less than 3% into the "Other" category, but at least include over 80% of the voters into discrete subcategories....



So in order of voting population:

1.) Mt Lebanon--- 12.7%
2.) Bethel Park- 12.0%
3.) Moon-  8.1%
4.) Upper St Clair--- 7.6%
5.) Scott--- 5.4%
6.) S. Fayette- 5.1%
7.) Whitehall--- 4.9%
8.) South Park-- 4.6%
9.) Elizabeth Twp--- 4.4%
10.) N. Fayette--- 4.2%
11.) Robinson--- 4.2%
12.) Jefferson HL--- 3.9%
13.) Pleasant HL--- 3.0%
14.) Collier--- 3.0%

We'll be getting back to some of these places in more detail shortly....

How did these places vote in the 2016 Presidential Election?



Now let's take a look at these same places in the 2012 Presidential Election....



NOW---- Where and what were the swings within South Allegheny (CD-18) between 2012 and 2016???



So, interestingly enough pretty much almost all of the larger population centers within the County swung against Donald Trump with roughly 20% swings in Mt Lebanon and Upton St Clair....

Now, as we have seen before even in areas that swung +20% Dem between '12 and '16, there is still further room for collapse, meaning that considering Trump's decreased approval ratings over the past year, it is entirely plausible that we could see even more significant swings towards a local Centrist Dem candidate in some of these suburban/exurban South Allegheny political jurisdictions....

Ok--- time to dig a bit further into the weeds of South Allegheny CD-18  and check out some of the Social Demographics for various communities within the district....

1.) Mount Lebanon Township---- Pop 33k--- MHI $ 76.0k/Yr--- 91% White--- 68% Degree > HS---
 2016 Pres (61-34 D)

Occupation sectors heavily concentrated in Professional and Management....



Needless to say, we will likely see extremely high turnout here on Tuesday, as well as likely increased swings beyond the 2016 (61-34 D) numbers from the 2012 (53-46 D) numbers.

2.) Bethel Park--- Pop 32.3k--- MHI $ 69.3k/Yr--- 95% White--- 53% Degree > HS    2016 (43-52 R)



This is obviously a must win and must win by +10% City for Lamb, since if recent polls of the CD are to believed Trump is sitting at only about 50% Fav ratings (+3-4%), it's places like this where his support likely slumped more so than in other areas....

3.) Moon Township--- Pop 24.6k--- MHI $ 67.2k/Yr--- 89% White--- 53% Degree > HS, 2016---
 (43-53 R)

Occupations...



So despite the household income and educational attainment similar to Bethel Park, is a bit more Blue Collar/ Pink Collar, with a much smaller percentage of workers concentrated in the "Knowledge and Professional sectors"

Similar to Bethel Park, this is a place where Lamb needs to win by at least high single digits

4.) Upper St Clair Township--- Pop 19.3k--- MHI $ 106.3k/Yr--- 90% White--- 74% Degree > HS--- 2016 (46-50 R)

This was only one of two places in South Allegheny (CD-18) that swung 20% towards HRC between '12 and '16, although it was still a (46-49 R) jurisdiction in 2016....

Occupations....



Needless to say there is a disproportionate amount of Upper Middle Class voters here in what appears to be more a "Country Club Republican" part of the County....

We'll see how this area votes after Tuesday, but if the results we have seen from NoVa to Alabama in similar districts in Special Elections recreate themselves in the "Rust Belt", I wouldn't be surprised to see this Township flip hard against Trump....

5. Scott Township--- Pop 17.0k--- MHI $ 61.4k/ Yr--- 82% White, 11% Asian--- 53% Degree > HS.... 2016 (52-44 D)

Occupations:



So this one is a bit interesting, in that although it didn't have the dramatic swings towards HRC that Mt Lebanon and Upper St Clair did, but yet it is fairly highly educated with a relatively large Asian-American population, and yet moderately low MHI numbers, and one of the only Obama 2012 places within Allegheny CD-18....

Not sure how much swing is left in the '17 Special election, but would imagine a 60-40 Lamb margin would be my target numbers here....

6.) South Fayette Township--- Pop 14.7k--- MHI $ 78.9k--- 90% White/ 7% Asian--- 54% > HS Degree... 2016 (44-52 R)

Occupations....



Ok.... suspect I'm starting to run out of space on the character count for a post, but I think we're starting to get the picture that a good chunk of the voting population of the County are actually Suburban/Exurban Pittsburgh voters, like some of our well known local experts on SW PA have been stating....

So which parts of South Allegheny (CD-18) swung towards Trump compared to 2012?

1.) Elizabeth Township (+11 'Pub swing '12 to '16)--- Pop 13.3k--- MHI $ 59.7k--- 98% White--- 36% Degree > HS

Now this is a pretty old district in terms of age compared to the Allegheny CD section of the County, right over the border from Westmoreland County, and a bit removed from Metro Pittsburgh, so in some ways I would suspect the demographics more closely resemble parts of Greene and Washington County, than most of Southern Allegheny....

2.) We saw a few other marginal swings towards Trump compared to Romney '12 'Pub percentages in Jefferson Hills Township, North Fayette, and South Park Township, but interestingly enough there was only a 1% increase on the 'Pub voting percentage between '12 and '16 in these three places, meaning that although there were swings, it was mainly as a result of defections towards 3rd Party Candidates.


To finish: I don't know what if anything all of this means in the context of an extremely unusual special election in a district Trump won by + 20%.

What I do know is that the trends in the South Allegheny County portion of the district are not at all favorable towards Trump, and considering that 43% of the CD-18 vote is cast here will likely be the make or break moment for Lamb....

Like Pittsburgh Steel and some other knowledgeable posters have been saying this district isn't nearly as "rural" as is being present by the MSM on all Media outlets....

I almost spat out my coffee this morning listening to a media pundit talking talking about how the "Democratic suburbs of Pittsburgh" might flip this district....

Still, in order for Lamb to win this district it will require both a significant swing towards the Dem in South Allegheny (That is increasingly shifting Dem in the "Age of Trump"), combined with recovering enough Ancestral Dem voters in Washington and Greene Counties that as recently as 2008 were only narrowly won by McCain by the sliver of a hair off of my neckbeard.

[NOVA Green]

So slightly OT, but still tangential considering that after all this is a part of the US that is at the Heart of Steel Industry, people seem to forget that ever since FDR passed away, even in the core of heavy industrial Union Country, there is still a collective memory about the crackdown on organized labor after WW II when workers walked out in massive strikes including the Coal Mines, Steel Industry, Shipyards, etc.... since as part of no pay raises to support the war effort against the Nazis/Fascists/Japanese Colonialists our Grandparents were expecting the promise to be delivered that FDR had promised.

Harry Truman right off the bat took aim at the Coal Miners and Steel Workers, and even did the old "Boss thing" from the 1910s and 1920s and sent National Guard troops into the Mines and Mills...]

Thing about Steel and Coal Country is that there are a lot of ancestral roots, and unfortunately even most Democratic Presidents over the past 70 years haven't really shown that they are on the side of Labor....

Anyways.... Harry Truman nationalized the Steel Industry right before a General Strike in the early '50s during the Korean War, and eventually after a few brief months ended up folding to the Steelworkers demands.

Union tradition runs deep in many Ancestral Dem Heavy Industrial areas, but at the same time is it any wonder that even at the peak of the Labor Movement within these districts, there has long been a deep distrust of Democratic Presidential Candidates?

So to close it out, here is a brief news clip from the UK about the US Still Strike of '51/'52

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itFlzpQusRg

[NOVA Green]

Awesome post Nova, but I was disappointed you wouldn't continue it for all the other non other jurisdictions in Allegheny County. Totally unreasonable of me, but there you go. Also had to LOL at the admission to having a neckbeard.

1.) I do have some PDF numbers for Washington and Greene Counties, but unfortunately my regular source for easily exportable precinct level results doesn't include these two counties, nor Westmoreland as well....

2.) If I had started the project earlier, I might have been able to pull together some numbers for the other Counties in the CD, but without an OCR reader to convert PDF data to easily import/export into Excel, I would be spending additional hours of my time on this project....

3.) Yes---- I am currently in possession of fabulous neckbeard as a result of an occupational shift from Management to now working a job on the Factory Floor, where I can grow out my beard and wear my heavy metal T-Shirts and Jeans with zero worries about how my image might impact the customer perceptions of business services that we provide running the Factory Floor so long as we maintain "Outs" and "Yields"...   

[NOVA Green]

Does anyone have any info on what the unions in the District have been doing in the election/the importance of the the various unions?

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/unions-conor-lamb-pa-18

I was wondering what exactly Lamb was doing yesterday in Greene County, which after all makes up a relatively small share of the total votes within the district, speaking to that standing room crowd at the Greene County Fairgrounds to a heavily UMWA audience....

Now it starts to make a bit more sense when one thinks of the compare/contrast argument to Ancestral Dems in Washington and Greene County, which as recently as 2008 basically split their vote 50-50 in a US Presidential election.

One must also wonder to what extent the "Wildcat" Teachers strike in West Virginia, right over the border has received significant local media coverage as a major victory for a revitalized Labor Movement deep in the heart of Union Country, where only a few short decades back there was a major wildcat strike in the Coal Industry.

Here's an image of a something close to the T-Shirt that a 3rd Generation UMW/UMWA Coal Miner gave me when I was in College in Ohio in the early '90s and was bringing the UMWA to campuses throughout the region in Solidarity with the General Strike in the Appalachian Coal fields in '93, shortly after the bosses declared open war against the Miners after the Pittston Strike of '89.



Although many Union members in this region have long felt betrayed by national Democratic Political leaders it looks entirely feasible that in this case that the collective memories, knowledge, and family background does a compare/contrast of "Which Side are You On" between the two candidates to represent them in the US House....

[NOVA Green]

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

With turnout similar to past midterms: Lamb leads 49-47

With turnout high across the board: Lamb leads 51-44

I'll treat any and all polls from a House Special Election with some serious grains of salt, even from an A+ polling outfit....

Polling for US-House elections have notoriously high MOEs as it is, let alone accounting for Special Election scenarios where there is only one race on the ballot.

Still, no question this is good news for Lamb especially considering the adjustments for various turnout scenarios.

One things that amused me slightly was one of the comments downthread from a Tweet from one of the polling dudes about adjusting to reflect the data from "Republican Precincts in Allegheny County"....

After looking at the precinct data from '12/'16 the vast majority of the precincts in Allegheny CD-18 are "Republican Precincts", even if we were to adjust to screen out precincts in Mount Lebanon (Democratic Stronghold) that more often than not tend to Lean 'Pub, but swung +20 Dem between '12 and '16.

Honestly it's starting to feel a bit like Lamb might have a best of two worlds:

1.) Increased dramatic swings within the Upper-Income Pittsburgh Suburban/Exurban parts of the district, especially in some of townships where there were only +5% Dem swings between '12/'16 (With 3rd Party Vote surges).

2.) Return of ancestral Dem voters in Washington/Greene many of whom were Obama/Romney/Trump voters at the National Level, but have still continued to give local/statewide Dems a decent shake.

[NOVA Green]

Freedom map.

NoVa Green checking in....

Just got off work a few hours ago from my late Factory Line shift, so been catching up for the past few hours...

Would love to see a similar map from the '08 Pres election, and swings and trends maps as well....

OG on the Forum here, but I remember how many Dem Primary Obama Supporters in '08 accused Pennsylvania White Dems of being racists because they voted hard HRC in the Primary, even though Obama got record PA Pres numbers in the GE for any Pres Dem since '64....

Maps can change and Maps can go, but the reality of this election, but even without doing a more extensive analysis it appears that the Union Ground Game of the UMWA/USW and various other Union members phone banking going door to door likely created the critical mass to push Lamb over the top....

Looks likes Lamb victory was both a mix of traditionally 'Pub suburbs of South Pittsburgh starting to shift Democratic, combined with some of our retired Senior Retired Union Brothers and Sisters realizing that Trump's "America First" policy really means "America Last" and the new boss is just as bad as the old boss...

Hope to take some time this weekend to look at turnout models by Rep/Dem precincts, some nice graphs all that cool crap, since reality is that as we all start to look towards the Tea Leaves of the '18 GE, once we start to slice and dice precinct results it will give us maybe a better data point at the Spear Tip of the 2016 Trump Electoral College Win....

[NOVA Green]

If only Democrats were as pro-labor as Conor Lamb, they'd easily win back Obama voters in the WWC. Lamb isn't a progressive but much like Joe Biden is a good match for the WWC anyway. 

They are. The difference is they don't focus their campaigns on unions and union-friendly economic issues.

As you well know Badger, Union Employees aren't a huge chunk of the workforce in most States our Great Nation, especially since Ronald Reagan destroyed Pattern Bargaining in the early '80s....

American Workers have been screwed for decades under Democratic and Republican Presidential Administrations alike that led to the rise of Ross Perot as an independent in '92 (Which in someways appears like an early Trump template).

Still regardless of the Union reference, I still agree with your fundamental point bolded above: "If only Dems were as Pro Labor as Conor Lamb, they'd easily win back Obama voters in the WWC"....

Peter Defazio (OR-CD-04) has done extremely well in my district in "Downstate Oregon" in areas that have been swing hard Republican over the past 20 years, where Trump completely dominated in 2016.....

[NOVA Green]

Now that we have the election results available, excepting a small number of provisional and military ballots, I pulled some comparative and historical data for the South Allegheny portion of CD-18, to follow up on a preceding post that I made prior to the election....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281457.msg6102019#msg6102019

Although the subject of to what extent Ancestral Democrats and Obama > Romney > Trump Democrats returning home to vote for Lamb is an important question in its own right, as well as potential implications for the future in both PA elections, as well as elsewhere in the country, the massive shifts towards the Democratic Party in the Pittsburgh suburbs has equally important potential implications.

Republicans are absolutely correct if they are terrified about what happened in CD-18, especially within the local context of Pennsylvania politics.

These are Republican leaning suburbs that for the most part have resisted significant swings towards the Democratic Party, unlike many similar communities elsewhere over the past 10+ years.

There are a ton of similar communities elsewhere within the Pittsburgh suburbs, which means if we see similar patterns in the 2018 and 2020 General Elections has profound implications within PA politics.

Let's look at how "South Allegheny" voted as a whole between 2008 and 2017....



As we can see, generally the 'Burbs of South Allegheny vote considerably to the Right of PA, as well as Allegheny county as a whole, although we did see the gap narrow considerably in the 2016 in both the US PRES and US SEN race.

Let's look at the data from another perspective...



Here we can see that generally between '08 and '16, South Allegheny roughly voted 10% more Republican than PA as a whole, especially in Presidential Races where it voted 12-15% more 'Pub than PA as a whole in '08 and '12.

This is part of the reason why I say that although the South Pittsburgh 'Burbs have potentially been gradually trending Dem, until the Special election in CD-18 we had yet to see a real breakthrough Dem moment, outside of a handful of Communities.

As I stated earlier PA Republicans have a major issue on their hands if this pattern is replicated in 2018 and 2020 here, and in similar parts of the Pittsburgh 'Burbs.



Time to get into the meat of the matter (Or Veggie Protein options if that is one's preference)....

How did the various communities in South Allegheny Vote in 2017, and how did they swing compared to the 2016 GE PRES?





The most striking thing here is how extensive the Democratic victory in South Allegheny was, only losing 2/14 largest Townships/Municipalities (Elizabeth & Jefferson Hills), and a swing from 15-20% compared to the '16 Pres GE results everywhere, except Elizabeth Township and only a 14% Dem swing in Upper St Clair.

Much of the MSM and Atlas coverage has been focused on Mt Lebanon, but the reality is that it is only very recently that it has become anything approaching a "Democratic Stronghold", as I posted a reply on this thread earlier regarding which areas to watch closely on Election Night, and it only accounts for a relative sliver of South Allegheny and CD-18, so is perhaps much less typical of Suburban Pittsburgh than many of these other communities.

Ok... let's roll with some charts and stats of elections results by place within South Allegheny from '08 to '16....

2016 PRES Results by Place Graph...



2016 PRES results by Place Chart



Even in 2016 where South Allegheny shifted DEM, Clinton only won 3/14 of the largest places with Mt Lebanon standing out, as well as an acceptable performance in Scott Township, throw in a narrow victory in Whitehall and the "Other Category".

2016 PA SEN by Place Charts & Graphs....





2014 PA GOV by Place Charts & Graphs...





2012 PA PRES South Allegheny Charts & Graphs:





2012 PA South Allegheny SEN Charts & Graphs:






2010 PA South Allegheny SEN Charts & Graphs:





2010 PA South Allegheny GOV Charts and Graphs:





2008 PA South Allegheny Charts & Graphs:





Massive raw data dump here and still need to take some time to digest and pull up and publish the Political and Social Demographics of the various communities to mine whatever potential past, current, and future implications have to say.

Thinking my next move should examine the question to what extent high Base Democratic turnout vs Republican turnout might have potentially changed the results, similar to some of my analysis of precinct level returns from the Alabama Special elections results, where it appears that a mixture of high Dem turnout in certain places, combined with low Pub turnout in other places, and throw in a decent chunk of Republican > Dem crossover voters in Upper Incomes suburbs contributed to Doug Jones win in Alabama....

On the surface it does NOT appear that a turnout variable was a significant contribution to Lamb's win in PA CD-18, but rather a massive swing among Republican leaning voters in the Pittsburgh suburbs of South Allegheny combined with even larger swings among Ancestral Dem voters in Washington and Greene Counties (Westmoreland is still a place I have not examined in any significant detail)....

Part of the reason why I think this election is particularly significant is that unlike many other special elections it was a relatively high turnout election closer to a Midterm level Turnouts as opposed to many other recent Special Elections, where there might be a decent argument to be made that Dem Base voters turned out in much higher numbers than usual....

The story that we are seeing from the Pittsburgh suburbs appear to tell an entirely different story....

[NOVA Green]

To summarize the dump of election data by place for South Allegheny between 2008 and 2017 that I posted last night, here is a chart that I coded by color to present a more accessible visual of +/- Dem Margins that reinforces the point that I have been making regarding the historically Republican nature of these communities within the past ten years....



So, I took a little bit of time to pull up some of the key demographic stats for these various communities within South Allegheny for some of the common variables that have been associated with National Presidential election results from 2008 > 2016.

These include items such as Median Household Income, Race/Ethnicity/Age/Educational Attainment, so see if this helps explain or provide insights into changing voting alignments and swings at a larger level throughout PA, and with possible implications elsewhere within the Region.



Certain things make sense within the context of the current Trump ascendancy within the Republican Party....

1.) Upper St Clair, the wealthiest and most educated "municipality" went from being the most Republican stronghold within the district up until 2016 when Trump was on the ballot, where he only won by 3.5% (But still it went heavily 'Pub for US Senate) to being a +10% Dem CD with typically high voter turnout.

Interestingly enough it also has the highest % of school children (<18 Yrs) and this is the type of community where voters can easily swing based upon educational funding and quality type policy issues and perceptions.

2.) Mount Lebanon is an interesting recent development as a "Democratic Stronghold", since although it shares in common with Upper St Clair a high level of Educational Attainment, actually only ranks 4th in MHI within the largest places in the District, and age and ethnicity actually track relatively close to South Allegheny at large. It does have a higher % than average of school age students, and is obviously much more closely proximate to Pittsburgh, so perhaps has less of the "City/Suburban" type issue than some other places within the district?

Perhaps one of our local residents can elucidate us on why this area has been a relatively solid Dem constituency since '08?

3.) Bethel Park--- Looks a bit older and a bit more Anglo, but in terms of MHI, Educational Attainment is still solidly Upper Middle Class, and this is first major election where it has voted Democrat since before '08.

4.) Moon Township--- Really similar to Bethel Park demographically and politically, with both virtually voting in tandem with the exception of the '14 PA GOV race, and slightly lower swings towards Lamb than Bethel (Trump effect?). Only major demographic difference is that Moon Township is less Anglo than Bethel fwiw.

5.) Scott Township---- One of a handful of "Middle Class" 'Burbs here with an MHI of only $61k/Yr, but is only 82% Anglo with an older than average population and relatively high educational attainment levels.

One of the few consistent Democrat voting communities here, with the exception of '12 PA SEN and '10 PA GOV.

6.) South Fayette--- Wealthier and more educated than many places within South Allegheny, and actually a bit younger than most of the other places referenced above.

One of the larger flips within South Allegheny never having voted Dem for any of the races covered and by +21% Swing.

7.) Whitehall Borough------ The lowest income municipality of the 14 largest places within South Allegheny. One of the older places within the County and with a lower than average level of educational attainment.

Politically, it's one of only a handful of communities that Obama almost won in '08, and was actually one of the more Democratic parts of So Allegheny in '12 PA SEN and '14 PA GOV, and actually flipped and voted DEM for HRC in '16 after having voted for McCain and Romney previously.

Ancestral retired Democrats?

8.) South Park Twp---- Whiter, Younger, solidly Middle Class and lower levels of educational attainment than most of the top 14 communities.

One of Obama's best communities in South Allegheny in '08, and one of a handful of places the '12 Dem Sen and '14 Dem Gov candidates won here....

Interestingly enough was one of Lamb's worst Top 14 places within SoAlleg....

9.) Elizabeth Township---- Sure the Pub had a homefield advantage here as Lamb did in Mt Lebanon, but you are basically looking at the Whitest, Oldest, and least educated community within the Top 14 of SoAlleg.

Still, the interesting thing about Elizabeth Township is how far it swung Republican, even as other parts of the district were swinging marginally Democrat.... Basically we are right on the edge of the Westmoreland County line and perhaps there is an ancestral Anti-Pittsburgh thing going on, without the Ancestral Dem thing in parts of Washington and Greene Counties (IDK?)

I can roll through a few more using the charts provided above, and we see Robinson Township swinging hard (Educated, Upper Middle Class, Higher than avg % of Non-Anglos for the District), but then we roll into Jefferson Hills Borough, which on the surface is very similar to Robinson, except it is 96% Anglo vs 88 % Anglo, which was the only real difference that stood out to me based upon Demographics....

Now we go the Pleasant Hills Borough, which is pretty much the oldest and Whitest place here, next to Elizabeth and Whitehall, and we see one of the largest swings towards the Dem candidate of almost anywhere in the County, where the last time it voted Dem was in '12 narrowly for the US SEN!!!!

So y'all can put that in your pipe and smoke it, since I've been doing a stream of consciousness as I have been running the Demographics by Community against historical election results, so I don't have any firm conclusions about what all of this means without delving deeper into precinct level detail and Census Data....

What I suspect might well be the case is that:

1.) Senior Citizens (65+) that tend to vote regularly swung hard towards Lamb because of the perception that the Affordable Care Act and Government Entitlement Programs that benefit Seniors are under attack by the Republican Congress.

(Ancestral Democrats)

2.) Upper and Middle Class College Educated voters in the 'Burbs of Pittsburgh are starting to swing heavily, and not just in the most heavily educated places within the CD (Upper St Clair and Mt Lebanon).

3.) In general "Soft Trump" voters within even Lean 'Pub areas in Metro 'Burbs are starting to shop around, since the whole "Anti-Bush" style of Republicanism portraying a classical isolationist and protectionist ideal is being rubbed raw as the Emperor is exposed as having no clothes, and instead of focusing on keeping decent paying jobs in America and avoiding foreign engagements overseas, is basically looking like your "Old Skool 'Pub Pres", where Robin Hood means "robbing the hood", tax cuts for everyone, means "tax cuts for the rich", bringing jobs back to America means "Same old Same old and whatever manufacturing jobs come back pay 25-50% of the wages they did 20 years ago", where "protecting our borders" means sending Americas sons and daughters born of Immigrant parents back home to a land they never knew, except through the stories of their parents and grandparents.

Regardless of some minor amount of hyperbole on my last point, I do believe that in the eyes of many Trump voters, including some Millennials that I know, they did not intend to vote for the current policies and direction of the country, regardless of how much they disliked HRC and thought that maybe, just maybe Trump would be a different type of Republican than they had seen in decades.

[NOVA Green]

Now I've posted more detailed level election results for South Allegheny a few weeks back here, as well as summarizing some of the data and adding in Demographic data by place in a follow-up post...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281457.2550

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=281457.2550

Time to take a look at what the data shows for South Allegheny when it comes to the more thorny question of the question of Democratic and Republican base turnout versus swings from Trump '16 > Lamb '18 crossover voters.

This question is perhaps a bit more difficult than some of the data I posted based upon detailed precinct and municipal analysis from the 2017 Alabama US Senate election, where for example I pulled up multiple places where there was clearly a massive flip among Trump '16 > Jones '17 voters in many places throughout the State.... (See link below for example on some interesting items in Baldwin County)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279603.375

OK---- let's look at the overall Total Vote in municipalities within South Allegheny in the 2018 Special Election as a % Share of the 2016 Presidential Election Total Vote by Municipality and DEM/REP respective % in 2018 of their 2016 PRES numbers to see what if anything this might tells us of enthusiasm gap vs flip voters....



Let's repost the Demographic data chart that I posted previously by Municipality:



Let's throw in a graph I posted regarding '16 GE Pres vs '18 CD-18 Swings:



What does this data tell us?

1.) The highest turnout was in the two places with the highest level of Educational Attainment (Mount Lebanon and Upper St Clair) which had respectively 74% and 70% turnout levels compared to the 2016 General Election, and the next highest level of Turnout was in Bethel Park and Elizabeth Townships.

If we look at the % of the '18 Democratic vote compared to the '16 GE, we see the Democratic Candidate capturing 87% of the Vote in Mt Lebanon, 86% in Bethel Park, 84% in Upper St Clair, and 81% in Elizabeth Township.

We see the 'Pub nominee capturing 60% of the Trump vote in Mt Lebanon, 59% in Bethel Park, 63% in Upper St Clair, and 65% in Elizabeth Township....

1.) It's pretty clear that in Mt Lebanon there was both a mixture of Democratic Base turnout combined with Cross-Over Trump > Lamb voters (After all his home base community) even within the context of relatively high Republican voter turnout).... Overall margins swings were significantly less than we saw in many of the other largest communities within South Allegheny.

2.) Upper St Clair which is the wealthiest and most educated larger municipality, had one of the lowest swings to Lamb compared to Trump '16 %, and had the 2nd highest % level of Republican voters compared to 'Pub GE Pres numbers.

Although I have no doubt that there were quite a few Trump > Lamb voters here, it does not appear that the Upper-Income Anglo voters here (MHI $106.3k/Yr) were nearly as significant as elsewhere within South Allegheny, despite the fact that this was a + 19% McCain '08 district that in '16 became a + 4% Trump district, and then a 55-45 Dem district in '18 Special Election.

Still, it is worthy of noting that this is first time ever in recent political history that this Community has voted Democrat, and with the exception of 2016 has been the most Republican community within South Allegheny.

3.) Bethel Park--- 

If we look at the 2018 Special Election results, it's pretty clear here based upon turnout and % of choice, that there was a significant amount of Trump > Lamb crossover voters compared to many other larger municipalities within the district.... 

If we cross-ref against the other data this appears more like a moderately Middle/ Upper-Middle-Class Community within So Allegheny that is relatively close to the overall Demographic Profile.

4.) Elizabeth----.... Since 2016 has become one of the highest level Republican strongholds within this portion of the County and one of the only 'Pub 18 Municipalities in '18....

We see the lowest differential between Trump '16 and 'Pub '18 numbers, in a high turnout election for both candidates....   Sure it was the 'Pub nominees home town, but still cross-over voters appear much lower here than elsewhere within the district....

5.) Where it appears that we might seem some of the biggest swings are in places such as Jefferson Hills, Pleasant Hills, and Collier.

6.) North Fayette and Robinson are iffier since looking at the overall turnout levels, how much of the swing was a depression of the Republican vote versus voters that swung from Trump '16 to Lamb '18.

7.) Still not so sure about Moon, Scott, South Fayette, and Whitehall regarding the question of Dem/Rep turnout versus Trump > Lamb voters.

Anyways, still looking in more detail at individual precinct results, but wanted to do a first dive into the whole Democratic/Republican Base Turnout question versus Trump voters that swung towards Lamb.